The Poker Meister #42

Stackage (though not full stackage :-( )!

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/447814
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $16.52
UTG+1: $50.03
MP1: $13.80
Hero (MP2): $34.50
CO: $17.23
BTN: $19.47
SB: $7.51
BB: $28.86

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with Jc 9c
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.35, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.10, UTG+1 calls $1.10

Flop: ($5.65) 4s Qc 2c (4 players)
SB bets $2.50, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($10.65) 7c (2 players)
SB bets $3.66 all in, Hero calls $3.66

River: ($17.97) 2s (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $17.97
Hero shows Jc 9c (a flush, Queen high)
SB shows Qh Jh (two pair, Queens and Twos)
Hero wins $17.08
(Rake: $0.89)

What would you do? #42 - AKs high vs. [small] river shove

The facts: 50/17 @ 6 hands. No particular read, except for the fact that he seems a little off in his play.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/439586
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $4.25
Hero (BB): $31.30
UTG: $17.40
UTG+1: $32.15
MP1: $21.70
MP2: $5.60
CO: $36.50
BTN: $16.65

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Kc Ac
UTG raises to $0.75, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $1.25, 4 folds, Hero raises to $3.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2
MP1 has raised 2 out of the 6 hands. He's also been in 3 of the 6 I've spent with him. He just sat down.

Flop: ($7.35) 9s 7h 3h (2 players)
Hero bets $4, MP1 calls $4
With the exception of the spades, this is a pretty dry flop.

Turn: ($15.35) 6s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks
His flop call / turn check behind is strange. I'm narrowing his range down to a flush draw. Suited connectors or perhaps AKs like me?

River: ($15.35) 9c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $14.45 all in, Hero ???
His story does not seem to make sense. He checks through the turn, but shoves the river? What do you do here? Call or fold?



Click to see results

Hero calls $14.45
Final Pot: $44.25
Hero shows Kc Ac (a pair of Nines - Ace kicker)
MP1 shows Jd Kd (a pair of Nines)
Hero wins $42.10
(Rake: $2.15)
In retrospect, this is probably not all that difficult of a call. The only reason I put it up here is because I always marveled at the people who call A high... Tonight, I was one of those people.

Quads FTW!!!

The case against limping AA or other premium pairs. It's too easy to not know where you are in the hand... Had he raised, PF, I would have been off the hand fast. BTW, villain is a semi-solid player; ultra tight (over 40 hands, he's a 5/2.5) In fact, I've seen him show down 3 hands total, 2 of which were in the blinds, and showed down very strong (he got 2-paired over 2-paired in a blind, and the hand below) and won with JJ. However, if you limp a good pair, be able to get away from it:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/441660
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $24.90
Hero (BB): $49.00
UTG: $13.40
UTG+1: $25.00
MP: $30.25
CO: $41.35
BTN: $4.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 5s 8h
5 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks
Crap beer hand...

Flop: ($0.50) 5h 5c 4s (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
- Nice flop. Hopefully, the SB catches up.

Turn: ($0.50) 6s (2 players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
- And we have a nibble. I am not going to raise because I will fold out any bluff in his range.

River: ($1.50) 5d (2 players)
SB bets $1.45, Hero raises to $4.25, SB raises to $10, Hero raises to $31.45, SB calls $14.15 all in
- Hmmm... Quick check for a straight flush - no possibility. Does he have a straight? With a straight, are you stacking off here? It is too easy to be beaten by a boat. The only likely conclusion I can draw is a set of 4's bettered by running 5's full or 6's full. Needless to say, I am surprised:

Final Pot: $49.80
SB shows Ac Ad (a full house, Fives full of Aces)
Hero shows 5s 8h (four of a kind, Fives)
Hero wins $47.35
(Rake: $2.45)
If I'm him, I just have to consider the possibility that my opponent is stronger than me. The way I've played this hand is not exactly tricky. I carried him along the whole way, completely passively. I think he could have saved himself quite a headache by calling the raise. Obviously, he's not maximizing his return overall, but there is any infinite combination of hands that I can be checking a BB with. Besides that, I am flatting his lead on the turn. I have to think that I am raising his lead on the turn if I have 6's (i.e. two pair) or 4's. If I have 4's, am I raising / shoving his lead / 3bet on the river? Again, I was very surprised that he limped AA in the SB, but different strokes...

The Poker Meister #41

This time, for [near] stacks... I think he wound up with $2.00 left. Funny thing was that he was on total tilt afterwards. I wound up stacking him again on the very next hand! Good times had by all (except him)!

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Hold'em - 7 players - 7
http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/440719
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $5.00
SB: $4.00
BB: $27.81
UTG: $32.49
Hero (UTG+1): $39.61
MP: $25.00
CO: $25.82

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG+1 with 9h Jh
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, MP calls $0.85, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.05) Js 9s 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, MP calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.55) 2c (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP raises to $7.75, Hero calls $4.75

River: ($20.05) 7h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $12.75, Hero calls $12.75

Final Pot: $45.55
Hero shows 9h Jh (two pair, Jacks and Nines)
MP shows Qh As (Ace Queen high)
Hero wins $43.28
(Rake: $2.27)

A quickie run down of Poker Tracker / PT3

Jordan over at HighOnPoker has requested a quick summary of Poker Tracker 3.0 (PT3) and its affects on my decision making during play. Since winning his hand ranging contest a few weeks back, I feel obliged to respond... hopefully it will help some of my readers, though, hopefully it will help me. You know what they [who is "they"?] say: you know when you truly know something if you can teach it to someone else. Happy belated Hanukkah to you & your family, Jordan (even though you say you're a self-hating Jew)!

Online, particularly when multi-tabling, it is hard to notice who is playing a loose style and who is playing tight. In the same vein, it is equally hard to evaluate who is playing aggressively and who is playing passively. Therefore, PT3 includes, by default, two primary pieces of information a new user should be referring to: the Voluntary Put Into Pot (VPIP) and Preflop Raise (PFR). The two gauges make up part of the default HUD setup for PT3. The two data points should be your entrance criteria for a hand against an opponent. Therefore, I have come to rely on PT3's two aforementioned stats to help assist me with my decisions. Granted, these stats are not perfect; i.e. you want to have an adequate hand sample size of 50 or more (BARE MINIMUM), and those numbers, on the surface, don't give scenario descriptions (such as raising position, tendency to steal, etc.). However, they do give a good idea as to the holdings and style in which the opponent is playing.

For example, if I see a player with a VPIP 35 / PFR 6 over an adequate hand sample size, I can safely assume that although his limping range is wide (likely including all Aces, suits, connectors, and the standard pairs, suited connectors and broadway) and his raising range is very tight (limited to pocket pairs TT+ and / or AK & AQ). When I see that 35/6 player limp, I generally want to raise him pre flop because if he calls, I generally know I'll be able to able to push him off the hand post flop (with the knowledge that his wide range misses a lot more than my more clearly defined range). When I see him raise, I'm going to be folding out everything but the very top of my range (referring back to his raising range of 6 PFR). Is this perfect? No. In live poker, I can visualize my opponent, and make reads based on what I see his physical actions are, coupled with his bet sizing and timing. However, online, we are not blessed with such tells. Therefore, we are forced to go with the hard data we have, which is the hand histories.  Hand histories are automatically saved on your hard drive when you're playing a hand.  Several sites also give you a chance to buy hand histories.

Another stat in the default HUD configuration includes a stat called aggression factor which measures a player's tendency to bet or raise vs. check or call. It is a basic measure of his or her tendencies. I put little stock in this number, however, because if a player is a 4/4 and has an AF of 20 over an adequate sample size, he's clearly playing AA, KK, QQ and should be leading / betting most flops, turns and rivers (thus making that type of player exploitable because he'll bet my sets for me, or I can dump the hand when I miss).

