One quick "woe unto me" post...

Still playing well....  Any reason to call this river?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $138.60
BTN: $41.10
SB: $20.20
BB: $32.00
UTG: $65.55
UTG+1: $225.05 - My note on this guy from PTR is that he's a HUGE loser!  He's tight as anything, but can never lay down.  He's a 10/7/2.8%3bet who rarely steals...
Hero (MP): $160.40

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with 4h 4s
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 6s 4c Jd (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50
Sweet... bring me the moneys!

Turn: ($18.50) Js (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $13, Hero calls $13
This is SUCH a bad card because I don't want to raise and make it look like I hit trips.  I plan to make a play on the river because I know he's not going to lay down.  Just keep betting, baby!

River: ($44.50) Jh (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $26.50, Hero folds
Ouch.  Fail.  Oh dear...

Final Pot: $44.50
UTG+1 wins $42.30
(Rake: $2.20)

What would you do? #189 - Overbet for value opportunity?

Somewhat of a weak one today...  sorry.  :-)

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $122.40
MP2: $76.30 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 7, 3B: 2, AF: 3.3, Hands: 112
CO: $100.00
BTN: $52.20
SB: $147.25
BB: $346.75
UTG: $94.50
Hero (UTG+1): $100.00
UTG+2: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Jc Js
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 3c Kh Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
Not really sure where he is with the hand; I don't want to bet if I feel as though he doesn't have a King.  However, I do want to bet if he does have the King.  I prefer to let him lead, though.  No dice.

Turn: ($7.50) Ks (2 players)
Hero bets $5.25, MP2 raises to $10.50, Hero raises to $18, MP2 calls $7.50
A pretty good sign that he min raises me...  At this point, I put him on trips - AK, KQ, [ugh...]KJ, etc.  Pretty good sign that he doesn't come over the top of my 3bet - he has a strong King that is likely to call any river bet.

River: ($43.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $79 all in, MP2 calls $55.30 all in
Given the above (i.e. he's not getting away from the hand), I go for max pain, with a "fishy" overbet to the pot.  If I bet pot, I miss $12 of value.  If I bet $55.30, it looks very strong.  If I just mash the All In button, it looks fishy.  Therefore, ship it.

Factoring into my decision was the idea that this guy does not have a full stack.  I doubt he's a solid player who is every laying down top trips on a non-threatening board.  

Final Pot: $154.10
MP2 mucks Kd Qd
Hero shows Jc Js (a full house, Jacks full of Kings)
Hero wins $151.10
(Rake: $3.00)

A little bluffing never hurt no one...

Speaking of steals and betting multiple streets:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $165.50
SB: $131.50
BB: $100.00
UTG: $70.00 - 0 hands.  Zippo.  Nada
UTG+1: $159.85
MP: $151.20
CO: $187.00

UTG posts a big blind ($1)

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero is BTN with 6s 7s
UTG checks, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3, UTG calls $3
I go for a steal and am surprised to be called by UTG.  Odd play.  BB knows I love to steal & iso; he's a 15/11 / 4.9% 3bettor.

Flop: ($12.50) Th 3s 4h (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $7, BB folds, UTG calls $7
Okay.  Backdoor spade draw + gutshot that he won't see when / if it hits.

Turn: ($26.50) Qs (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero raises to $30, UTG calls $20
Spades come in.  Keep betting; I'm not sure I'm happy with my bet sizing here - I'd like it to be a bit more, but I don't want to make it such that he has to make a crying call on the river.  In retrospect, I think this is a good sized raise.

River: ($86.50) 9c (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $30, UTG folds
For the remainder of his stack ($29).  Pure bluff for 3 streets.  GG sir.  Thanks for more than 50% of your starting stack.

Final Pot: $86.50
Hero wins $83.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #188 - The overbet for value Part 2

To recap, here was the beginning of yesterday's post (edited for time :-) ):


Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $104.15
UTG: $104.50
UTG+1: $440.75 - This guy is an 18/11/3.3%3b tight reg who rarely folds to 3bet (33%).  He's a reg with whom I have a TON of history.
As I've been doing lately, I'm going through my player lists and cross referencing them to PTR.  Therefore, I have his lifetime history (which may or may not play into your decision):
$-9,618 @ 240K hands for a lifetime loss of -1.74PTBB/100
VPIP 16.8%/ PFR 10.46% / 3bet 2.94% / AF 1.48 / 4bet 11.82%
MP: $108.65
Hero (CO): $152.25 - Note that we're somewhat deep stacked.
BTN: $82.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Ac Ad
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) 2h 8d 6d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Terrible check, though I was pretty certain it would induce a turn lead - (FAIL!)

Turn: ($22.50) 2s (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17, UTG+1 calls $17
Okay.  Here's what I know: He has enough history under his belt to know full well that if he himself hit a monster (set, trips, etc.), that he's not going to stack me without bet bet betting.  He has given me no inclination that he is interested in getting stacks in.  However, he seems very content to check / call down.  My check on the flop is suspect; to him, I have not given an indication that I want to get stacks in, either.  However, I *VERY* much do want stacks in - I, personally, have him on a range of JJ+ with KK being the best culprit. 

River: ($56.50) 6c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $124.75 all in
I sent this HH to Josh; he and I had a HUGE discussion over this hand.  He totally disagreed with this shove - the logic he used is that a pot sized bet is more likely to be called (say 90%+ of the time), more than a river 2.5x pot shove.


Click to see results

UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 calls $124.75
My logic is that I'm rarely ever doing this, but two things are in my mind: first, I checked the flop which makes my hand more concealed (how many times are players checking the flop when they intend to get stacks in by the river?) and like the post yesterday, this player is content in looking me up.

My shove says one of two things: F* you, if you won't fold to my turn bet, you'll fold to me now (i.e. I have AK and I'm FORCING you to to fold), or I want value from a hand that I know beats your hand.  Hence a polarizing bet, which, where in my post from 2 days ago, Ringer bet of $30 which would have been the same had he bet $24, this bet is the same whether I bet $50 or $125.  Well, maybe not "the same..." $125 is a *BIT* more than $50, but you get the idea, nevertheless.

Honestly, I put him on KK from his action.  At worst, he's got an overpair which he refuses to lay down.  He's a .7 AF, so his check / call lines are consistent with his stats.

I'm 99% certain I'm ahead here - how do I get stacks in against a guy who will only check / call the whole way down?  Shove the river for 125BBs, of course!


Again, this is a very specific circumstance, but I think I'm going to take this line in the future against players like the guy I was talking about - lak - or this guy.  Calling stations should get punished for their curiosity.

Final Pot: $306.00
UTG+1 mucks 7s 8s - FAR FAR FAR lighter than I expected.  This actually kind of shocked me, making my AA shove a pretty thin bet; he could have easily wound up with trip 6's.  My image from this guy's perspective must be pretty bad, overall... (LOL)...

Hero shows Ac Ad (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero wins $303.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Post analysis: Overall, I am *RARELY* seeing this type of move.  It is just so out-of-character for anyone to do this.  I figured, though, if he has KK, he'll call a shove as often as he'll call a pot sized bet.

