Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The history, the plan, and the goals


Welcome to my new blog. I am going to try to keep this blog isolated to hand histories, primarily. I will give my interpretation of the hand, and hope that you comment on them too. I have been tracking my bankroll since August 13, and will now keep track for you, my audience, live, on a semi-daily basis.

I started playing Bodog back on March 24, 2007. I initially funded the site with $100.00. I dropped all the way down to $0.00 on July 5, 2007. That depletion of funds happened to coincide with the first [and only that I've seen] deal to convert my "poker points" into cash. I was able to cash out $20.00, and started playing again. By August 12, I was back down to $5.00, and on the ropes. I took a long break from playing, and started reading a TON of books, including Doyle Brunson's Super System and Super System 2 and Sklanky's Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players.

The first turnaround
After reading the books and the long break, I started to right the ship, vowing to be MORE aggressive on more selective hands and turned my game around. Playing the $0.05/$0.10 NLHE tables, I began to eke out a profit on a semi-regular basis. I would raise any two picture cards and play any two suited or connecting cards. I was an extremely loose player, and my bank roll would experience HUGE variation (variance), but overall net positive outcomes. Playing in such a manner, I rolled my stash all the way up to $182.89 on September 12, 2007. However, that was not to last and I dropped down to $68.81 on October 13, 2007.


The second turnaround
I could see the only direction this was heading - which was down; all the way down, again to $5.00. This time I figured I would not be able to pull out of the nosedive, because I had been consistently getting missed flops and unlucky cards, mixed with a healthy portion of bad beats. I knew I was not playing optimally, and sat down to re-read a few more books, including Phil Helmuth's Play Poker Like the Pros. I realized that I am playing FAR too many hands, and should be even more selective with the hands I raise - even the hands I play. I started adopting the disciplined way of playing / raising the top 2% of hands, and limping on the semi-premium hands (AQ, AJ, KQ, etc.). My bank roll immediately showed the after-affects, enabling me to rise from the recent low of $68.81 to $101.13 on October 13, 2007, to $168.21 on October 16, 2007, to $202.10 on October 25, 2007, to as recently as last night, where my super tight play enabled me to win the biggest pot of my online career, a $57 doozie, completing my bank roll as of this writing at $266.27 on October 29, 2007.

During that run, I realized that there is a lot less variance in the higher stakes games, because the players are not playing like donkeys with as great frequency as the players at the $10.00 tables. Therefore, I moved up to the $0.10/$0.25 tables. The players are far more predictable, because the money is "more meaningful." I do not think the competition is more fierce; if anything, it is more tame, but people are a lot more careful with a $25.00 buy in as opposed to a $10.00 buy in. That suits me fine, because given my new way of playing, I enter the pots where I feel I am ahead, and I will not take pure gambles. That's not to say that I don't ever take gambles; in looking at the hand history, most of my questionable hands stem from pots I should have never been involved with in the first place.

The plan & goal
  • I would like to get to $1,000.00 by year end, December 31, 2007. I don't know how realistic that is, due to the fact that I am averaging $3.00 per session played. There are only 60 days left in the year. However, that is my goal and I am sticking to it.
  • Once I hit $1,000.00, I will likely withdraw $500.00 from my Bodog account, just to see how the withdrawal function works. I also feel like $1,000.00 in a foreign account is a bit much to trust with a company that has no U.S. jurisdiction over its head.
  • I track my win rate on a daily basis, enclosed is my trends, with $$$ / hour in pink, and $$$ cashout in blue (see above).
  • I will target a flops seen percentage of approximately 30%.
  • When I reach approximately $750.00 in my bank roll, I will begin playing the $0.25/$0.50 tables - in the same manner in which I am playing currently. I will not deviate from my game plan, as I am making good money right now from the $25.00 tables - I don't anticipate it will change at the $50.00 tables.
  • I will continue to capture interesting hands and post them for critique from my [1 or 2] member audience. I have quite a few hands in the back log that need to be posted, and I will do that as time permits.
Right now, my online poker future looks very bright. If I can stay away from tilt, and continue to play conservative aggressive, I will sweep up. Over the past 2 weeks, since I clamped down again, I have been averaging a $20.00 win rate per night. At that rate, I can achieve my $1,000.00 goal by year end (60 * $20.00 = $1,200.00 + existing $227.00 bank roll = $1,400.00).

Too cocky; lost $25

I played out of my element. I had my mind on other things: work, my kids, my wife, money. I should not have been playing, yet I did. I have no memorable hands from last night; I went out twice, chasing open ended straights. Those were my two buy-ins: $12.50 each. I suck!