Besides the default HUD configuration, I am constantly looking at other data, which I sometimes include in my posts. This data can be viewed by clicking on the player's associated HUD window:

• Cbet flop: The percentage of time the player will lead a raised flop. This number is useful in determining whether I can check / raise the flop if I'm out of position, and take note of my opponent's action when in position (i.e. if his cbet = 100% and he checks the dry flop, does that mean he hit a monster or missed entirely).
• Attempt to Steal (ATS): The percentage of time a player will attempt to steal the blinds, pre-flop. This number is an assessment of any time a pot is folded around to the player in the CO, BTN or SB and opens the pot. At the level I play ($25NL / $50NL), this number does not seem to be all that important, as I have taken the tact of stealing north of 50% lately, without any pushback from my opponents. They either don't notice the constant steal, or don't care. Once can actually make a living (not literally) off of stealing blinds. On the flip side, I have noticed that the bigger ATS I've seen is in the neighborhood of 30%, which leads me to believe my opponents are not doing the same. However, I've seen opponents around 50%, and I know that if it's against my blinds, I can re-raise or call / lead and usually take down the pot for extra profit.
  NOTE: If you are going after blinds continually, you should note that it is tough to steal from short-stackers. Their response is a simple shove, which they can employ quite effectively. They know you're stealing, and they know you can't call a 20BB 3bet with T2o.
  
• 3bet pre-flop: The percentage of time a player will 3 bet pre-flop. Critical for certain situations; I have found players who will 3bet my ATS's and I know are coming up with air, making it safer to 4bet them back. I have found players who are 3betting every raise, which tells me that they are 3betting light (and getting lots of folds). I have found players who 3bet 1-2% of the time... they're only 3betting AA, KK.
• Folds SB / BB to steal: If I find a lot of resistance from my targeted steals, I will give up raising my BTN with 72o and range upwards, limiting my steals to a more restrictive QTo steal instead.

All of that said, I am in the process of [lazily] switching over to Holdem Manager (HEM). I have it all set up, but am experiencing a bout of technophobia because I don't want to move away from what I know and love. However, HEM can get me tendencies for each street, based on position, in a nice table, where the default PT3 layout falls short. Regardless of the tool you select, if you're playing online, you're playing at a disadvantage by not using data mining software.

Suckout of the day

After getting continually sucked out on for the past 3 months...I'm entitled to a pretty brutal suckout of my own, right? I mean, come on... I'm allowed to be proud of this when it happens, right? So I hit a 6 outter with my QQ vs. KK vs. AA. I never post suckouts, but this was a pretty awful one:

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/439142
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $10.05
MP: $5.00
CO: $24.65
Hero (BTN): $43.09
SB: $42.46
BB: $5.65
UTG: $4.65

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Qh Qd
UTG raises to $1, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.35) Tc 8h 8s (3 players)
UTG bets $1.50, UTG+1 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, UTG raises to $3.65 all in, UTG+1 calls $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

Turn: ($14.30) 9d (3 players - 1 is all in)
UTG+1 bets $5.40 all in, Hero calls $5.40

River: ($25.10) Jh (3 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $25.10
UTG+1 shows Ac As (two pair, Aces and Eights)
Hero shows Qh Qd (a straight, Queen high)
UTG shows Kc Kh (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Hero wins $10.26
Hero wins $13.59
(Rake: $1.25)

The Poker Meister #40

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/438723
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $11.44
Hero (MP): $33.53
CO: $7.18
BTN: $15.00
SB: $30.26
BB: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.25) Hero is MP with Jc 9c
1 fold, UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, CO calls $1, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.75
Donkey alert for UTG!

Flop: ($3.25) Qh 4d 7s (3 players)
UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, CO calls $1.25, UTG calls $1

Turn: ($7.00) Jd (3 players)
UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, UTG calls $1.25

River: ($10.00) 2c (2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2

Final Pot: $14.00
UTG shows 5d 6s (Queen Jack high)
Hero shows Jc 9c (a pair of Jacks)
Hero wins $13.30
(Rake: $0.70)

What would you do? #41 - Rivered baby flush vs. pot lead

The facts: VPIP 73/ PFR 13/ @ 16 hands. No particular direct reads against this player. What are you doing with the pot-committing river lead?

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/437166
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $19.60
UTG+1: $17.35
UTG+2: $5.23
MP1: $5.00
MP2: $12.19
Hero (CO): $38.68
BTN: $31.04
SB: $44.02
BB: $13.21

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 5s 3s
UTG raises to $0.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25
I'm getting to see a flop, with 80BB effective stacks, for the price of 2BBs with suited connectors. Not the best SCs, but they'll do. Particularly, I'd bet a 5 or 3 paired would be good. I'm not putting this player on a great / strong hand.

Flop: ($2.00) 2s Js Th (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, SB calls $0.25, BB folds
So I hit the spade draw + backdoor flush draw. I'll definitely float, in position, with that kind of draw.

Turn: ($2.75) 8c (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, SB calls $2.25
Now UTG gets serious, but he still has around $15 behind. I have the implied odds to make a call in this spot. PLUS, I have the SB coming along with me, which gives me extra odds.

River: ($9.50) 6s (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $9.50, Hero ???

Do you fold here? Do you push here? What about SB's hand? Call? Why?


Hero calls $9.50, SB folds
Clearly, the lead for pot surprised me. I wasn't sure what to make of it. I certainly missed value here; we were deep stacked and I only took about 1/4 of his total stack. I quickly ruled out folding. The problem I have with raising is this: I can really only min raise without committing my stack. The bet he makes is so large that there is no room for anything other raise than essentially a shove. Am I willing to put my stack on the line for a bottom flush? Anyone disagree with the logic?


Final Pot: $28.50
UTG shows Qd 9d (a straight, Queen high)
Hero shows 5s 3s (a flush, Jack high)
Hero wins $27.08
(Rake: $1.42)

What would you do? #40 - Top pair Q kicker vs. turn shove

The facts: VPIP 25/ PFR 13 @ 8 hands. Nothing otherwise special about this player.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/437164
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $24.05
SB: $5.00
BB: $5.35
UTG: $4.20
UTG+1: $16.80
Hero (UTG+2): $33.55
MP1: $18.60
MP2: $20.60
CO: $11.80

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG+2 with Ad Qs
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, MP1 calls $0.85, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.90) Js Ac Jh (3 players)
Hero bets $1.75, MP1 calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75

Turn: ($8.15) 9h (3 players)
Hero bets $2.50, MP1 calls $2.50, BTN raises to $21.45 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Too tight? Should I be folding in this spot? With $10 in the pot, and the way BTN had flatted 2 streets, I can't imagine he has anything else other than a Jack. The heart draw puts a bit of fear into him, so he ends it right there. Bad fold?Hero folds, MP1 folds

Final Pot: $15.65
BTN wins $14.90
(Rake: $0.75)

What would you do? #39 - Flsuh vs. running trips

The setup: I've been getting KILLED on this table. Everything that can go wrong, has gone wrong; my KK vs. a 42/x LAG - LAG rivers 2 pair on me. My AK vs. same LAG's K8, LAG turns trip 8's on me. I'm sure you're familiar with the luckbox of the idiot LAG. Why is it always that I seem to pay off the loser players? Why is it that they always luckbox on me?

Anyway, this was another donkey at the table... After 80-someodd hands, he was a 33/8 / AF 8.0/ cbet 100%/ steal 20%. He's a donkish player; in my prior experience, his bets don't make a lot of sense and he seems to steal at a good clip:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/430452
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $74.95
BTN: $50.00
SB: $78.65
Hero (BB): $50.00
UTG: $50.20
UTG+1: $50.00
MP1: $50.45
MP2: $85.80

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Td Qd
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1, CO calls $1, BTN requests TIME, 1 fold, SB calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.50
I'm normally not making this call, out of position, but there is a bevvy of players already involved in the pot, over-limping, and I have a suited 1-gapper. For $0.50 more, I'll see a cheap flop.

Flop: ($4.00) 3d Kd 7d (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $3.50, CO folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $7, MP2 calls $3.50
Only one hand beats me... I think my raise was not nearly enough (if I'm going to raise this flop). However, my goal is not to push him off his hand, but to keep him drawing on me.

Turn: ($18.00) 7c (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP2 calls $5
Another stupid bet size. I should have bet out for around $10 or so... Regardless:

River: ($28.00) 7s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $17.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Is this an auto-fold? What hands do you put him on?