What would you do? #188 - The overbet for value Part 1

Following on yesterday's post, I present a player (this is not lakofpoisonivey, FWIW) who seems to like to bluff catch, and *LOVES* to stick around.  Couple that with the fact that he had been running good (up until this point LOL) - he was on the top 50 winners leaderboard for a portion of yesterday. 

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $100.50
BB: $104.15
UTG: $104.50
UTG+1: $440.75 - This guy is an 18/11/3.3%3b standard reg who rarely folds to 3bet (33%).  He's a reg with whom I have a TON of history.
As I've been doing lately, I'm going through my player lists and cross referencing them to PTR.  Therefore, I have his lifetime history (which may or may not play into your decision):
$-9,618 @ 240K hands for a lifetime loss of -1.74PTBB/100
VPIP 16.8%/ PFR 10.46% / 3bet 2.94% / AF 1.48 / 4bet 11.82%

MP: $108.65
Hero (CO): $152.25 - Note that we're somewhat deep stacked.
BTN: $82.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Ac Ad
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) 2h 8d 6d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Terrible check, though I was pretty certain it would induce a turn lead - (FAIL!)

Turn: ($22.50) 2s (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17, UTG+1 calls $17
Okay.  Here's what I know: He has enough history under his belt to know full well that if he himself hit a monster (set, trips, etc.), that he's not going to stack me without bet bet betting.  He has given me no inclination that he is interested in getting stacks in.  However, he seems very content to check / call down.  My check on the flop is suspect; to him, I have not given an indication that I want to get stacks in, either.  However, I *VERY* much do want stacks in - I, personally, have him on a range of JJ+ with KK being the best culprit. 

River: ($56.50) 6c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $124.75 all in
I sent this HH to Josh; he and I had a HUGE discussion over this hand.  He totally disagreed with this shove - the logic he used is that a pot sized bet is more likely to be called (say 90%+ of the time), more than a river 2.5x pot shove.  But here is the hand history, right up to my river action...

I'm going to switch it up for the first time ever!  I'm not going to publish the results.  I will put a post out tomorrow morning with the results and commentary.  I'm hoping that you will comment on a few things:

• Is this a profitable line?
• What kinds of hands do you expect him to show up with?
• Would you have played this differently?

On video watching and other miscellaneous goings ons...

Since my coaching with SplitSuit, I've been reading a bit in my spare time, but rarely watching any training videos or otherwise increasing my pokery knowledge.  Mostly, I've been trying to get enough of a sample size together where I can declare victory on my new / re-invented style of play.  Sorting through the chaff (positive EV, in this case), and distinguishing what is working from what is not, has proven to be somewhat difficult; I'm running at a 5.5PTBB/100 (equating to roughly $50/hr) for the month at $100NL.  I know that as a poker player, I can expect to go through periods where I absolutely smash the games, mixed in with periods where I can't hit water if I fell out of a boat...  Right now, I'm going through a period where I am upswinging AND playing spectacularly well (again, subjective; is it that I'm playing well or getting good cards).  From that, though, it's hard to tell what my "real" win rate is and whether my being smacked by the deck influences what I think is working for me.  FWIW, if you're interested, I've written about my stylistic changes in a prior post... see here.

Well, on the recommendation of a highly-respected (though not in the 2p2 forums, by his claims) "poker authority" Doublefly (3 links for you, my friend!),  I sat down over the weekend to absorb one of CardRunner's newer videos, "A Little R&R Part 1," with Rask & Damn Ringer, 2 well established online pros in the community.  The videos were helpful; I always figure that if I picked up at least one thing I hadn't thought about before, then it was worth my time.  The video consisted of the two of them engaging in a banter about strategy regarding when to semi-bluff boards.  An example of this is as follows: you will be more profitable to bluff an Ac Kd 7s board with 4d 5d than you would with pocket 6's.  Your equity is quite a bit higher (10.4% vs. 8.8%) due to the backdoor draws that you can pick up on the turn (i.e. flush & straight possibilities), whereas with the 6's, the best that you can hope for is to hit a 6.  Deal this out over 1 million hands, and the equity difference of 1.8% becomes a lot more clear.  Their line of logic makes total sense; nothing new here; moving on...

Following the classroom learning, they got into 2 hand histories that each of them had played in prior sessions.  Damn Ringer's hand was examined first, and the setup was that he was blind stealing with 44 in the SB at $100NL.  In the BB was a player that I have particular problems with (lakofpoisonivey) when he has position on me - and Damn Ringer had the same problems.  There's a couple of directions I'd like to note here prior to dissecting the play further.

• The premise of the HH review was to discuss barrelling boards.  In their opinion, it doesn't make sense to cbet the flop (assuming its a good flop to cbet) without multi-barrelling (i.e. bet turn and/or river).  It got me thinking about the times (and keep in mind that I'm a HUGE stealer; 45%+ *AT LEAST*) where I'll cbet the flop & give up on the turn / river only to see my opponent float the flop on a bad board and get there with his 97 by the river to my 22 on an A T 3 [for example] board.
  
  Why is that happening?  Because I'm not continuing on the turn.  It becomes very easy for my opponent to float the flop and either fold or get to show down cheaply when he knows I'm going to either continue representing my hand (which he can fold to a cbet on the turn) or going into check mode (where he can turn the tables and represent himself OR get to showdown).  The power of position...  I hate being out of position...
• Said player above is not a great player, by any stretch, though he is a pretty decent reg.  I don't put him in the Rakeback pro category, but I don't put him in the QQ-Q U A D S-QQ (the nuts at $100NL) category, either.  I respect his play; let's leave it at that - he's a $9700 winner to the tune of 0.84PTBB/100 over 517K hands.  To sum up, he is an aware player, but an exploitable multi-tabler.
• This strategy of barrelling will work against certain players, but at some point, I think you need to abandon ship.  I don't think you can try to move a mountain who will look you up.  In Damn Ringer's defense, I think he had all of ~400 hands on the guy, so he didn't have a clear representation of lak's stationy tendencies.
• It felt good to see that other players (who I'd classify as in the GREAT category) have problems with the players that I have problems with.
• The HH they chose for Ringer is ironic; they earlier talked about bluffing / semi-bluffing boards where you have a bit higher equity, yet they chose pocket 4's as the HH example.

Back to the hand: The flop comes A K Q rainbow - just about the worst flop for 44 that you'd EVER want to see.  Ringer stole for $3, leaving a pot of $6 (and huge remaining stacks, which won't come into play in this recap).  Ringer donks the flop for $4 and lak calls.  The turn is a brick and Ringer decides to lead again - I think $10 into $14 (sorry if I got the exact details wrong - it may have been a little larger bet).  Lak once again calls.  Finally, Ringer decides to bet big on the river (bigger than he probably should have) $30 into $34.  Rask commented [and I agree] that he would have had the same affect if he had bet $22-24 and saved himself $6-8 of bluff money.  Regardless, lak calls and shows K3s for second pair, no kicker.

A few things of note, which got me thinking: there are players out there, like lak, who will hero call you when your lines don't entirely make sense.  Clearly, Ringer was polarized by the river.  A nearly pot sized river bet ALWAYS says nuts / air (and I don't mean literal nuts, JT, but top two, sets, etc.), because rarely is anyone 3 streeting it with less.  If I'm in lak's position, I don't think Ringer is [essentially] potting each street with a weak Ace, second pair, etc.  He *HAS* to slow down because the pot will become unmanageable, especially out of position.  Therefore, he's either got lak crushed or he's trying to bully him.

