Tuesday, December 1, 2009

What would you do? #34 - Overpair facing turn raise

MP is an 18/9 / aggression factor: 5.0 / 0% 3bet (meaningless) @ 68 hands

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/401205
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $25.35
BTN: $5.00
SB: $5.00
Hero (BB): $27.75
UTG: $5.00
UTG+1: $11.95
MP: $25.35

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Js Jh
2 folds, MP calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, MP calls $1

Flop: ($2.60) 7h 3h Th (2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, MP calls $1.75

Turn: ($6.10) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, MP raises to $7.50, Hero???

Click to see results

Hero folds -I think I misplayed this hand. If he has a set, then he just made a boat. I was convinced of a fold because I just didn't see him with this type of aggression on the turn. I think I was likely ahead, and he was betting a heart draw + 2 overs. In addition, my thought was that I'm not really deep into this hand, and MP flatted the flop bet.

I think my bet was weak here, 1/3 pot. However, my intent is to avoid building a large pot in this spot, with an overpair + paired board. Would an 18/9 from MP flat A7? What about 33, 77, TT? I think I folded this hand without thinking about what realistic hands beat me... I don't want to get it all in on the river (which is where it's heading) with an unimproved overpair.

Final Pot: $10.60
MP wins $10.10
(Rake: $0.50)

1 comment:

  1. I think you can fold here. Villain's range for calling and then raising the turn is pretty strong, and you don't want to make the mistake of thinking that you have your J-high flush-draw to fall back on, since that draw could be dominated. I don't see a T-x making this raise, so you have to give some credit. It would be a pretty advanced float-then-bluff line to take here with air or something like the Ah/Kh.

    I don't generally like leading the turn here. If you like your hand and think villain will bluff the turn a lot, just check-call and re-evaluate the river.


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