Click to see results

Hero folds

Final Pot: $28.00
MP2 wins $26.60
(Rake: $1.40)

What would you do? #38 - Top pair vs. river shove

The facts: 34/3/ AF .8/ with no cbets or steals... @ an "adequate" sample size. Basically, he appears to play loose PF poker with weak / tight post flop play. What do you think here?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/428363
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $46.40
SB: $56.55
BB: $10.00
UTG: $52.45
UTG+1: $50.00
Hero (UTG+2): $62.70
MP1: $54.75
MP2: $10.00
CO: $41.30

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Js 9s
2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, BB checks
The Poker Meister

Flop: ($2.50) 8d 5h Jh (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, CO calls $1.25, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop top pair.

Turn: ($5.00) 2d (2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO calls $3


River: ($11.00) 8s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $36.55 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Are you making this call? Smells like a busted flush draw, but it could also be a float of 8's rivered trips. I feel like this is uncharacteristic of him to push, given his low AF.



Click to see results

Hero folds

Final Pot: $11.00
CO wins $10.45
(Rake: $0.55)

Yeah, they're that bad....

I'm currently finding the $25 games at Poker Stars are incredibly easy and loose. The following is somewhat of a cooler, but how can you call a push of about 180 BBs with QQ?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/427013
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $24.75
MP2: $5.00
CO: $21.75
BTN: $6.25
Hero (SB): $56.90
BB: $5.00
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $13.05
UTG+2: $42.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with Ac Ad
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1, 2 folds, CO raises to $21.75 all in, 1 fold, Hero raises to $56.90 all in, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $41.75 all in
Deep stacked, ~180BBs, is it an EV+ move to call a shove? I thought for a long time, waffling between shoving and calling here, but I wanted to iso the CO. The two players had the best cards possible - eliminating the worry of possible straights, and 2 outs each...

Flop: ($107.50) 7d 4d Ks (3 players - 3 are all in)

Turn: ($107.50) 8h (3 players - 3 are all in)

River: ($107.50) Td (3 players - 3 are all in)

Final Pot: $107.50 - Winner! 258 BBs! Weee!!!
CO shows Jh Js (a pair of Jacks)
Hero shows Ac Ad (a pair of Aces)
UTG+2 shows Qd Qh (a pair of Queens)
Hero wins $42.00
Hero wins $62.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #37 - Rivered flush vs. shove

16/9/1.6/43/33 @ 457 hands

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/419683
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $2.15
CO: $25.00
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $27.75
BB: $27.71
UTG: $24.88
UTG+1: $10.42
MP1: $44.79

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 5s 2s
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50
I call a 16/9 with a hand that has a lot of potential to either hit hard or miss entirely. I'm also in position.

Flop: ($3.00) As Qd Ks (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB folds, BB calls $1.25, MP1 calls $1.25
I throw out a feeler - does MP1 have a set or two pair? Perhaps JJ, TT, but I think he'd fold here.

Turn: ($6.75) 4h (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, BB folds
Best non-spade card in the deck; I now have an inside draw to go with my flush draw.

River: ($15.75) 8s (2 players)
MP1 bets $38.29 all in, Hero ???
Spades get there, and MP1 shoves. What do you do here?


Click to see results

Hero calls $18.50 all in - Bad play? Is this bad luck that he shows up with two spades? I'm thinking he has a set here, but I'm not sure whether I did anything wrong (other than arguably calling the pre flop raise).
Final Pot: $52.75
Hero mucks 5s 2s
MP1 shows Js Ts (a flush, Ace high)
MP1 wins $50.12
(Rake: $2.63)

What would you do? #36 - Middle pair facing large river lead

21/8/inf AF /0% cbet / 18% attempt to steal

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/417175
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $23.30
MP1: $53.47
MP2: $6.41
CO: $150.16
Hero (BTN): $26.45
SB: $13.50
BB: $32.67
UTG: $25.93

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 8d 9d
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.35, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.10, UTG+1 calls $1.10

Flop: ($4.40) Jd 5d 5c (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.50, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $7.50, Hero calls $5
This particular check / raise is suspicious. For a 21/8, AJ is certainly within the realm... But this feels more like a diamond draw or a naked bluff. I'm certain he's not showing up with a 5 here, but why is he check raising so strong? Limped overpair?

Turn: ($19.40) 8h (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
I add to my outs with the paired 8.

River: ($19.40) 6s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12, Hero ???
Am I the only one where this line is not making sense? What are you doing here?


Click to see results

Hero calls $12 -He checks through the turn, but then takes a HUGE stab at the river. This is an utterly confusing hand and confusing play. I think he has certainly polarized himself to monster / air. However, I have to feel that given the c/r 'ed flop, he's making me pay for a draw on the turn.

Final Pot: $43.40
UTG+1 shows Ad Tc (a pair of Fives)
Hero shows 8d 9d (two pair, Eights and Fives)
Hero wins $41.23
(Rake: $2.17)

The Poker Meister #39

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/415908
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $4.82
MP: $4.54
CO: $81.72
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $5.16
BB: $31.95

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 9h Jh
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $1, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.35) Jd 6s 3h (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50
Top pair + Backdoor heart draw.

Turn: ($7.85) 9s (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets $3.75, UTG calls $2.32 all in, CO calls $3.75
Turned two pair.

River: ($17.67) Qs (3 players - 1 is all in)
CO checks, Hero bets $4, CO folds

Final Pot: $17.67
UTG mucks Td 6c -??? WTF ???
Hero shows 9h Jh (two pair, Jacks and Nines)
Hero wins $14.07
(Rake: $0.88)

What would you do? #35 - Overpair facing decent river bet

13/6/9.0 AF/100% cbet /0% attempt to steal @ 63 HANDS

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/415901
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $5.00
UTG: $24.15
UTG+1: $19.62
UTG+2: $16.27
Hero (MP1): $27.50
MP2: $12.87
CO: $5.15
BTN: $24.94
SB: $24.53

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with Ks Kc
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds
Crappy position, but 2nd best pair.

Flop: ($2.05) Qd Jd 4h (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BTN raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.25
So right here, what am I doing? Am I making a mistake calling here?

Turn: ($9.05) Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4, Hero calls $4
Getting deeper into the hand, and I've gone into shell mode, calling down.

River: ($17.05) 2h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $8, Hero ???
He's clearly not phased by the Ace, nor the backdoor heart draw. Should I be calling this? The only two hands I can put a 13 VPIP on is AQ & 44. Opinions?



Click to see results

Hero folds - Figuring that I already took this hand WAY further than I should have; I have no additional information other than the fact that he likes his hand alot.

Final Pot: $17.05
BTN wins $16.20
(Rake: $0.85)

Been awhile... here's an interesting hand / thought on equity

I was out on vacation, so it's been awhile since I last posted. Sorry about that. I've been running better lately, but I'm starting to learn how to maximize my equity in the hand, as you will see below.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/415167
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $26.75
SB: $74.65
BB: $6.45
Hero (UTG): $50.51
UTG+1: $19.82
MP: $27.71
CO: $13.42

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 6h 5h
Hero calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, 3 folds, SB raises to $2.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2.25
I will normally fold this type of hand, 3 bet, squeezed between the UTG+1 LAG & the SB 21/15. However, looking at the stack sizes, SB & I are playing 200BB effective stacks. My sole consideration for calling this hand was exactly that: stack sizes. If I hit with this hand, I am potentially getting paid handsomely. In addition, SB has 3 bet around 1 time in a few hundred hands. Clearly, he has a premium hand - be it JJ+ or AKs.

Flop: ($8.50) 5c 6d 8s (3 players)
SB bets $5, Hero calls $5, UTG+1 folds
This is a decent player... he's not going for the straight with a 3bet PF, and there is no flush draw on the board; he has QQ+. At this point in the hand, I have around a 70% edge. I don't think he's slowing down, though.

Now, I'm not sure what overpair he has here: he could have QQ, KK, or AA - and then again, an 8 could show up to counterfeit my bottom two. Given the way I've been running lately, I've come to expect the 8 to pair on the turn... therefore, instead of getting it all in here, I'd prefer to wait until the turn - to make sure I dodged his outs and increased my equity.

Turn: ($18.50) Th (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB requests TIME, SB raises to $66.90 all in, Hero calls $27.76 all in
It's a safe turn. I don't think he's 3 betting PF with TT, therefore I can make the call for stacks with 80+% equity.

River: ($104.02) 7c (2 players - 2 are all in)
And I finally fade the set and paired board!