Monday, October 29, 2007

Coin flip situation? Would you have called?

Hand Number

962047751

Start Date

2007-10-29 22:27:28

End Date

2007-10-29 22:28:44

Pot Size

$56.96

Rake

$1.50

Game Type

Hold'Em

Play Mode

Real

Table Name

War Emblem

Structure

NL

Table Stakes

Min Bet

Max Bet

Ante

Blinds

$0.25


$0.10

$0.25

Community Cards

Kc As 3s 4c 7d

Player Information

Screen
Name

Seat
Position

Cards
Dealt

Start/End
Amount

Total
Bet

Win/Loss
Amount

bauleke

1


$25.30/$24.50

$0.80

$-0.80

qwietman

2


$25.00/$25.00

$0.00

$0.00

wytfntm

3


$29.60/$29.60

$0.00

$0.00

kurokitty

4


$0.00/$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

Hussarian

5


$24.75/$24.75

$0.00

$0.00

MD_Joel

6

Ac Qc

$31.22/$59.40

$28.78

$28.18

billynapishere

7

Ah Jh

$28.78/$0.00

$28.78

$-28.78

fatbankroll

8


$10.25/$10.25

$0.00

$0.00

DonnyBaseball12

9


$4.50/$4.40

$0.10

$-0.10

Hand Actions

Player

Action

Action Data

Timestamp

fatbankroll

Set dealer/Bring in spot

8

22:27:28

DonnyBaseball12

Ante/Small blind

$ 0.10

22:27:28

bauleke

Big blind/Bring in

$ 0.25

22:27:28

bauleke

Card dealt to a spot


22:27:28

wytfntm

Card dealt to a spot


22:27:28

Hussarian

Card dealt to a spot


22:27:28

MD_Joel

Card dealt to a spot

Ac Qc

22:27:28

billynapishere

Card dealt to a spot

Ah Jh

22:27:28

fatbankroll

Card dealt to a spot


22:27:28

DonnyBaseball12

Card dealt to a spot


22:27:28

wytfntm

Fold

$ 0.00

22:27:31

kurokitty

Stand up

4

22:27:33

kurokitty

Stand up

true

22:27:33

Hussarian

Fold

$ 0.00

22:27:37

MD_Joel

Call

$ 0.25

22:27:40

billynapishere

Raise

$ 0.80

22:27:55

fatbankroll

Fold

$ 0.00

22:27:55

DonnyBaseball12

Fold

$ 0.10

22:27:57

bauleke

Call

$ 0.55

22:28:00

MD_Joel

Raise

$ 2.00

22:28:06

billynapishere

Call

$ 1.45

22:28:15

bauleke

Fold

$ 0.80

22:28:16


Betting round completed

Last active pot = $5.40

22:28:16


Card dealt to table

Kc As 3s

22:28:16

MD_Joel

Bet

$ 3.00

22:28:20

billynapishere

Raise

$ 6.00

22:28:27

MD_Joel

Call

$ 3.00

22:28:28


Betting round completed

Last active pot = $17.40

22:28:28


Card dealt to table

4c

22:28:28

MD_Joel

Check


22:28:31

billynapishere

All-in

$ 20.53

22:28:39

MD_Joel

Call

$ 20.53

22:28:40


Betting round completed

Last active pot = $0.00
Side pot 7 = $58.46

22:28:42


Card dealt to table

7d

22:28:42


Rake amount

$ 1.50

22:28:44


Betting round completed

Last active pot = $0.00
Side pot 7 = $56.96

22:28:44

MD_Joel

Showdown

Show card: Pair
As Ac Kc Qc 7d

22:28:44

billynapishere

Showdown

Show card: Pair
As Ah Kc Jh 7d

22:28:44

MD_Joel

Hand result

$ 56.96

22:28:44


I thought about it for a bit. Here was my thought at the time (and I've been pondering it ever since...):

I probably never should have been re-raising this pot; I’m out of position and the player is somewhat unknown. However, let the chips fall where they may. I re-raised him pre, and he called. Right then, I knew he didn't have AA, and LIKELY did not have KK. I put him on AK at the time, but with an 80 cent first raise, and a call to my re raise, I thought AQ, KQs, AJs, etc. (the standard going raise was at least $1.00; sometimes $2.00). Still, I wanted to play it safe and see what happens, because AQs is not the utmost premium hand, and I’m out of position. Flop comes AK rag. I lead out, he didn't back down, but he didn't put all in there; that told me he wasn't sure he was ahead, so he min raises me. Therefore, I’m going to play it safe myself and flat call his re-raise. All of a sudden, with a "inconsequential" 4 of clubs, which gives 2 possible flush draws (and me in particular a flush draw), he insta-all-ins my check. My check was because I wanted to see if he had AK and how and if he bets it.