To sum up, I've been finding myself in spots similar to Ringer's, where I actually do have a showdown worthy hand and I'm not thin value betting 3 streets - or I'm firing at the flop and letting go of the hand on the turn / river.  I'm working on closing that leak... by either not cbetting bad boards, or barrelling to force my opponent off his hand.  Last night, it worked a bunch of times, where my turn cbet bluff on my SB steal forced a lay down.  The culmination of last night is a hand I'll share with you tomorrow in the "What Would You Do?" segment.  I'm curious about your opinions, because I take the exact opposite approach to what is shown in the video, I force a would-be hero call by a river overbet (HUGE OVERBET) shove.  Stay tuned!

What would you do? #187 - Fairly deep against a maniac

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $168.60
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $147.05
UTG+2: $97.30
MP1: $45.90
MP2: $257.15
CO: $32.50
BTN: $59.80
SB: $176.25 - VPIP: 43, PFR: 41, 3B: 43, AF: 1.6, Hands: 44

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Ad Qd
7 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, SB raises to $25, Hero calls $15
Any chance of folding here?

Flop: ($50.00) 6h 6d Ah (2 players)
SB bets $28, Hero calls $28
What about his lead here?  Any chance?  If you call the flop, do you call the turn and the inevitable river shove?

Turn: ($106.00) 5d (2 players)
SB requests TIME, SB bets $46.50, Hero calls $46.50
Here?

River: ($199.00) 2c (2 players)
SB bets $76.75 all in, Hero ???
Without looking at the results, good or badly played hand?


Click to see results

I'm thinking raising is pulling him off of all of his bluffs, though I have not seen *THIS* level of aggression out of him.  Stacking off 170BBs?  On a bluff?  Duly noted, sir.  This hand made my nut for the night.
Hero calls $69.10 all in

Final Pot: $337.20
Hero shows Ad Qd (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
SB shows 9s 5s (two pair, Sixes and Fives)
Hero wins $334.20
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #186 - Deep stacked with Aces up

 Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+2): $214.50
MP1: $58.80
MP2: $101.00
CO: $207.20 - 18/13 / 34% steal / 5.7% 3bet / 3.0 AF / 954 hands
BTN: $108.35
SB: $100.50
BB: $94.55
UTG: $48.50
UTG+1: $99.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+2 with As 9s
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 2s Ac 9d (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $6, BB folds, Hero calls $6
Great flop; there are ton of "better" Aces.

Turn: ($21.50) 3d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $18, Hero calls $18
I thought about raising here, but he's so deep stacked & this is such a confident bet...  Anyone raising here?

River: ($57.50) Qs (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $38, Hero ???
I think I can definitely get stacks in here; he likes his hand.  WWYD?  Is Aces up good enough for 200BBs?

Click to see results

It just feels too much like he's value betting me with a far superior hand.  I'm pretty certain he didn't hit his Queen on the river, and it is unlikely for him to have sets of Aces or 9's, which leaves him with a set of 2's or AK.  This feels so much like a value bet, though...  Therefore, I reduce my hand to bluff catcher.  As a reg, he just doesn't strike me as the type to overvalue AK


Hero calls $38

Final Pot: $133.50
Hero mucks As 9s
CO shows 2h 2c (three of a kind, Twos)
CO wins $130.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #185 - Hating life

I included positional stats (which, admittedly, I don't look at very often...) because I think it's relevant here:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/938275
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+1): $100.00
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $54.50
CO: $100.00 - 14/11 / 24% steal / 6.1% 3bet / 2.9AF (4.0 Flop AF / 41%, 1.8 Turn AF /23%, 3.0 River AF / 16%)/ 984 hands
BTN: $100.00
SB: $135.65
BB: $110.25
UTG: $27.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with Qd Qc
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, CO raises to $10.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) Jc 6s Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($44.50) 7s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $24, Hero calls $24

River: ($92.50) 8c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $54.50 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
What the hell does he have here?  WTF?!?!?!? In retrospect, I called my way into making this a profitable call, (3:1) but am I ever going to be good here?  I bail before losing a stack, which, while not good, is better than losing a stack.


I suck in this hand.  The reason I'm calling all the way, though, is his 6.1% 3bet.  Am I making a mistake folding?

Final Pot: $92.50
CO wins $89.50
(Rake: $3.00)

I have OCD... I swear I do!

I had a pretty bad session last night...  You know, the type of session where you're up around 2 buy ins and everything is on cruise control until you run into a tree: set over set twice, bad cards on the turn or river, etc. etc.  You know what I'm talking about; you have significant equity and then you're forced to bail on the turn or riv.  Aggrodonks raising their flush draws and betting you on each street only to hit their flush on the river...

Anyway, back to the title: OCD (Obsessive Compulsive Disorder).  I know I'm very meticulous; ask my wife - she'll tell you.  Well, I got involved in a hand with an unknown and a spewbox; you know the type: 60/2, calls flops, only to fold, etc.  Anyway, the hand went as follows: I'm dealt QQ in position and 3 bet the EP donk limper to $5... standard...  The unknown 3bets me (he has position on me) to $10 or $11 (he has a stack size of $25 total).  Donk flats and I decide to flat (the donk has $50 or so).  So the flop comes 9 high rainbow...  Donk checks, I check and 3bettor bets his remaining $14 all in.  Donk flats and I decide to raise the donk all in, as he clearly likes his hand.  However, I only put out a raise to $35, not realizing that he has $21.15 remaining in his stack...  so he sits on $0.15 remaining into the turn, which is, of course an Ace.  He bets the "all in" remaining $0.15 and I insta call (ldo)...  and you know what he flips over?  AKs vs shorty's AA vs. my QQ.  So, why am I pissed?  Not because of any of the actions of any of the players...  donkey sucks and I want him doing that every time...  but because now my all-in EV is F*ed...  Now it shows that I got all in on the turn, with essentially no equity, when the turn was a $0.15 all in.  Really, the donkey 4 outted me, but I only get a 4% equity instead of the 84% equity vs. him.


I am so pissed, I'm considering changing the hand history to show an all in on the flop...  OCD much?

With the set over sets (2 - one was AA (flopped A) vs. KK - AI on the turned King) and one would-be set over set (which I fortunately folded my 66 in a 3bet pot, OOP), I can say I am happy that I "only" lost $185 for the marathon session.  It's sad that the only hand I truly remember in detail is the above because it just irritated me so...  I have 84% equity vs. the donk and my HEM DB doesn't give me credit!  F THIS!


P.S.  I feel like such a nerd for writing this.

What would you do? #184 - Turned scare card to my KK

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/938270
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $109.95
Hero (SB): $147.80 - 20/16 / 69% steal / 5.3% 3bet / 1.0AF / 99 hands
BB: $123.15 - 30/7 / 0% steal / 3.7% 3bet / 1.5AF / 69 hands
UTG: $106.60
UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $101.50
MP2: $106.00
CO: $102.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with Ks Kh
6 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
I put my stats up there as they're somewhat relevant... painting a picture of my steal %, etc.  The stats are how the BB sees me.