Final Pot: $104.02
SB shows Kc Ks (a pair of Kings)
Hero shows 6h 5h (two pair, Sixes and Fives)
Hero wins $101.02
(Rake: $3.00)

The Poker Meister #38

I think this hand is starting to heat up for me... Look out!

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/404270
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $5.00
Hero (UTG): $28.90
UTG+1: $48.95
MP1: $5.00
MP2: $14.75
CO: $16.80
BTN: $28.75
SB: $14.40

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with Jh 9h
Hero calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1.00) 5d 7h Th (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75, SB folds

Turn: ($3.25) Qc (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, MP2 calls $1.25, BB folds

River: ($5.75) 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, MP2 calls $2.50 - I think I maybe missed a bit of value here.

Final Pot: $10.75
Hero shows Jh 9h (a flush, Jack high)
MP2 mucks Ad Tc
Hero wins $10.25
(Rake: $0.50)

November, another mediocre month

Perhaps this is the kind of result I can expect out of $50NL - and my first month at that level was more of an anomaly? I ran my profits up $500 within the first week or two of the month, then went on a big downswing and back up again. Since that point, it has been down hill. I seem to continue to get my money in good but get sucked out on. My head is getting screwed on a bit better, though, so perhaps December will be better. October was difficult, though, with my withdrawal of the bulk of my funds (thus I was under-rolled) plus the holidays, giving my little time to play hands. I also started my Poker Stars account back up, with a $50 swap with a friend + a nice little contest win over on Jordan's blog High On Poker. Thanks Jordan!


I once again made Iron Man status in the Iron Man challenge / bonus. As with last month:

1. I am eligible for $100 in the mid year bonus.
2. I can convert medals to dollars.
3. All of the poker played allowed me to qualify for free CardRunners training through totallyfreepokertraining.com and stoxpoker.com.

Full Tilt poker profits: $59.72
Poker Stars poker profits: $84.65
Live poker profits: $70.00
Rakeback bonus profits: $301.08
Full Tilt bonus profits: $100.00 (Holiday Hundred Bonus)
Total: $615.45

A quick rundown of my stats: 2K hands played on stars in 16 hours + 39K hands played on Tilt in 97 hours. My hold'em All In Luck calculator says that since the beginning of the month, I've run $-271, which says that I've overcome my negative expected value in all in situations.

The Poker Meister #37

It sure has been awhile since my lucksackery with J9s... This is definitely a small pot, but a nice win for the Poker Meister!

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/401873
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $5.00
SB: $25.00
Hero (BB): $31.40
UTG: $10.20
UTG+1: $33.70
UTG+2: $7.45
MP1: $20.35
MP2: $4.75
CO: $26.80

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Jc 9c
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.10) 8s Qc 3c (4 players)
Hero bets $0.75, UTG+2 calls $0.75, MP2 raises to $4.50 all in, BTN folds, Hero calls $3.75, UTG+2 folds
Flush draw + Open ender - this guy isn't pushing me out for $4.50. I'm hoping the UTG+2 comes along for the ride so I opt to flat.

Turn: ($10.85) 6h (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($10.85) 7c (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $10.85
Hero shows Jc 9c (a flush, Queen high)
MP2 shows Ts Qh (a pair of Queens)
Hero wins $10.35
(Rake: $0.50)
I pokerstoved this hand afterwards, and it turns out that I'm a slight underdog on the flop @ 46% equity. Either way, I'm not folding this hand.

What would you do? #34 - Overpair facing turn raise

MP is an 18/9 / aggression factor: 5.0 / 0% 3bet (meaningless) @ 68 hands

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/401205
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $25.35
BTN: $5.00
SB: $5.00
Hero (BB): $27.75
UTG: $5.00
UTG+1: $11.95
MP: $25.35

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Js Jh
2 folds, MP calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, MP calls $1

Flop: ($2.60) 7h 3h Th (2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, MP calls $1.75

Turn: ($6.10) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, MP raises to $7.50, Hero???

Click to see results

Hero folds -I think I misplayed this hand. If he has a set, then he just made a boat. I was convinced of a fold because I just didn't see him with this type of aggression on the turn. I think I was likely ahead, and he was betting a heart draw + 2 overs. In addition, my thought was that I'm not really deep into this hand, and MP flatted the flop bet.

I think my bet was weak here, 1/3 pot. However, my intent is to avoid building a large pot in this spot, with an overpair + paired board. Would an 18/9 from MP flat A7? What about 33, 77, TT? I think I folded this hand without thinking about what realistic hands beat me... I don't want to get it all in on the river (which is where it's heading) with an unimproved overpair.

Final Pot: $10.60
MP wins $10.10
(Rake: $0.50)

What would you do? #33 - Top / bottom pair facing shove on spade draw board

69/12 / 4.0 / 50 @ 26 hands

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/397997
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $15.93
SB: $5.00
Hero (BB): $31.67
UTG: $5.00
UTG+1: $30.13
MP1: $29.02
MP2: $25.00
CO: $29.69

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Ad 5s
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 5 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) 5c Qs Ks (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.60) As (2 players)
Hero bets $1, UTG+1 raises to $4.60, Hero calls $3.60

River: ($10.80) 4d (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $24.78 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds - Am I getting run over here? Spade draw on the board against my 2 pair... Should I be making this call?

Final Pot: $10.80
UTG+1 wins $10.26
(Rake: $0.54)

What would you do? #32

10/7 /.8 AF / 61 hands

Too nitty to fold an overpair? He's not been aggressive yet...

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/397994
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $31.10
BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $10.85
MP1: $16.20
MP2: $28.60
Hero (CO): $45.70
BTN: $36.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Js Jc
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.65) 4s Tc 7c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BTN raises to $4, BB folds, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($10.65) 4h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6, Hero ???





Click to see results

Hero folds

Final Pot: $10.65
BTN wins $10.15
(Rake: $0.50)

Odds scenarios

As I was constructing the post recapping my poker education, I thought about past history and how I got where I am. I remembered back to the spreadsheets that I used to keep, detailing my wins / losses, player notes, etc. - in the years prior to Poker Tracker. I came up with odds charts, to help me with my pre-flop hand decisions and pot odds / hand equity calculations. I have 4 sheets in the online google document:

• Pot Odds Calculator
  Helps you determine whether or not, based on the bet you face and the current pot size, if you are getting odds to make a proper call for the current street.
• How to Figure Out Hand Equity
  A collection of articles on figuring out the equity for the hand you hold (i.e. counting outs & determining the percentage chance that you will make your hand).
• Preflop
  The chance of running a particular hand through a flop, turn and river against a random set of X players, and ending up winning the hand.
• Scenarios
  A basic set of scenarios for pre-flop, flop, and turn cards, and your percentage chances of making the particular hand. It is similar to the Pot Odds Calculator sheet, but more detailed.

Perhaps these spreadsheets may help one of my readers become a more educated poker player.

The spreadsheets can be accessed by this link:
Link

What would you do? #31

BTN is a known regular, my favorite Russian friend [and yours], Valera49. He's a TAG, with stats of 14/10/AF 3.4/cbet 71%/Steal 28% @ 2541 hands. Tons of sample size here.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/387245
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $20.00
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $37.45
MP: $49.25
CO: $19.00
BTN: $51.30
Hero (SB): $103.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Qd Qc
4 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BTN raises to $13, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero requests TIME, 1 fold - He's no dummy. He plays well and he's profitable. I can't see him 4 betting 2.5x without AK, AA, KK. I've not seen him do this without the nuts - and I've 3 bet him plenty of times. Perhaps it's nitty, but I don't see that I have very much equity here. What can he honestly have? QQ? JJ?

Final Pot: $10.50
BTN wins $10.50

What would you do? #30

I've been sitting at this table where this erratic player - almost maniac has been raising crazy amounts. One hand, he'll raise UTG to $25, the next, $6, etc. He's a 64 / 39 / 3.3 / 50 / 0 over ~40 hands. What do you do here?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/387221
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $93.95
MP2: $10.75
CO: $18.75
Hero (BTN): $55.20
SB: $51.05
BB: $28.95
UTG: $50.55
UTG+1: $22.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 6h 6d
UTG raises to $17.50, Hero ???


