Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Been awhile... here's an interesting hand / thought on equity

I was out on vacation, so it's been awhile since I last posted. Sorry about that. I've been running better lately, but I'm starting to learn how to maximize my equity in the hand, as you will see below.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

BTN: $26.75
SB: $74.65
BB: $6.45
Hero (UTG): $50.51
UTG+1: $19.82
MP: $27.71
CO: $13.42

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 6h 5h
Hero calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, 3 folds, SB raises to $2.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2.25
I will normally fold this type of hand, 3 bet, squeezed between the UTG+1 LAG & the SB 21/15. However, looking at the stack sizes, SB & I are playing 200BB effective stacks. My sole consideration for calling this hand was exactly that: stack sizes. If I hit with this hand, I am potentially getting paid handsomely. In addition, SB has 3 bet around 1 time in a few hundred hands. Clearly, he has a premium hand - be it JJ+ or AKs.

Flop: ($8.50) 5c 6d 8s (3 players)
SB bets $5, Hero calls $5, UTG+1 folds
This is a decent player... he's not going for the straight with a 3bet PF, and there is no flush draw on the board; he has QQ+. At this point in the hand, I have around a 70% edge. I don't think he's slowing down, though.

Now, I'm not sure what overpair he has here: he could have QQ, KK, or AA - and then again, an 8 could show up to counterfeit my bottom two. Given the way I've been running lately, I've come to expect the 8 to pair on the turn... therefore,
instead of getting it all in here, I'd prefer to wait until the turn - to make sure I dodged his outs and increased my equity.

Turn: ($18.50) Th (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB requests TIME, SB raises to $66.90 all in, Hero calls $27.76 all in
It's a safe turn. I don't think he's 3 betting PF with TT, therefore I can make the call for stacks with 80+% equity.

River: ($104.02) 7c (2 players - 2 are all in)
And I finally fade the set and paired board!

Final Pot: $104.02
SB shows Kc Ks (a pair of Kings)
Hero shows 6h 5h (two pair, Sixes and Fives)
Hero wins $101.02
(Rake: $3.00)

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