Flop: ($6.00) Jh 8d 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50
Standard cbet; what I would do whether I have a hand or am simply stealing.

Turn: ($15.00) Ah (2 players)
Hero bets $9, BB calls $9
I don't know whether I should continue here...  My hand is unimproved, and it's very easy for him to be floating most of his range, knowing that I usually cbet my steals.  I feel like the Ace is such a bad card.

River: ($33.00) Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $33, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
What do you think?

Final Pot: $33.00
BB wins $31.35
(Rake: $1.65)

What would you do? #183 - Folding TPTK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $130.35
UTG: $101.50
UTG+1: $188.70
Hero (UTG+2): $107.35
MP1: $233.20
MP2: $99.00
CO: $44.05
BTN: $99.50 - 18/14 / 44% steal / 5.5% 3bet / 2.2 AF / 180 hands
SB: $101.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+2 with As Kd
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12.00) 7d Kh Th (3 players)
Hero bets $8.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $28.50, Hero calls $20
Alright... WTF?

Turn: ($69.00) 4s (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $67.50 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
Easy fold?  Either he has QJh or a flopped set of 7's.  Pretty certain he's 3betting TT.  KT is also in his calling range, especially in position.  He's not shy about 3betting, given his 5.5% propensity, but should I be stacking off here?

Final Pot: $69.00
BTN wins $66.00
(Rake: $3.00)

A well played hand

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $91.80
SB: $121.65
BB: $101.50
UTG: $99.00
UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $100.00 - 12/9 / 27% steal / 5.1% 3bet / 2.3 AF / 405 hands

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 2c 2s
3 folds, MP2 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 3 folds
I could go either way on this call; it is solely a position-based call.

Flop: ($7.50) 8d Qh 2d (2 players)
MP2 requests TIME, MP2 checks, Hero bets $4.50, MP2 calls $4.50
Meh... bottom set :-)...  I'll fire out a "feeler."  :-).  I have to imagine that he's raising with AA, KK. 

Turn: ($16.50) Qd (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $9.50, MP2 calls $9.50
I'm not convinced he has a Queen, so I don't want to represent the Queen myself.  A little under 2/3 pot feels like a good sized bet, so what does that leave me with?  99-JJ with a heavier weighting towards the JJ.  It also could be a AA,KK who planned on raising a clean turn, but sees a "bad" card.  He is in turtle mode, trying to bluff catch.

River: ($35.50) 8h (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $20, MP2 requests TIME, MP2 calls $20
I want him to "catch" my bluff.  I was unsure about my bet sizing, but I think it was perfect.  I don't know that he's calling $25, and $15 lets him bluff catch too lightly...  Also, if he does turn up with the Queen, he's raising on the rivered boat.

Final Pot: $75.50
Hero shows 2c 2s (a full house, Twos full of Queens)
MP2 mucks Jd Js
Hero wins $72.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #182 - Turned trips facing committing raise

A little controversy for your Monday morning coffee:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/926994
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $90.00 - 18/9 / 100% steal / inf AF / 11 hands
UTG: $88.75
UTG+1: $130.95
UTG+2: $162.00
MP1: $100.00
Hero (MP2): $208.15
CO: $101.50 - 17/12 / 35% steal / 4.5% 3bet / 3.3 AF / 100% cbet flop / 173 hands; fairly decent player, so my notes say...
BTN: $79.00
SB: $107.60 - 14/5 / 13% steal / 1.8% 3bet / 1.7 AF / 55% cbet flop / 1k hands; typifies a semi-bad reg

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with 7c 6c
3 folds, MP1 requests TIME, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($12.00) 9d 5d 7s (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, CO calls $6, SB folds
Gutter + pair.  Not so bad for an SC flop.

Turn: ($30.00) 7h (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, CO requests TIME, CO raises to $43, BB folds,  Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero says "set?", Hero folds

Either this guy has slow-played an overpair or he flopped a set.  Clearly, he likes his hand.  He wants to get all in with what he feels is the best hand.  I don't have a stack-worthy hand.  The only hands he's repping have me beat: 5's full and 9's full.  I don't believe 7x's are in his range, but if I add that in, he has me beat as far as that range: A7, 87s, 76s.  Even as I post this, in retrospect, I still am losing sleep over this fold.

Edit: A day or two later and I'm still thinking about this hand.  I realize that it looks incredibly fishy to lead the turn here.  His raise is very polarized to sets...  I just don't see him bluff raising here without the goods.  Perhaps he has 68o?  Doubtful.  I don't think he's a bad reg, so I doubt he's overplaying a pocket pair...  I also want to point out that leading the turn was a poorly thought out plan.  I should not have led the turn; I should have let him continue to bet.  Thoughts?

Final Pot: $56.00
CO wins $53.20
(Rake: $2.80)

Hello Australia... or should I say "Cheers!"

I would like to give a quick shout out to those readers, who are more numerous than "ONE," coming to this blog from the land down under!  Apparently I have 34 readers coming to visit me... reading about my daily donkishness to see how badly I can botch a hand.  To those whose toilets flush counter-clockwise, I say "Cheers!"

Thanks for coming to visit, mates.  I truly do hope you are entertained by my lunacy poker genius.

Location map of my 30+ Aussie visitors, courtesy of Google Analytics

What would you do? #181 - Where did I go wrong with TPGK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP1): $146.25
MP2: $101.50
CO: $100.00 - 16/10 / 30% steal / 2.3% 3bet / 4.0AF / 67% cbet flop
BTN: $110.00
SB: $213.25
BB: $100.00
UTG: $198.65
UTG+1: $235.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Qs Kd
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.00) 7c 8s Kh (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, CO calls $5, SB folds
Keep it cheap to get lesser hands calling me.

Turn: ($20.00) 3s (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $25, Hero calls $15
Should I be folding to a 2.5x raise?

River: ($70.00) Jc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $67 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
I think this is definitely a fold here.  Is the error on the turn?  I'm assuming he flopped a set.

Final Pot: $70.00
CO wins $67.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Quads FTW

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $97.85
BB: $100.00
UTG: $235.00
UTG+1: $132.85
UTG+2: $101.50
Hero (MP1): $125.85
MP2: $57.65
CO: $100.00
BTN: $147.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with 2c 2d
UTG raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $3, MP2 calls $3, 1 fold, BTN raises to $18, 2 folds, UTG calls $15, Hero calls $15, 1 fold
Normally, this is a dump situation.  However, UTG is capable of a wide variety of spaz plays, and BTN has been 3bet squeezing an awful lot.  BTN clearly wants to ISO the LAG, and I'm fully aware that BTN could has (at minimum) 2 overcards.  In addition, my stats are semi-LAGgy... I think I was running around a 29/20 - trying to catch the UTG in a big hand where I have the goods.  Given that justification (also the fact that both players have me covered), I make the call.  If UTG folds, it's an insta-fold for me as well.

Flop: ($58.50) 2h 9d 6c (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $30, UTG folds, Hero raises to $107.85 all in, BTN calls $77.85
Nice nuts.  BTN is pretty sure of himself given his bet.  At this point, given his half pot lead, I'm certain I put him on a big overpair.  He's not the kind of player to lead a blank flop like this without seeking value.  When UTG folds (damnit), I raise the remaining $68 of my stack to get it in.