Click to see results

I think this is clearly a shove / fold situation. However, if I shove, he has about 2:1 odds to make a call. I think at best, I'm 50/50 with him. Do I really want to get it all in at a spot where I have 50% equity? As a note, I got it all in at a later hand where I held AK to his J9 and he spike a 9 and runnered Jacks to win my stack. He sat out shortly thereafter.7 folds

Final Pot: $1.25
UTG wins $1.25

Englightenment... my short history

I was reflecting on the defining moments of my poker career. I can map them out perfectly, as they are well known points that most of you probably know already and have for sometime. (For me, I'm a little dense, and it takes me longer to learn things.)

• The ability to count outs and determine the equity my hand holds. I first read about hand equity when Justin "WPThero" Rollo of PokerSavvy Plus fame wrote an expose' on the dailyhandquiz.com. If you are unaware of how to count outs, it is along the same lines as the article written by the same author: Making a Tough Call By Justin Rollo. I remember that I immediately followed it up with a ton of research on odds and found the rule of 4x and 2x (essentially counting your outs and multiplying them by 4 for the flop and 2 for the river for your percentage of winning the hand), which is a bit easier to use. Based on that information, I formulated a spreadsheet to quickly figure out my equity at each round, as compared with the pot odds that were being offered. I was now able to figure out how to quickly know where I was in each and every hand. I can approximate that I became aware of the rule of 4x and 2x back in early 2009, 2-3 years into my unsuccessful (but lucky) poker career. You can read a few of the original posts on this blog to see what a donkey I was.
  
• However, I was still finding myself running into situations where I was completely unsure as to whether I was ahead or behind in the hand. Back in the days prior to using Poker Tracker or knowing my co-blogger, omgitsjoshua, situations would arise where I would limp Js3s in the UTG and a J high flop would hit a 2 flush (diamonds) drawing board... Was I ahead or behind? Was my opponent calling my bet because he was drawing to a flush or because he had a better J? I would commit way too much stack on way too weak holdings only to find out that I was dominated the whole time by AJo. I always knew enough to fold Ace rag, which likely kept me out of trouble for the most part, but my pattern for online poker was usually deposit $20 -> play $10NL poker for about a month -> re-deposit. Upon meeting up with omgitsjoshua back in June 2009, after 2 hours of talking and watching him play, I understood how to play a tight aggressive style. (Hint: TAG is not limping Qs3s and folding to a raiser.) I immediately understand ranges and positions. Within 2 months of playing TAG, I earned back all of my prior lost poker money (and continue to this day to show strong profits).
• Finally, learning bankroll management is the last critical piece to become a poker semi-pro. I learned that I was playing in games FAR above my bankroll when I first started out on Full Tilt and other sites. I never had a huge problem with bankroll management, though. I started with $100 on Bodog.com, where I was able to run my bankroll up [and down] I would deposit $20 at a time on my prior poker site, sportsfanatik.com (Cake Poker network), play $10NL and sometimes go broke by night's or week's end. However, when I joined Full Tilt, I built my roll up to $100+ and immediately broke into 1-tabling the $25NL games, which far exceeded my bankroll. I posted a nice table of how to properly manage a bankroll, taking care not to enter into games where you cannot afford the buy in. Learning bankroll management miraculously kept me from going broke. I honestly believe that joining Full Tilt was my last straw - I told myself that if I went broke on FT (lost my initial buy in & 100% match), I was not going to continue feeding the credit card into the site with regular deposits like I had been on my prior site. I had spent ~$500 to that point in the 3 years I had been playing online, and I thought it time to give up if I could not figure out how to profitable. Fortunately, the rest, as they say, is history...

I think anyone with ambition can learn to become a good, profitable poker player. It takes dedication to get there, but you can certainly do it. Start with fundamentals and work from there. I believe the above 3 bullets outline the basic tenants a poker player should have - adding in the finer details such as button steals and 3 bets as he or she become accustomed to how the game is played.

What would you do? #29

Villain is a 12/7/2.0 / 71% cbet / 12% attempt to steal

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/377098
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $60.60
BTN: $95.75
SB: $14.25
BB: $32.00
UTG: $39.45
UTG+1: $51.55
UTG+2: $12.90
MP1: $27.20
MP2: $29.70

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Qs Qh
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3.25, BTN raises to $12, 6 folds
Bad fold? 3bet percentage is in the 2-3% range. What do you do in this spot?
This hand was compounded by the fact that I think I lost a total of around $200 during the session. I *COULD NOT* run any worse - set of 6's all in on the flop busted by a turned set of Kings, etc... Perhaps it got to my head, but what would you do for 20+% of your stack?

Final Pot: $8.75
BTN wins $8.75

Royal flush time

Too bad I didn't get paid! I made $.25 on the hand :-(

What would you do? #28

This is not so much of a what would you do, but an education lesson. I *RARELY* call down Ace high, but I felt this was a situation that warranted it.

Villain is a 12/10/6.4 / 70% cbet / 28% attempt to steal @ 773 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/374549
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $51.95
Hero (UTG+1): $53.65
UTG+2: $57.00
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $63.35
CO: $54.70
BTN: $40.00
SB: $59.70
BB: $12.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Ah 9h
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 6 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($1.25) Qs Js Kh (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1
A BB limped pot with a gut shot and backdoor flush draw. I figure to take down this checked pot. BB opts to smooth.

Turn: ($3.25) 6c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Check through; not sure where I am in the hand. I'm happy to go to showdown here, because I think I have showdown value.

River: ($3.25) 5c (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $2 -His lack of interest / check on the turn says that he's on a draw... to the ten. The only question is whether the 5 or 6 connected with him. I snap call immediately and find that I read the situation exactly correct.

Final Pot: $7.25
Hero shows Ah 9h (Ace King high)
BB shows Th 8h (King Queen high)
Hero wins $6.90
(Rake: $0.35)

Winning Stacks by Ed Miller

Ed Miller, Author of Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em and Professional No-Limit Hold 'em: Volume I, has written a good strategy article on stacking your opponent. I know I take this to heart in my game, and perhaps I expose myself to a lot more risk as a result (i.e. opponents are willing to stack off light against me because I put so much pressure on them when I know I'm ahead), but to me, this is what the game is all about. Assuming you believe in statistics, which my brain tells me I do (my heart doesn't - which is how I explain running less than expected value for my hands), then the name of the game is getting your stack in the middle when you're a significant favorite.

Here is the link: Link.

Enjoy!

What would you do? #28

Villain is a 20/15/2.4 / 71% cbet / 49% attempt to steal @ 214 hands.

I'm not sure whether I stepped in this & had it coming to me, but check it out:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/374542
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $51.95
Hero (BTN): $56.30
SB: $56.50
BB: $63.35
UTG: $53.45
UTG+1: $40.00
MP1: $59.45
MP2: $12.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 9d 8d
4 folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3
CO has proven that over 200 hands, he LOVES to steal - 50% of the time to be exact. I feel comfortable 3 betting light here. I had been 3 betting him light in prior hands and he would call the raise / fold the flop.

Flop: ($9.75) 8c 8h 2s (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3, CO raises to $6, Hero calls $3
CO is definitely defining his hand here by min raising me. I'm putting him on air (AK & the like) or an overpair. Perhaps he is testing me because of our prior history where I'm raising his steals.

Turn: ($21.75) 4c (2 players)
CO bets $10, Hero ???
Are you happy to get it all in here? Are you smoothing the bet? There aren't any draws out there, and he's betting half pot. What is your line?

Click to see results

Hero raises to $25, CO raises to $40, Hero raises to $45.80 all in, CO calls $1.45 all in

River: ($104.65) Jd (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $104.65
CO shows 2h 2d (a full house, Twos full of Eights) - Perhaps I got what I deserved by 3 betting light, but I think he's raising with a lot of junk in the CO / BTN by having a 50% attempt to steal...
Hero shows 9d 8d (three of a kind, Eights)
CO wins $101.65
(Rake: $3.00)

Dropping down a level

I took a cash out of most of my Full Tilt funds on Wednesday, leaving me with $600.00. I took it out as a precaution against the UIGEA Act that may or may not go into effect on Dec. 1, which stipulates that financial institutions are no longer allowed to process financial transactions for online gaming companies.

SO, a to make a long story short, staying at $50NL with $600.00 is going to be a difficult thing. 12 buy ins makes it easy to go broke, which is more or less what happened Thursday and Friday... my account dropped to around $350. I decided that I needed to drop down in stakes to $25NL until I can establish a reasonable account balance - at which time I can move back up to $50NL.

