Wednesday, December 23, 2009

What would you do? #41 - Rivered baby flush vs. pot lead

The facts: VPIP 73/ PFR 13/ @ 16 hands. No particular direct reads against this player. What are you doing with the pot-committing river lead?

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG: $19.60
UTG+1: $17.35
UTG+2: $5.23
MP1: $5.00
MP2: $12.19
Hero (CO): $38.68
BTN: $31.04
SB: $44.02
BB: $13.21

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 5s 3s
UTG raises to $0.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25
I'm getting to see a flop, with 80BB effective stacks, for the price of 2BBs with suited connectors. Not the best SCs, but they'll do. Particularly, I'd bet a 5 or 3 paired would be good. I'm not putting this player on a great / strong hand.

Flop: ($2.00) 2s Js Th (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, SB calls $0.25, BB folds
So I hit the spade draw + backdoor flush draw. I'll definitely float, in position, with that kind of draw.

Turn: ($2.75) 8c (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, SB calls $2.25
Now UTG gets serious, but he still has around $15 behind. I have the implied odds to make a call in this spot. PLUS, I have the SB coming along with me, which gives me extra odds.

River: ($9.50) 6s (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $9.50, Hero ???

Do you fold here? Do you push here? What about SB's hand? Call? Why?

Hero calls $9.50, SB folds
Clearly, the lead for pot surprised me. I wasn't sure what to make of it. I certainly missed value here; we were deep stacked and I only took about 1/4 of his total stack. I quickly ruled out folding. The problem I have with raising is this: I can really only min raise without committing my stack. The bet he makes is so large that there is no room for anything other raise than essentially a shove. Am I willing to put my stack on the line for a bottom flush? Anyone disagree with the logic?

Final Pot: $28.50
UTG shows Qd 9d (a straight, Queen high)
Hero shows 5s 3s (a flush, Jack high)
Hero wins $27.08
(Rake: $1.42)

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