Turn: ($274.20) 2s (2 players - 1 is all in)
Insult to injury!

River: ($274.20) 6d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $274.20
Hero shows 2c 2d (four of a kind, Twos)
BTN shows Kc Kh (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
Hero wins $271.20
(Rake: $3.00)

Easy game :-)

What would you do? #180 - Another river bluff spot?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $65.00
Hero (BTN): $167.85
SB: $61.20
BB: $35.00
UTG: $104.35
UTG+1: $103.65 - 11/8 / 24% steal / 3.9% 3bet / 2.9AF / 68% cbet flop / 899 hands
UTG+2: $23.15 - Fish (obviously)
MP1: $215.70
MP2: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 7d 6d
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, UTG+2 calls $3.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $15, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $11.50, 1 fold
I have position and I want to see how this player acts out of position.  I've been testing a few of the regs lately.  Before I start getting flack for raising an 11/8, I should point out a few things: I am squeezing with the expectation of calling UTG+2's shove, I am planning on folding to an UTG+1's 4bet, and I am in position.  His flat (which is terrible, IMO) here says he has one of two hands: JJ,QQ (with a heavier weighting towards QQ).

Flop: ($35.00) Jd 9s 9d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $18, UTG+1 calls $18
I perform a "standard" cbet flop with my represented AA, KK, AK.  He flats.

Turn: ($71.00) 4c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
I try to pot control my supposed hand, representing AK.  If a King falls on the river, I'm pretty certain that I'll be betting, but I'm more inclined to believe that he'll lead the river if a King falls, which will force me to fold.  If a diamond falls, I can certainly bet that - as well as an Ace.

River: ($71.00) Ah (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $71, UTG+1 folds
I hit my "Ace" and make him a bet he can't accept...  Ahhh... the power of position.  If I make a lesser river bet, I don't know that he folds.  I also wonder if he folds to a turn bet.  Either way, the Ace definitely bailed me out.

Final Pot: $71.00
Hero wins $68.00
(Rake: $3.00)

The Poker Meister #71 - Gets there once again

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $69.00
BB: $213.10 - Total LAG.  Would continually call 3bets only to fold to cbets.  Terrible stats and very aggro.
UTG: $56.50
Hero (UTG+1): $101.50
MP1: $54.40
MP2: $46.55
CO: $167.40
BTN: $185.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with 9s Js
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 5 folds, BB requests TIME, BB calls $2
Of course I'm raising my favorite hand.  I've been getting J9 sooted so few & far between that when I get it, I gotta play it like Aces!

Flop: ($6.50) 8h Qs 5s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
Smacked by the deck; FD + ISD...  If I'm not ahead on the overs, I'm certainly no worse than 50/50 against this LAG.  I want to build a pot.

Turn: ($14.50) 2s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.50, BB raises to $21, Hero calls $13.50
Bingo.  I love my call behind because it induces a bluff river bet.  If I re-raise here, I'm pretty certain he folds.

River: ($56.50) Jc (2 players)
BB bets $40, Hero raises to $73.50 all in, BB requests TIME, BB folds
Too bad I couldn't get him to commit his last $34, but I got a pretty decent payday...

Final Pot: $136.50
Hero wins $133.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #179 - Holding overpair; what am I beating here?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $106.85
MP2: $100.00
CO: $269.00
BTN: $100.00 - 16/16 / 29% steal / 5.0% 3bet / 7.0AF / 100% cbet flop / 115 hands
SB: $100.00
Hero (BB): $119.95
UTG: $73.65
UTG+1: $100.00
UTG+2: $132.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Js Jc
5 folds, CO calls $1, BTN raises to $5.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.50, CO calls $4.50

Flop: ($17.00) 6d 2d 7s (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $12, Hero calls $12, CO calls $12
It's fine that he cbets here.  I don't know that there's a purpose in raising.

Turn: ($53.00) 2s (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $28, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds, CO folds
So is this a mistake to fold here?  It's very thin to call and expect a river shove...  He could easily show up with 88-TT as he could QQ-AA or even Axd, etc.  He doesn't have a huge propensity for stealing (29% is not a "regular" stealer...  What do you think?  Mistake?  Not a mistake?  I'm expecting to hear pretty divided comments...

Final Pot: $53.00
BTN wins $50.35
(Rake: $2.65)

Winner winner, chicken dinner

Well, it's done.  I'd like to thank my wife, children, the academy, my mom...  Count me among those who are a winning player at 100NL.  A combination of running good and playing even better has allowed me to overcome what I felt like was an insurmountable deficit of 12 buy ins at that level prior to the beginning of the month.  Tonight marks the completion of the final step in the journey to become a true poker degenerate :-).  Of note, not only did I overcome the remaining $-57 from yesterday's 100NL session, but I smashed today's session with a 4.5 buy in win.  I am marginal (1.75 PTBB/100) winning 100NL reg, which I expect will continue to increase over time.

All told, I think the biggest difference in my play from a month or so ago and now is that I have concentrated on my blue line, otherwise known as "Won money at Showdown, W$SD."  Prior to this month, I have never had a positive blue line - let alone a break-even blue line.  In fact, it has always been a linear downward slope - in direct contrast to my red line, otherwise known as "Won money without Showdown."  It's nice to look at my monthly graph and see both lines converge towards similar points - with my blue line, in fact, overcoming my red line!  To be honest, being the aggressive player I am, I never thought I'd see the day.  I can't credit all of it to spectacular play, though; I've been getting hit by the deck, my hands are holding when I'm all in, and I'm table selecting like a fiend.  I am making a point to work on note taking, so I am slowly marking all of the decent / good regulars, which leaves the non-noted and noted "green / fish" players as my targets for tables.  Finally, I've reduced my tables to 6-7 instead of the usual 9.  I'm having more time to make solid decisions and less pressure to act quickly.  All of the above amounts to a win rate of nearly 9PTBB/100 - ~16 buy ins for the month so far.

An excerpt from my PTR page, winnings & win rate by stake

Going forward, the only thing I would like to change is time.  I'd like to be able to eventually spend more time at the virtual felt to see if I can truly make a consistent coin at this game.  I'm just shy of 23 hours in 13 days, with 9100 hands completed.  9100 hands is what some regs do in a single day!  I've been looking at the top grinder board on PTR - the top regs at 100NL earn $10K+ per month!  I need to get back on track and pump up the volume.  I need to quit my day job.

I leave you with my September graph thus far:

Disturbing for me to look at.  Quite a turnaround.

Sorry for the brag; I'm proud of the fact that I'm no longer a losing 100NL player.  Go me!

What would you do? #178 - Holding third best hand strength facing river shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $58.20
MP1: $67.20
MP2: $42.55 - 75/25/ 10.0AF / 13hands
CO: $50.20
BTN: $17.50
SB: $64.15
Hero (BB): $90.10
UTG: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 9d Td
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero checks
Easy check of my option; suited connectors seeing a flop for free...

Flop: ($1.75) 8c 2s 7s (3 players)
Hero bets $1.50, MP2 raises to $3, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.50
OESD on the flop.  Min raised by a suspect MP2.  I think this is a marginal call; a lot of the time these types are on a flush draw...  by that regard, I have 2 overs + 6 clean outs to the straight.