I forgot how easy $25NL is... these players are just terrible! Granted, I have a limited sample size, but I have included some of the more amazing hands that just stupefied me when I saw the players call me down.

Didn't win this one, but these villains were pure DONKEYS with a capital "D":
Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/382892
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $38.29
MP1: $3.20
MP2: $23.80
CO: $13.36
Hero (BTN): $37.39
SB: $12.55
BB: $5.00
UTG: $36.37

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Kh Ac
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, BB raises to $5 all in, UTG+1 calls $4.75, Hero raises to $10, UTG+1 calls $5
Okay. I've established that I have a monster hand. If you're UTG+1, are you calling a 4 bet for 1/3 of your stack (we're deep stacked here) with KTo? PURE DONKEY!

Flop: ($25.10) 8h Tc Jh (3 players - 1 is all in)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8, UTG+1 calls $8
PLEASE QUEEN!!! PLEASE!!!

Turn: ($41.10) 5c (3 players - 1 is all in)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($41.10) Js (3 players - 1 is all in)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
Perhaps I can all in shove to represent a Jack, but I already contributed enough to this pot.

Final Pot: $41.10
UTG+1 shows Ts Kd (two pair, Jacks and Tens) - LOL!!!!
Hero shows Kh Ac (a pair of Jacks)
BB mucks Ad Qd
UTG+1 wins $24.70
UTG+1 wins $14.35
(Rake: $2.05)

Here's another hand; tough to fold AQo high, huh?

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/382899
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $69.47
UTG+1: $7.15
Hero (MP): $28.57
CO: $12.50
BTN: $5.00
SB: $6.08
BB: $36.77

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with Kh Kc
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BB raises to $2.65, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $2.35

Flop: ($10.10) 7h Jc 5d (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero calls $6
AJo? JJJ? Pretty strong bet for a donk bet

Turn: ($22.10) 2s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, BB calls $8
He doesn't have anything!

River: ($38.10) Jh (2 players)
BB bets $17.77 all in, Hero calls $9.57 all in
$9.57 into $38? CALL!!!

Final Pot: $57.24
Hero shows Kh Kc (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
BB shows Qc Ad (a pair of Jacks)
Hero wins $54.38
(Rake: $2.86)

Always good to stack off with AKo high! ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE POKER MEISTER - J9s

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/382900
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $10.28
SB: $32.22
BB: $5.00
UTG: $31.51
Hero (UTG+1): $35.81
UTG+2: $26.36
MP1: $8.42
MP2: $5.00
CO: $13.07

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG+1 with Jh 9h
1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, UTG+2 raises to $1.10, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.85

Flop: ($2.55) 9s Jd 8d (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $2.55, Hero raises to $7.75, UTG+2 raises to $25.26 all in, Hero calls $17.51
PLEASE have AA, KK!

Turn: ($53.07) 8h (2 players - 1 is all in)
Damnit, he has a better two pair

River: ($53.07) Js (2 players - 1 is all in)
Redeemed!

Final Pot: $53.07
Hero shows Jh 9h (a full house, Jacks full of Nines)
UTG+2 shows Ad Kh (two pair, Jacks and Eights) - Nevermind; he had AK high! DONKEY!!!

Hero wins $50.42
(Rake: $2.65)

A Rakewell hand (the Mighty 24!):

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/382902
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $41.77
CO: $25.00
BTN: $33.86
SB: $12.42
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $12.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 2c 4s
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.75) 5d Ac 3c (3 players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1, MP folds, SB calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.75) Jh (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

River: ($5.25) 6h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

Final Pot: $13.25
SB mucks Ah 2h
Hero shows 2c 4s (a straight, Six high)
Hero wins $12.59
(Rake: $0.66)

But don't try to turn the Poker Meister against me!

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/382904
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $10.10
Hero (BB): $39.89
UTG: $9.84
UTG+1: $8.17
UTG+2: $9.75
MP1: $5.91
MP2: $33.60
CO: $26.52
BTN: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Td As
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.25) 9c Ad Jh (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3.50, MP1 folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $11.75, UTG+2 calls $6 all in

Turn: ($20.25) 3d (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($20.25) Ts (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $20.25
Hero shows Td As (two pair, Aces and Tens)
UTG+2 shows Js 9s (two pair, Jacks and Nines)
Hero wins $19.24
(Rake: $1.01)

What would you do? #27

First hand at this table.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/372442
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $46.00
CO: $10.00
BTN: $114.45
SB: $12.85
BB: $13.50
UTG: $11.85
Hero (UTG+1): $50.75
UTG+2: $47.25
MP1: $39.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Ac 9c
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BB calls $1, Hero calls $1, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.25) 8d 9d 9s (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: ($5.25) 3d (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, MP2 calls $3.25, BB folds

River: ($11.75) 5c (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP2 raises to $26.75, Hero ???
This is probably an easy one for everyone *EXCEPT* me... I really screwed this hand up! What would you do here? Raise, call fold?





Click to see results

Hero calls $21.75

Final Pot: $65.25
MP2 shows 8h 8s (a full house, Eights full of Nines)
Hero mucks Ac 9c
MP2 wins $62.25
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #26

Stats on Villain:

Total Hands - 47
VPIP - 29.79%
Pre-Flop Raise - 23.4%
3-Bet - 21%
Agression Factor - 1.6


Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/365312
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $10.00
Hero (MP1): $54.07
MP2: $5.00
CO: $9.46
BTN: $7.89
SB: $4.75
BB: $51.34
UTG: $37.87

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with 4d 4c
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, BB raises to $1.25, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.60) 6s 2c As (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.60) 4s (2 players)
BB bets $2.60, Hero raises to $5.75, BB raises to $50.09 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero Folds

Start anew every session

Poker is a game that has no memory of prior sessions. Remember that fact the next time you take a session loss (big or small).

The next session you play has no bearing on the prior session or sessions. You could be completely broke at the table today, but sit back down with a full stack tomorrow and crush it. You can't control the cards - they're random - but you can control the actions. Use your own memory to store away the misplays and correct your leaks. Learn from your mistakes.

However, don't *EVER* bring what happened at yesterday's session to today's table.

A literal bad beat

Thankfully, this was not my hand. However, this is the very definition of a "bad beat." A friend of mine sent this to me - he unfortunately was the hero. In a casino with a bad beat jackpot, he would have been the winner! Royal flush over Kings full... that's when you know you run bad!

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/373527
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $100.00
UTG: $43.25
UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $70.55
MP2: $139.00
CO: $16.65
BTN: $68.45
Hero (SB): $119.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with Kd Kh
UTG raises to $3.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $3.50, Hero raises to $18.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $15, 1 fold, BTN calls $15

Flop: ($60.00) Ad Ts Ks (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $24.75 all in, BTN requests TIME, BTN folds, Hero calls $24.75

Turn: ($109.50) As (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($109.50) 3d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $109.50
UTG shows Js Qs (a Royal Flush)
Hero shows Kd Kh (a)
UTG wins $106.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #25

Villain is a 23/7 with aggression factor of 2.0. I have no data on cbets for him... 33% attempt to steal @ 97 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/371153
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $8.25
BTN: $50.00
SB: $8.00
BB: $46.95
UTG: $47.90
UTG+1: $50.50
UTG+2: $63.65
MP1: $75.10
Hero (MP2): $76.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Kc Kd
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, MP1 raises to $18.75, Hero calls $12.75
ALARM BELLS! He 4 bets me, out of position! WTF? Is anyone laying this down pre flop?

Flop: ($38.25) Qh Jh 7h (2 players)
MP1 bets $56.35 all in, Hero ????


Click to see results

Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
No heart, no real draw. If he has QQ, gg sir. I'm not going to commit the rest of my stack here.

Final Pot: $38.25
MP1 shows Ac Ah (a pair of Aces) - He actually showed his hand after he KNEW I had something good.
MP1 wins $36.35
(Rake: $1.90)

Cheap steals

I was sitting to the right of a few OVERLY tight players and I started thinking about general poker things...

When raising nits to steal blinds, why not min raise? I started off the session with these nits by raising 3x and they were folding. I caught on quick, though, that in the off chance that they would call, I'd lose at least an extra bet. Therefore, I tried out a 2x raise (min raise). It's almost comical; I wound up stealing and stealing at a 60% clip on one table and a 50% clip on another...

