Friday, December 11, 2009

What would you do? #36 - Middle pair facing large river lead

21/8/inf AF /0% cbet / 18% attempt to steal

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $23.30
MP1: $53.47
MP2: $6.41
CO: $150.16
Hero (BTN): $26.45
SB: $13.50
BB: $32.67
UTG: $25.93

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 8d 9d
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.35, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.10, UTG+1 calls $1.10

Flop: ($4.40) Jd 5d 5c (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.50, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $7.50, Hero calls $5
This particular check / raise is suspicious. For a 21/8, AJ is certainly within the realm... But this feels more like a diamond draw or a naked bluff. I'm certain he's not showing up with a 5 here, but why is he check raising so strong? Limped overpair?

Turn: ($19.40) 8h (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
I add to my outs with the paired 8.

River: ($19.40) 6s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12, Hero ???
Am I the only one where this line is not making sense? What are you doing here?

Click to see results

Hero calls $12 -He checks through the turn, but then takes a HUGE stab at the river. This is an utterly confusing hand and confusing play. I think he has certainly polarized himself to monster / air. However, I have to feel that given the c/r 'ed flop, he's making me pay for a draw on the turn.

Final Pot: $43.40
UTG+1 shows Ad Tc (a pair of Fives)
Hero shows 8d 9d (two pair, Eights and Fives)
Hero wins $41.23
(Rake: $2.17)


  1. I don't like the call on the river and I think you're probably working backwards to some extent having seen the result when providing your reasoning. But I really don't like the raise before the flop. I used to always raise with sooted connectors preflop, but over time I have standardized to where nowadays I almost always open-raise with them but I very seldom raise when I'm not first into the pot. I think you kill your odds in most cases with a raise there, and this is just the type of hand that you want 5 people to see the flop with you, as opposed to AA or KK or something which you would really prefer to take heads-up to the flop.

  2. Hoy- I didn't back into the reasoning after the fact. The line simply did not make sense. It didn't make sense that he's check /raising the flop in the first place. Am I to believe that he limped JJ? And if he did, is he c/r-ing the flop with a made hand? Am I to believe he has 65s or A5s and he's c/r-ing? I'd expect a lead out with that kind of hand (with an inf aggression factor). So the c/r doesn't make a heckuvalotta sense here. PARTICULARLY, since he checks through the turn.

    Now, positionally, I don't know whether this guy is running HEM, which shows positional aggression, but I know that I'm a VPIP 50 from the BTN, and PFR most of my range... Perhaps he was trying to muscle me off of the hand by thinking that the flop had missed me? But I'd expect a 3 bet PF in this type of spot, instead of a c/r flop.

    BTW, if he leads the turn, I'm pretty certain that I'm folding there. At best, I'm probably drawing to any 8 and any diamond, and I'm not getting good enough odds to make that call. This was a weird hand, no doubt.


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