Turn: ($7.75) Js (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $4, MP2 raises to $7.50, Hero calls $3.50
So this was the weird part of the hand; he min bets to induce a raise, which he min raises.  He min raised the flop as well...  What do you make of this?  WTF?

River: ($22.75) 8h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 requests TIME, MP2 bets $31.55 all in, Hero ???
I love the check here because it gets me to showdown cheaply a lot of the time, but it also induces a lot of spaz plays, like it did here.  So what do you do here?  Are you giving him credit?


Click to see results

This player has been so squirrely; I'm not quite sure whether he has a flush (given the min raise on the turn), a boat, or spazzing top pair rivered trips.  Given his [limited] prior history, I have to believe that he's raising wide - therefore, I guess he raises all pocket pairs.  I doubt he's showing up with a set rivered boat.  He could have a 78 combo that rivered a boat, though - so that's a consideration.  The spade flush is the one present in my mind.  I just feel like an overshove is so bluffy by this kind of player...  I'd respect it a heckuvalot more if this were a reg.

Hero calls $31.55

Final Pot: $85.85
MP2 shows 8d Ad (three of a kind, Eights)
Hero shows 9d Td (a straight, Jack high)
Hero wins $82.85
(Rake: $3.00)

A "rare" river bluff raise

In trying to grow my game, I subscribe to Foucault's blog, ThinkingPoker.  It's a GREAT resource, for those who are unfamiliar.  Many hands he posts end in him bluff raising the river, which got me thinking about river bluffs... I just don't see them too frequently around these games.  Perhaps the river bluff defines the higher stakes games, but it is certainly absent (or at the very least, rare) in the lower stakes games.

Knowing that I don't do it enough, I'm going to try to weave it into my game - in the appropriate spots.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $35.65
MP2: $99.00
CO: $55.00 - 18/17 / 43% steal / 10.7% 3bet / 3.0 AF / 86 hands - He's been kinda squirrelly... just an odd player who picks weird spots.
Hero (BTN): $150.35
SB: $52.55
BB: $43.55
UTG: $168.90
UTG+1: $122.40
UTG+2: $212.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 7c 7s
5 folds, CO raises to $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.50) Ac 6h 8h (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4, CO calls $4
2 heart boards, and he leads the flop 50% of the time.  I'm assuming he missed so I stab.

Turn: ($14.50) Kd (2 players)
CO checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks
Fairly certain he has AK,AQ,AJ...?  I check behind to control the pot.

River: ($14.50) Qh (2 players)
CO bets $8, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $21, CO folds
This is such a bad card for an OOP player.  Either he hit his straight or flush (either of which he calls), or he has an Ace.  I think a raise here folds out almost every single pair / two pair combinations in his range... he simply can't call here without a straight or better, which is why I turn my hand into a bluff.  I think I have essentially no showdown value, and he's shown little initiative up until the river.  My line is wholly plausible: bet flop, check through turn for freebie and raise river when "my flush" comes in.

The reason I post this?  There was a time at 50NL where I was doing this more frequently, but I've gotten so many call behinds on the raise that I started thinking it wasn't profitable.  It *IS* profitable, though in the right spots - selective river raises.  I hardly ever see river bluff raises, save for maniacs (i.e. 40/20's etc.).

Final Pot: $30.50
Hero wins $29.00
(Rake: $1.50)

What would you do? #177 - A botched job

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $54.60
UTG+1: $105.45
UTG+2: $35.00
MP1: $116.85
MP2: $172.90 - 40/21 / 75% steal / 10% 3bet @ 49 hands
Hero (CO): $132.30
BTN: $128.55
SB: $207.95 - 14/11 / 45% steal / 2.3% 3bet / 2.0 AF / 1.3K hands (Textbook player)
BB: $120.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Jc Kc
4 folds, MP2 raises to $3, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, SB calls $10, 1 fold, MP2 calls $7.50
I want to iso the donkey.  I don't have a problem 3betting here.  Unfortunately, SB comes along.

Flop: ($32.50) Jh 9s 5s (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15, MP2 folds
I lead the 2 spade flop...  seems like a reasonable flop to lead, particularly since I hit my "gin" card.  I'd love to take this sucker down right now; there's quite a few draws on the board...

Turn: ($62.50) 2c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
I'm terribly unhappy about SB's flatting 2 streets.  I definitely *DON'T* want to involve stacks here; SB is polarized to monsters / draws; I can afford peeling a free card while in position.

River: ($62.50) 8d (2 players)
SB bets $30, Hero calls $30
Now here's the problem: is a 14/11 /2.0AF *EVER* leading the river like this without wanting an expensive showdown?  Is this a profitable call?  I suppose my question is villain dependent... if I have the guy as bluff leading a lot of checked turns then it's clear that this is profitable.  However, for a textbook player such as this, in similar situations in the future, this needs to be a fold.

I just feel like he shows up with busted flush draws as often as the winning hand.  Also note that QT would have gotten there, but I don't feel like a 14/11 is defending with QT.

Thoughts?

Final Pot: $122.50
Hero mucks Jc Kc
SB shows Kh Kd (a pair of Kings)
SB wins $119.50
(Rake: $3.00)

Running good, playing good, feeling good

First: Happy Rosh Hashanah to my Hebes out there - you know who you are, my tribal members!

I haven't posted graphs / stats / win rates on myself in a LONG time...  However, I feel compelled to post this up, as I'm proud of the fact that I'm working off my "debt" at 100NL...  At my peak, I was $-1,200 at 100NL.  Now, I stand at $-570 (see circled).  I can't wait to post the official break-even player post!  Admittedly, I'm running about a buy-in better than EV, but that has been fluctuating back & forth to positive / negative.

The coaching / leakfinder session helped SO MUCH!  It didn't feel like it at the time, but I have definitely improved my game based on suggestions from Mpethy & SplitSuit.  I've also improved my confidence.  I highly recommend both of their services.

What would you do? #176 - Holding overpair against a strong turn bet

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $105.40
BB: $101.50
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $103.70
MP1: $100.00
Hero (MP2): $133.00
CO: $119.25 - 13/10 / 45% steal / 2.6% 3bet / 1.8 AF / 1.1K hands
BTN: $100.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ts Tc
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 9h 7s 3h (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, CO raises to $13.50, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($34.50) 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $23, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
This bet feels very much like a set up to shove the river.  I wonder whether it's a mistake to call the flop raise.  What did I do wrong here, and what would you do differently (if anything)?