I don't know how to determine my blind steal success rate with PT3; maybe someone can let me know that? However, I'd estimate my success rate to be somewhere north of 70%! Good times had by me (don't think by all :-) )

$5 bonus from me for signup with RakeTheRake & Full Tilt

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What would you do? #24

BTN is a 14/7, 75% cbet with 37% attempt to steal in a fairly extensive history (150+ hands).


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/371149
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $110.35
CO: $52.15
BTN: $50.00
SB: $60.55
BB: $65.70
UTG: $87.50
UTG+1: $9.00
MP1: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with 4h 4d
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) Qc 5c 9d (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4.25) Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50
Going to take a stab here. The club draw is there and the straight just got there. BTN has been very passive to this point, with position.

River: ($9.25) 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $15, Hero ????
This is like the WORST card in the deck for me. Any other card is easy to get away. I make my set. Do you call the $10 raise? I waffled quite a bit here. I'm getting ~3 to 1 to make the call here.


Click to see results

Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $10

Final Pot: $39.25
Hero shows 4h 4d (three of a kind, Fours)
BTN shows 9c Td (two pair, Tens and Nines)
Hero wins $37.30
(Rake: $1.95)

Betting on the end.

As a regular reader on this blog, you have probably seen a lot of "What would you do?" hands where the aggressor is betting into me on a checked river. The aggressor, more often than not, bets an unusually strong amount - inconsistent with the action of the hand prior. I understand what my opponent is trying to do: muscle me out of the pot. However, I think there is a sensible way of going about the river bluff. Granted, these hands are far different; I am not suggesting that you bet into represented strength against an opponent who is clearly sending a message that he has a hand and wants value by betting the streets. However, here are a few examples where small bets take down sizable pots, because the read I make is correct; my opponents are on draws.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/360112
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $29.00
SB: $8.00
BB: $38.00
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $34.25
MP1: $69.75
Hero (MP2): $85.45
CO: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with 7s 6s
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1, MP1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50
Standard suited connector call. Seeing a flop with a lot of players, while holding suited connectors is a good thing.

Flop: ($4.25) 4s 9s 5h (4 players)
BB bets $2, UTG+1 calls $2, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $7.50, BB calls $5.50, UTG+1 folds
BB's cbet is like 100%. This guy had been aggressive. In addition, I flop an open-ended straight flush draw. It is well-concealed by my raise. This hand is a monster draw.

Turn: ($21.25) Kc (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
I have half of the equity now. I want to control the size of the pot - but at this point, I am putting BB on a draw as well - likely the spade draw.


River: ($21.25) 4c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB folds
The spade draw doesn't get there - the BB has all but shut down, and I make a small bet, which I don't think he'll call because he didn't hit his overs or spades. For $5.00, I win the $21.25 pot.

Final Pot: $21.25
Hero wins $20.20
(Rake: $1.05)


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/360113
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $13.00
UTG+1: $11.40
MP1: $21.60
MP2: $18.60
CO: $71.55
BTN: $58.50
Hero (SB): $55.90
BB: $11.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 3s Ac
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks
Ace connector limp from SB.

Flop: ($1.50) Js 8s 5s (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: ($1.50) Qc (3 players)
Hero bets $1, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $1
I'm going to take a stab at this with the innocuous Queen of clubs. If I get callers, I'm going to assume they're looking for an additional spade. However, given the prior action, none of the players have tried to build a pot, nor tried to stab at it. In fact, A high may even be the best hand to this point.

River: ($3.50) 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, UTG+1 folds
Given the lack of aggression, a non-spade river card, and a non-overcard to the Q, I'm going to make a small "value" bet on the river, which I expect the UTG+1 to fold. It works, and for $1.25, I win $3.50.

Final Pot: $3.50
Hero wins $3.35
(Rake: $0.15)

What would you do? #23

Stats on this donkey are 43/16. Aggression factor is 1.2, c-bet is 60% and he has a 36% attempt to steal... all in 100 hands. Clearly, he's an aggro player. UTG+1 had been overlimping a lot as well, seeing a TON of flops.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/360104
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $13.00
SB: $12.80
BB: $10.75
Hero (UTG): $114.00
UTG+1: $54.20
MP: $42.25
CO: $53.60

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Kh Ks
Hero raises to $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds
Hate the out of position spot. but KK is the 2nd best hand...gotta get value!

Flop: ($6.00) Jh 2s 5s (3 players)
Hero bets $3.25, UTG+1 calls $3.25, BTN calls $3.25
Pretty decent flop; 2 spades is cause for concern.

Turn: ($15.75) 8h (3 players)
Hero bets $12, UTG+1 calls $12, BTN folds
Bricked turn. I want to define his hand very clearly. I think he has to fold the near pot bet if he is on a draw. I also think that this type of player would have raised by this point if he has [gulp] AsJs, AJo, or a set. He's either on a spade draw, or has some semblance of hand... Jx?

River: ($39.75) As (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $20, Hero calls $20
Spades AND Ace get there... What are you doing in this spot? UTG+1 has $37.20 behind and bets half pot / half his remaining stack. Was he calling with A5, A2? I don't think he'd have called that turn bet with those types of hands. He certainly wasn't drawing to the nut flush draw, based on the As river card. What would you do?



Click to see results

Final Pot: $79.75
Hero shows Kh Ks (a pair of Kings)
UTG+1 shows Kd Jd (a pair of Jacks)
Hero wins $76.75
(Rake: $3.00)
My thought is that the Ace represents a good scare card as well as the spade scare. I feel like a half pot bet here is a weakish bet... more like a stab. It could be construed as a value bet from a 18/10 type player, but I think against an aggressive player, he realizes that I have a strong hand by this point and is trying to represent a better rivered hand. I think I have a 50/50 shot to call this and win, and he offers $20 to call $60; 3:1.

Biggest $ pot won #3

Not much here; I nearly tripled through 2 donkeys at my table... we're talking VPIP > 35...

Like I said, I ran well last night!

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/367845
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $19.65
Hero (BB): $71.00
UTG: $10.70
UTG+1: $52.30
UTG+2: $28.75
MP1: $64.15
MP2: $34.75
CO: $101.50
BTN: $10.30

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Ah Ac
5 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.50, CO calls $7, BTN calls $4.50

Flop: ($22.75) 6s 6c 4d (3 players)
Hero bets $7.50, CO calls $7.50, BTN calls $2.80 all in

Turn: ($40.55) Kh (3 players - 1 is all in)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $20, Hero raises to $30, CO raises to $40, Hero raises to $56 all in, CO calls $16

River: ($152.55) 4s (3 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $152.55
Hero shows Ah Ac (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
CO shows As Ks (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
BTN shows 9c 9s (two pair, Nines and Sixes)
Hero wins $119.95
Hero wins $29.60
(Rake: $3.00)

Flopped quads (again)

Like I said, I ran well - didn't get paid on this hand, but still ran very well last night...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/367844
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $54.50
SB: $11.30
BB: $12.65
UTG: $23.95
UTG+1: $65.80
MP1: $10.55
MP2: $21.15
CO: $33.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Kc Kh
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) Ks Kd 6s (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.25) 8d (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG folds

Final Pot: $5.25
Hero wins $5.00
(Rake: $0.25)

Biggest session to date 2009-11-13

Tonight i played 1,815 hands in 4.28 hours... I turned in a session of $321.05 - the largest single session profit to date. That translates to a sick 17.69 PTBB/100! This brings my November back into good shape. I'm not going to lie; I ran extremely well, being dealt Aces 16 times, making up the largest portion of my 122 pocket pairs on the night (a little above the mean @ 6.7% pocket pair hands). I flopped sets at a below average rate, 8.2%, but my hands held up for the most part - I ran $108.41 above EV in all in situations.

