Friday, April 30, 2010

What would you do? #96 - Facing 2/3 pot sized river bet on scary low board

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $53.30
BB: $17.25
UTG: $263.15
UTG+1: $118.40 - 32/16 / 67% steal / 7.7% 3bet / 4.0 aggression factor (which I think is relevant)
UTG+2: $18.75
MP1: $30.65
MP2: $50.00
CO: $60.85 - 16/13 / 23% steal / 13.3% 3bet / 4.7 aggression factor
BTN: $49.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 8s 8d
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3
Not a normal raise; I am out of position with a middle pairHowever, given the LAG-giness of UTG+1, I want to at least isolate so I don't have to face 4 players with a marginal pair post flop.  Really, though, I'm looking to cbet and fade a bad turn with a non-Ace, non-King flop after I get the 2 callers.

Flop: ($11.50) 3s 5h 6d (3 players)
Hero bets $7, UTG+1 calls $7, CO calls $7
As decent of a flop as it's going to get for 88.  All undercards sets up a random straight draw.

Turn: ($32.50) 3h (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks
The 3 actually helps me, but I can't really bet into this pot without committing far too much money.  I'm not folding here, but the 3 eliminates a set of 3's, and without a flop raise, sets of 5's and 6's are out.  Plus, the paired board eliminates my need to worry about a flopped 2 pair 65 combo.  Weird that it checked through.

River: ($32.50) 4d (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $19, CO requests TIME, CO folds, Hero ??? 
Bad card hits, though.  87 is now in play...  UTG+1 fires the bet almost before I hit the check button; instantaneously...  what are you doing here?

Click to see results

Hero calls $19
To be honest, I think this was more of a "gut feel" call. I just couldn't buy the way the hand played out. I check through the turn with a paired board. I don't buy that he's pretty much making a river commitment bet given the way the hand plays out. Jordan talks about reads - and here is an example of an online read... He just sorta fired it out quickly, like he would have done that despite any river card.

Final Pot: $70.50
Hero shows 8s 8d (two pair, Eights and Threes)
UTG+1 shows 8h 9h (a pair of Threes)
Hero wins $67.50
(Rake: $3.00)

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