Final Pot: $34.50
CO wins $32.80
(Rake: $1.70)

What I'm up to lately - a quick status update

A few things I've been thinking about / doing lately:

• Had a Leakfinder session with Mpethy.  I think it was very successful; he helped find a bunch of leaks which will likely increase my winrate.  A few of the holes:
• Dump or limp 22-66 in UTG & EP positions instead of raising.  I have accordingly adjusted by limping small pocket pairs in those positions and folding to a raise.  Also, I am raising KQ and [sometimes] AJs.  Raising KQ makes sense: there are 5 hands that dominate KQ - 4 of which are usually 3 betting.  I actually really like and prefer limping the small pocket pairs from early position - a lot of the time, it acts as a delayed steal when it folds around to the SB / BB.  The flop can be any texture and betting $1.50 into a $2.85 pot usually is enough to take it down.  FWIW, I'm also limping suited connectors.
• I was calling steals with small pocket pairs and decent hands that out-range a steal.  I should either be 3betting or folding to a steal in that spot rather than flat and play the rest of the hand out of position. 
• I am leaking money from the CO by either calling too many 3 bets or cbetting too much.  I need to stop stealing as much from the CO; reduce my range to a smaller range than the BTN.  I also need to stop flatting 3bets in position.
• Had a coaching session with SplitSuit.  A few things learned there in particular to specific hand situations.  Nothing earth-shattering or game changing.
• One note that I had was raise-sizing.  I am playing around with changing my raise sizes; prior to now, I was raising 3.5x from EP & MP positions and 3x from CO & BTN.  I am now raising 3x from all positions.  He suggested raising even as low as 2x from EP such that I can profitably call a 3bet because the raise pot 3bet would raise to 8BBs or so, less than 10% stacks of a full 100BB stack.  There does not seem to be a discernible difference in calls / 3bets from 3.5x down to 3x.  It also makes the pot a bit easier to play OOP, post flop, because the pot size is a bit smaller.  FYI, I am still keeping to the formula of 4x + 1BB per limper for raised pots; therefore a raise after one limper would be to $5.
• I am note-taking on showdown hands and off-normal behavior.  Prior to my coaching session, I was taking a note on overall play (i.e. tagging a player as green for LAG, making them easily identifiable prior to sitting down).  Now I am detailing their 3bets, what they're showing down, and what they're calling to my 3bets.
• Try out 3betting an aggressive player (18/15, etc.) in position more, with lesser hands such as JTs and take a note on their reaction.  I haven't implemented this yet; I'm a bit scared to "random" 3bet a tight-ish player, but I leave it as room for growth.  FWIW, I tried 3betting in a random position last night and induced a fold.
• I've been playing 100NL solely this month.  I'm currently finding it easier than 50NL.
• There seems to be far more loose, aggressive players there - and when they try to make a "play," it usually does not make sense; i.e. they bluff in spots where they are so polarized to nuts / air with a heavy weighting towards air.
• The aggression at 100NL is a step up from 50NL.
• I'm getting squeezed FAR more often.  I emailed SplitSuit about this problem, and maybe the readers have an opinion.  There are two occasions where I'm squeezed:
• I open with 77-JJ from the UTG, EP positions and get 1 or more callers.  A 10/7 or 8/8 -type player with a 3.5% 3bet always seems to 3bet my $3 open (with $7.5-$10 in the pot already after the 1 - 2 additional callers) to $15-$18 from the SB / BB spots.
  
  What am I expected to do here?  Is there something obvious I'm missing?  I've been opting to fold, but this seems like a HUGE profitable spot for SB / BB squeeze with literally any two cards.  I think the choice is to either 4bet or fold; I think flatting is bad, even with position.  By the time SB/BB 3bets, the pot is now about $35.  If I 4bet him, I'm 4betting to $25-30, but this seems HUGELY bluffy - declaring I don't have AA, KK, making a 5bet (bluff or not) shove very easy and profitable.  I feel like a 4bet is committing a TON of money with a marginal hand that could be dominated already.  Am I going through a weird stretch where these players are luckboxing with cards, or is this standard?
• Similarly, I flat / set-mine with 22-TT from a later position to an EP's 3x open.  Whether or not there are additional callers, the SB / BB who is a 12/10 10/7, etc. with a 6%+ 3bet always seems to 3bet up to a similar $15-18.  I am asking the same questions as above, other than the fact that I am not the original aggressor.
  
  First, should I be opting to 3bet the original EP raise instead of over-calling?  Second, this is a much different spot, where I cannot reasonably expect to 4bet because I would have 4bet prior to it getting to the would-be squeezer.
•  Usually, in both cases, the original raiser will wind up folding and all others will drop like dominoes, resulting in a nice payday for the squeezer.  HELP!!!
• Once I got over the fact that I'm playing a lot more money on the table, which was contributing to my weak play, I realize that I have a solid game at the 100NL level - I am definitely competitive.
• I dropped from 9 tables (at 50NL) to 6 tables (at 100NL) - still more overall money on the table, but not double.  I don't know whether I will add tables in the future; the quality of my decisions seems to be a lot better than what I would be doing in a 9 table session.  I think the 6 table format reduces time pressures and allows me more time to make better decisions.
• I am table selecting better, as a result of my more frequent note-taking.  With Full Tilt's auto-waitlist feature, where I can automatically add myself to every table and accept / decline the tables as they become available, I can hunt out tables where I either don't have a note / tag on the player or are marked green, and decline tables with "red" tags.
• What else?  I'm building up a brick-n-mortar library.  I have a HUGE selection of ebooks, but very few tangible, paper books.  I've always thought the idea of having at least some of the classics is a cool idea, so I've been buying books on ebay as they come available.  A few of the books I've purchased so far on my "spree":
• Super System Limited Edition (hard cover) - Doyle Brunson ($17.00 + free shipping)
• Super System 2 Limited Edition (hard cover) - Doyle Brunson ($10.50 + free shipping)
• Professional No-Limit Hold 'em: Volume I - Ed Miller, Matt Flynn, Sunny Mehta ($7.53 + $3.38 s/h) - The best intermediate poker book on the market IMO.
• Elements of Poker - Tommy Angelo ($12.50 + $4.00 s/h) - A great read on the game outside of the table.
• Caro's Book of Poker Tells - Mike Caro ($12.51 + $4.00 s/h)
• Ace on the River - Barry Greenstein ($10.01 + $2.00 s/h)
• Check-Raising the Devil - Amy Calistri, Mike Matusow ($10.01 + $2.00 s/h)
• The Mathematics of Poker - Bill Chen ($5.50 + $4.00 s/h)
• Sit 'n Go Strategy - Colin Moshman ($10.01 + $2.95 s/h) - I'm currently reading this; I am told that this is the bible on SNG tournaments.  So far, so good.
• Harrington on Hold'em Volume 1 - Dan Harrington, Bill Robertie ($7.03 + $2.25 s/h)
• Harrington on Hold'em Volume 2 - Dan Harrington, Bill Robertie ($6.55 + $2.25 s/h)
  
  $140 in 9 books...  Why do I obsess about owning possessions like this?  Add to that a purchase of 1 year of Card Player magazine for $15, and I've spent more on indirect poker training this year than all other years combined.  WTF?
•  That's all for now.  I'm hoping to get a few constructive comments on the squeeze issue that I'm running into.  I don't think I have a particularly high fold to 3bet or what, but it just seems like such a profitable play!  Figure that you're looking at a pot of $7-$10 and you risk $16-18 to win $7-10.  You need to win 2 out of 3 times to be profitable there, right?  From what I've seen, these squeezers are winning far more than 2 out of 3 times!
• One final thing: is there a stat for displaying squeeze attempts?  I would like to add a squeeze % attempt to my HUD.  I think it would become useful for exploiting the times where there is a habitual squeezer to act and I flat AA, KK.

Sorry for the long post!