Equity in a pot / thoughts on expected value

Due to October's results, I have really begun to think about winning poker pots in a different light. I had a conversation with a friend the other day- one who has continually experienced all- around bad luck at live poker. He and I were talking about how when you get AA vs. KK all in pre-flop, it just sucks when inevitably, the King hits the flop and you're drawing thin and lose the pot. I've had similar circumstances happen to me *A LOT* in October- where my actual return for pots that I was all in, was far lower than expected value. (A quick tutorial on expected value: EV is the long term value of the hand you hold; i.e. if you have 80% equity in a pot, then you can expect to win $80 for every $100 pot if you ran the exact same cards against each other an infinite number of times.) I can certainly commiserate with him; for a player seeing limited hands like that of live poker, and a limited bankroll, these results can be devastating. Fortunately for me, I do not have said limited bankroll; I follow [in my opinion] proper bankroll strategy.

In theory, unless you are drawing completely dead, everyone has equity in a pot. In other words, if I get it all in with AA vs. 65 on a 6 9 T board, the villain has about 20% equity (5 outs to the two pair / trips) + maybe 2% to tie with running straight cards. Therefore, the way I have begun thinking about winning or losing pots is how much of that pot was theoretically mine; i.e. if at the point of all in, the pot was worth $100, $78 of that money is mine and $20 is the villain's. My friend was quick to point out that "theoretical wins don't pay the bills," which is true, but I do believe that over an infinite hands (which is the amount of hands I intend to play), the statistical norms will be met, and the theoretical wins will become real $78 wins.

I guess what I'm touching upon is Karma - basically what goes around, comes around. When I get a bad beat, or a statistically improbably beat, the "old me" used to tilt like crazy - becoming hyper aggressive for every hand no matter my holdings. I essentially took my frustrations out on my bankroll - making a theoretical $78 / real $100 (in the example above) loss into a MUCH bigger loss because now I'm misplaying hands. However, if the month of October taught me one thing, it is that I no longer get upset. I simply email the hand out to some friends who probably care at an arm's length because they, too, can sympathize but have their own problems with the same type of suckouts. Now, though, I realize that there will be a whipsaw in the end, and I too, when needed, will catch a 2 outter to save my stack at the table - OR, perhaps, I will win 2 more coin flips than I rightfully should (either end of AK vs. pocket pairs). And you know what? To answer my friends comment: I'm not playing poker to "pay the bills," - neither is he. It's not fun to catch a bad beat; it's not fun to be card dead the whole night except for the only time you look down and see a pair of red Aces... but you'll get it back in the end.

In closing, I can take all the bad beats that poker and / or bad Karma manages to dole out. I know that in the end, with every theoretical dollar owed to me, Karma will catch me up to even and [hopefully] then some.

Good play by a donk or am I a donk?

35/9 @ 46 hands... Cbets 100%. This is a typical limping donkey. I think he fell into this hand, but are you making this play?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/357124
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $12.85
Hero (BTN): $66.15
SB: $61.00
BB: $5.90
UTG: $26.90
UTG+1: $14.15
MP: $48.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 7d 8d
2 folds, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, MP calls $1.75
Standard BTN raise.

Flop: ($5.25) Ad Kd 8h (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $2.75, MP calls $2.75
Bottom pair + flush draw. I'm willing to get it all in here. I figure 14 clean outs for 50% equity.

Turn: ($10.75) 7c (2 players) - Hit 2 pair
MP checks, Hero bets $8, MP raises to $22, Hero raises to $61.15 all in, MP calls $21.15 all in
With his raise, I'm putting him on the same diamond draw, or AT, AJ. I have $21.15 effectively behind + a turned 2 pair, so this is for stacks. Do you put him on AA for the set?

Even still, I'm not drawing dead - 18% equity here.

River: ($97.05) 2c (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $97.05
Hero shows 7d 8d (two pair, Eights and Sevens)
MP shows Ac Ah (three of a kind, Aces)
MP wins $94.05
(Rake: $3.00)

Is this bad play by me, or just a cooler?

Not running good, but flopped quads helps...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/365324
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $33.90
Hero (UTG): $75.15
MP: $52.35
CO: $10.05
BTN: $83.75
SB: $8.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Kc Kh
Hero raises to $1.75, 4 folds, BB raises to $4, Hero raises to $8.75, BB calls $4.75
BB is somewhat of an aggrodonk. I am definitely 4 betting here and hoping for an over-shove. Instead, he opts to call.

Flop: ($17.75) Kd Ks 3c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Probably a terrible flop in BB's eyes. I'm not sure how he thinks, but I have to imagine, given my aggression PF, that he puts me on a very limited range which includes AK. I have no choice but to check behind for fear that he thinks I hit something.

Turn: ($17.75) 8h (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero calls $5
The turn is even worse; I was hoping the turn would open up a draw where his pocket pair or AQ has to bet to "protect." Alas, he puts out a feeler, so I opt to call in position. He has $20.15 behind at this point.

River: ($27.75) Ts (2 players)
BB bets $8.50, Hero raises to $23, BB calls $11.65 all in
Yuck. He bets small in comparison to the pot, and about half his remaining stack. He leaves me with one bet, but I try to make it as "small" as possible. I am *SURE* he is folding here. But I get surprised with a delayed call on the end.

Final Pot: $68.05
BB mucks 9h 9s - That's a pretty loose river call. I expected him to *AT LEAST* show up with a set, TT+, etc. Let's recap: He called a 4 bet out of position, committing about 1/3 of his stack pre-flop. He got the other 2/3 in on the turn and river, but thought he was going to be good? I must have missed something; does it say "DONKEY" on my screen notes?
Hero shows Kc Kh (four of a kind, Kings)
Hero wins $65.05
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #22

Villain is a 17 / 5 @ 41 hands w/ Infinite aggressive factor.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/355559
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $10.00
UTG: $11.00
UTG+1: $47.75
UTG+2: $10.00
Hero (MP1): $128.95
MP2: $50.75
CO: $11.00
BTN: $72.55
SB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Ts Td
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) 9h 2s 5c (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.75, UTG+1 raises to $5.50, Hero calls $2.75

Turn: ($16.25) 3c (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $16.25, Hero ???
Assume a call here means you're playing for stacks. Do you fold here? Do you fold the flop? Raise?


Click to see results

Hero calls $16.25

River: ($48.75) Ad (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $23.75 all in, Hero calls $23.75

Final Pot: $96.25
UTG+1 shows 9s 9d (three of a kind, Nines)
Hero mucks Ts Td
UTG+1 wins $93.25
(Rake: $3.00)

Statistical anomalies

I'm trying to keep in tune with the 4 part set of postings on pre- and post- game preparation by going through my overall known starting hands, something I do 1-2 times / month. Here are some findings that I thought I'd share...

While reviewing known starting hand logs for 50NL / 50PL, I found that I am a HUGE winner with AA and KK - each is worth about 4.3 BB / hand. QQ is worth about 2.18 BB / hand.

What is weird is that AKo is my 7th winning-est hand showing a worth of .65 BB / hand, yet AKs is 2nd losing-est hand, worth about -0.68 BB / hand... What that says to me is I'm overplaying my AKs.

Also interesting to me is that TT is a pretty big loser for me, 8th worst on the list, at -0.31 BB / hand. I can more or less chalk that anomaly up to getting stacked at my only 100NL venture for a full 100BBs...

The only other pocket pair on the loser list is 33, with a -0.15 loss rate, but in net dollar amount, hardly worth the mention at a total loss of $12.53.

Surprising to me, though, is that I have a bunch of big losers with suited connectors. T9s, 87s, JTs, QTs, make up the major portion of my net $$$ lost. (I can include AKs in that list as well.) I need to look into how I'm misplaying suited connectors - yet two of my top fifteen net money makers are 76s, 42s and 86s, which nearly cancel out the above losses... (which means I will continue to play suited connectors aggressively).

Looking at overall session results, my sessions won % is less than 50%, yet I am a net positive winning player... Kinda weird, but I think that the issue is when I win a session, I win a "large" session, whereas when I lose a session, the loss may be less than a buy in... losses are contained by stop losses, whereas wins are unfettered.

Finally, expanding my field to include 25NL / 25PL, I was hunting around and looking at my VPIP / PFR numbers and noticed that I am a strong winner in 25PL, and a break-even player in 25NL:

Limit	Hands	Hands Won	Sessions	Sessions Won	Amount Won	BB/100
$0.25 NL	45,942	7,673 (16.70%)	430	194 (45.12%)	$12.67	0.06
$0.25 PL	10,142	1,629 (16.06%)	104	62 (59.62%)	$807.49	15.92

Kinda weird...