Tuesday, April 13, 2010

What would you do? #83 - Facing flop committing bet when you have ~50% in PF

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $31.80
UTG: $103.50
UTG+1: $183.40
UTG+2: $57.20
MP1: $204.50
MP2: $164.85
Hero (CO): $128.50
BTN: $82.30
SB: $48.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Qh Qc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $13,
Standard 3bet.
2 folds, BB raises to $31.80 all in, UTG+1 calls $28.30,
I have 13BB already committed. I'm not happy about UTG+1's raise -> flat. I put him on AK. What would you do? How much would you raise if you opt to raise? Is folding an option?

Click to see results

Hero raises to $50.60, UTG+1 calls $18.80
My opinion? I think I raised too light here. I likely should have raised to around $65-75. The logic I used at the time, and perhaps I'm wrong in retrospect: If I bet $65-75, I may as well go all in, which is something I really want to avoid. I don't want to be potentially flipping for my stack.

Flop: ($133.50) 3c Kd 2d (3 players - 1 is all in)
UTG+1 bets $50, Hero folds
Easy fold?

Turn: ($133.50) As (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($133.50) 4c (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $133.50
BB shows Jd Qd (Ace King high) - Shoving QJs... good play!
UTG+1 shows Ks Qs (a pair of Kings) - WTF? KQs? Calling a 4bet OOP? LOL Too bad BB didn't suck out on you and FT rewarded you for your donkey play!
UTG+1 wins $37.60
UTG+1 wins $92.90
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. (BTW, I read the result already, but my initial thought was push or fold as I describe below)

    Yeah, I'd say you definitely raised too light.

    I feel like your action is very much a push or a fold situation. You are getting about 4:1 on the call, so I think you can call profitably planning to fold to a bet if you don't hit a set. You could also carefully play the flop with the knowledge that the BB might have AA or KK so you can't win the main pot even if you get the other guy out.

    I don't see why a shove isn't such a bad thing. It'd be a pot sized bet and his flat call makes it unlikely he has you beat (unless UTG+1 is savvy enough to flat call AA there). If you shove, you'll likely fold out UTG+1, and go against the BB with $30 of dead money in the pot. If he calls with AK, that's not a problem either, although I know you don't want to flip, it would still be profitable since BB could have some of his outs.

    I think there's two critical pieces of information to figure this one out, and I'm not exactly sure the answer to them: 1) How often is BB going to be shoving with less than AA or KK? and 2) How often will UTG+1 flat call with AA or KK?

    Thoughts? I'm not sure how often Rush poker players would do the above two things.

  2. Sean - you hit on the exact two items going through my head at the time. I don't mind getting it in with BB's ~quarter stack. Usually, a non-full buy in says "weak player" and QQ is going to be good enough times to make a profitable call of that shove. However, the UTG+1 raises -> flats -> flats again from out of position. The issue was that I was somewhat deep stacked, and to commit 128BBs on a potential flip is generally a bad situation that I want to avoid. This whole hand just plain sucked.

  3. OK haven't looked at results or comments yet.

    A lot is going to depend on your perception of the players and their perception of you. I think it would be cool if you could include vpip/pfr/af and your impressions of other players in the hand. (Is this Rush? Do you run into the same people enough that stats are meaningful?)

    Against competent players, I'm folding a lot. You could call since you close the action and hope to hit a set. There's a lot of flops I'd be folding here so I'd probably fold pre.

    Unless UTG+1 and BB are complete droolers one of them has KK+.

    Is UTG+1 a solid player? If so his EP opening range is narrow. If BB is also solid, he should also put you on a tight range after you 3-bet against UTG+1.

    4-betting from the blinds with anything less than KK is just boneheaded. Even with his short stack.

    What do they think of you? If you've been running them over with aggression, they might be sick of you and doing this light so you might want to shove here because their ranges are wider.

    When UTG+1 flats I think he has Aces a lot of the time.

    OK, time to see what happened.

    Wow.. pretty bad... Guess they are droolers.

    5-bet was way too weak though. UTG+1 called an extra 28.30, he's not going to fold for another 18.80. If you're not calling or folding I think you have to shove in this spot. A shove is just slightly more than a pot sized raise. (I think)

    If he's putting that much money in pre with KQs though, he'll probably call your shove so things could have been worse.

    Really surprised neither of them had at least a pair or AK.

  4. I'll agree that the hand sucked.

    When you say 'flip', do you mean vs AK, or you mean he could have AA, KK?

    If you are discounting the fact that he has AA, KK (or the chance is quite unlikely, i.e. < 10%), I don't think you should be timid at all. If you push and he folds, then there's $30 extra in the pot that you have at least 50% equity on. If he calls, well, sure, you've got a 50-50 proposition (he might call with JJ... although it is unlikely). But you could have a bigger edge since it is quite possible that the other player has some of his outs.

    My point is, the push generates dead money if he folds, so if you think if he calls you'll be 50-50, you should be pushing every time. If you think you'll be 40-60 if he calls, then yeah, the call is probably prudent and then you just try to extract money with a set or if he seems weak on a safe flop.

    Maybe this is why people don't like QQ that much in cash games.

  5. When you say 'flip', do you mean vs AK, or you mean he could have AA, KK?

    Yeah - I mean AK. And I realized, with UTG+1's re-flat of my final PF raise, that he had, *at best*, AK.

    It's funny - like we're talking about on your blog, Micro, this is one case where I hate the short stackers. The BB set me up with an awkward shove, where we got to 30BBs and if I shove here, I'm really not sure where I am in the hand. I think UTG+1 shoves AA, KK here, given that I have more-or-less committed myself with ~half my stack in the middle.

    I'll tell you - the most frustrating thing of this is that I had 3 outs to avoid in order to take this pot down. It really really sucks that a King flops. I was something like a 60-70% favorite there.

    This hand is the start of my run bad; the reason I moved back down from 100nl. It seems that I go through stretches where this kind of stuff will happen to me. On the other hand, I'll upswing and just crush the opposition because my hands hold up. Fortunately, overall, the upswings > downswings :-).


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