What would you do? #175 - Facing flop shove holding PP Aces

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $120.05
CO: $99.00
BTN: $100.00
SB: $121.90
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $130.00
UTG+1: $142.35
UTG+2: $84.35 - 8/8/ 100% steal / 0% 3bet / inf AF / 9 hands
MP1: $129.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Ad Ah
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $15, UTG+2 calls $12, 1 fold, SB calls $12

Flop: ($48.00) 2d Qc 8h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $69.35 all in, SB folds, Hero ???

Again, am I making more out of this than it actually is?  Easy call, right?  If he shows up with a set, GG sir.  I don't think folding here is ever going to be profitable with AA.

Hero calls $69.35

Turn: ($186.70) Kh (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($186.70) 8c (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $186.70
Hero shows Ad Ah (two pair, Aces and Eights)
UTG+2 shows As 2h (two pair, Eights and Twos)
Hero wins $183.70
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #174 - Aces up facing HUGE overbet shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $90.00
SB: $90.40
BB: $101.50
UTG: $117.90
UTG+1: $124.50
UTG+2: $127.50 - 47/20/ 67% steal / 0% 3bet / 5.0 AF / 15 hands
MP1: $72.50
Hero (MP2): $199.75
CO: $101.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Jh Ac
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds
Not normally a call in this position, but this guy has been very active in limited hands.

Flop: ($12.00) Jc Kd Qc (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $7, CO folds, UTG+2 raises to $17, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($46.00) Ah (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

River: ($46.00) 7s (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $107 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Hero folds
I have no idea what to do here.  Any help?  I don't even know what to say here.  Am I making more of this than it actually is?

Final Pot: $46.00
UTG+2 wins $43.70
(Rake: $2.30)

Struggling with demons - betting a checked river

Phil Laak

I'm half-way through reading the September 2010 issue of Bluff magazine and came across a great excerpt from Phil Laak's article "Random Truths."

"Random Truth 6: If you know they are going to call but need to bluff to win the pot, you will do a lot better by just losing what is already in there.  Don't bluff in this spot.  It is a leak."

Wow.  Not that he's the innovator of this concept; I had been figuring this out and thinking about it myself over the last 2 months, but I've never seen it in writing.  I suppose it's common sense, but I've been chasing down this demon WITH A VENGEANCE, to get rid of my own leak.

I think I've had 2 types of leaks stemming from this branch of action:

• When the pot is large and I know I don't have a showdown-worthy hand (i.e. missed all of my draws, etc.), I will not get anywhere by shoving the remaining half of my stack in - of course I'm getting called!  If my opponent calls the turn bet committing half of his stack, he's going to call the river for the other half.  I am working hard to get rid of this leak, and I've been very successful as of late.
• When the pot is small and I have nothing, don't bet pot to try to take my opponent off of his hand.  The risk / reward is too great.  I am learning to manage my bet size in this type of situation.  For example, if I am looking at a 10BB pot, will a 10BB bet take my opponent off his hand any more than a 4 or 5BB bet?  I've taken many opponent who were drawing off of their hand - but I've misread plenty of opponents who have a marginal hand that can call a river bet due to real size of the bet; i.e. it's worth it to my opponent to call a 10BB bet with a top pair-type hand.  He's not raising, just catching bluffs.  He's going to call a 4BB just the same.
  
  One last thing about small pot river bets: Why should I be risking dollars to win pennies?  If it's going to take a big bet to win a small pot, why is it worth it?  I need to overcome my desire to win every single pot.

What would you do? #173 - Holding TPTK on a 3bet PF pot

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $21.00
UTG+2: $54.40
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $15.15
Hero (CO): $116.60
BTN: $65.50
SB: $50.00
BB: $84.10 - 18 / 13/ 100% steal / 4.8% 3bet / 6.0 AF / 46 hands (stats AFTER hand below)
UTG: $42.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ac Kd
1 fold, UTG+1 requests TIME, 4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, BB raises to $6.50, Hero calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14.50) 8d Kh Jd (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($34.50) 4s (2 players)
BB bets $17.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
I put him on AK, AA, JJ.  I think this is a straight-down-the-middle coin flip situation.  There are the same amount of combinations of AK as AA, JJ.  The concern I have is that I don't want this hand to have to call a stack off on the river.  I basically have a bluff catcher.  Thoughts?

Final Pot: $34.50
BB wins $32.80
(Rake: $1.70)

Driverless cars? Pshaw!

Check out the freakonomics entry on Street Smarts.  According the author, Eric A. Morris, cars are in the cards for our not-so-distance future.  I believe it; do you?  It's an interesting read if you're a techno-weenie like me!

Hand of the night - Straight flush

Nothing interesting.  I get a decent payday... nothing great, but still...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter


Hero (UTG+2): $71.90
MP1: $90.10
MP2: $12.65
CO: $52.55
BTN: $26.45
SB: $17.30
BB: $25.00
UTG: $50.35
UTG+1: $74.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Qh Th
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, MP1 raises to $6, 5 folds, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 5h 8h Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($26.75) 6d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

River: ($26.75) 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $21, Hero raises to $58.90 all in, MP1 folds
Did I get a little overzealous?  Perhaps raising to $42 gets me paid?  I figured there's not much difference between $42 & $59, so shove & make it easy...

Final Pot: $68.75
Hero wins $65.75
(Rake: $3.00)

Quick shout out to PushMonkey for the VeryJosie bounty

I played in Bam Bam & Amir's "PokerWit vs. Bam Bloggers" (linked for appreciation of the $200 overlay PokerWit added to the prize pool) tournament on Monday.  A few hands into the tournament, PushMonkey offered a bounty to knock out VeryJosie - 5 smackers!  I love a challenge (would have done it for a simple link from a blog, in fact) and was successful in getting Josie into a coin flip situation (my AJs vs. her pair of 10's) - for Josie's tournament life.  An Ace (I think) in the window sealed the deal and sent Josie to the rail.  It's the second time I've knocked out Josie, FWIW (first time was in her inaugural tournament, the Very Josie, which I will likely play again tonight - knocking her out twice in 3 days should be pretty cool).

Thank you, PushMonkey, for covering my buy in for the tournament.  Very cool!  Congratulations to the Danks for Joanne's takedown, BTW.  I was rooting for either she or Buddy (as I understand it, who took 3rd) as my second picks to Memphis Mojo to take down the thing.

What would you do? #172 - Facing flop shove holding overpair (JJ)

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter


UTG: $53.27 - 23/7 / 22% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.1 AF / 145 hands
UTG+1: $14.75 - 19/4 / 6% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.6AF / 193 hands
MP: $29.41
CO: $24.90
BTN: $26.70
Hero (SB): $32.40
BB: $6.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with Jh Jc
UTG raises to $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.75) Tc 9c 7d (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $3.75, UTG+1 raises to $14 all in, CO folds, Hero folds, BB folds, UTG folds

Am I making more out of this than I should be?  Easy fold here, right?  I have him polarized to monster / air with the air being AK.  It's just such a weird shove; $14 into $6?   At minimum, he has 25% equity against me, but I'm weighing him far more heavily to AA,KK.  Auto fold?

Final Pot: $11.25
UTG+1 wins $10.70
(Rake: $0.55)