This turn of events presented me with a few thoughts and 2 [obviously] tough decisions. He could be drawing on spades, which gives him air at this point and a partial bluff bet. Less likely, but still possible, he could be drawing clubs, though, again, I have the AQ, so his best card could be a J club – perhaps putting him on a JTs. He could have Ace rag, and on the turn hit his 4 (rag), which was extremely unlikely due to his pre flop raise, called pre flop re-raise, and re-raised flop. He could have a set of 4’s, which would be next to impossible (he would have shut it down and ESPECIALLY not re-raised the flop). That said, I left his range on AA (unlikely since I held an A), KK (perhaps, but he would have been more aggressive pre flop and flop), AK (again, unlikely because he would have been more aggressive flop) or A and “good” kicker.

At that point, I flipped a coin, because I had one drawing card (club) and it was possible that he had just an A kicker, at which point I’m favored / tie. Why would he raise all in on the turn if he had AK? He would have re raised on the flop with all in if he had AK. I most certainly would have folded there, because I didn’t have a ton of money committed to the pot and my hand probably wouldn’t get any better. He set up the whole hand by managing the pot on the flop (not letting it get too too huge). All of a sudden, all in though? He’s either on a draw, which I can go to the matt with him for, or he doesn't have anything. No two pair, no set, just a pair of Aces. In which case, I have him beat crushed.

Certainly, it was gutsy of him to re raise on the flop in retrospect, but a min raise was not going to get me out if he was afraid of a drawing flush, especially after I led out for $3.00. He showed weakness, followed up by overplaying the turn.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Another questionable play; did I play this correctly?

Hand Number

959400655

Start Date

2007-10-27 23:54:09

End Date

2007-10-27 23:55:06

Pot Size

$6.45

Rake

$0.30

Game Type

Hold'Em

Play Mode

Real

Table Name

Red Deer

Structure

NL

Table Stakes

Min Bet

Max Bet

Ante

Blinds

$0.25

$0.10

$0.25

Community Cards

Qh Js Kh 10s

Player Information

Screen
Name

Seat
Position

Cards
Dealt

Start/End
Amount

Total
Bet

Win/Loss
Amount

KaliKarli

1

$31.50/$31.50

$0.00

$0.00

newgrassman

2

$24.50/$21.30

$3.20

$-3.20

capnharry

3

$25.00/$25.00

$0.00

$0.00

Intenzeplay

4

$30.85/$30.85

$0.00

$0.00

jciv

5

$25.15/$25.05

$0.10

$-0.10

MD_Joel

6

3c Ah

$20.52/$23.77

$3.20

$3.25

wingnutrpb

7

$24.40/$24.15

$0.25

$-0.25

JOHNMANN

8

$4.00/$4.00

$0.00

$0.00

Hand Actions

Player

Action

Action Data

Timestamp

Intenzeplay

Set dealer/Bring in spot

4

23:54:09

jciv

Ante/Small blind

$ 0.10

23:54:09

MD_Joel

Big blind/Bring in

$ 0.25

23:54:09

capnharry

3

23:54:12

KaliKarli

Card dealt to a spot

23:54:12

newgrassman

Card dealt to a spot

23:54:12

Intenzeplay

Card dealt to a spot

23:54:12

jciv

Card dealt to a spot

23:54:12

MD_Joel

Card dealt to a spot

3c Ah

23:54:12

wingnutrpb

Card dealt to a spot

23:54:12

JOHNMANN

Card dealt to a spot

23:54:12

wingnutrpb

Call

$ 0.25

23:54:14

JOHNMANN

Fold

$ 0.00

23:54:16

KaliKarli

Fold

$ 0.00

23:54:17

newgrassman

Raise

$ 0.80

23:54:25

Intenzeplay

Fold

$ 0.00

23:54:29

jciv

Fold

$ 0.10

23:54:30

MD_Joel

Call

$ 0.55

23:54:31

wingnutrpb

Fold

$ 0.25

23:54:31

Betting round completed

Last active pot = $1.95

23:54:31

Card dealt to table

Qh Js Kh

23:54:31

MD_Joel

Check

23:54:34

newgrassman

Bet

$ 1.20

23:54:42

MD_Joel

Raise

$ 2.40

23:54:43

newgrassman

Call

$ 1.20

23:54:54

Betting round completed

Last active pot = $6.75

23:54:54

Card dealt to table

10s

23:54:54

MD_Joel

All-in

$ 17.32

23:54:59

newgrassman

Fold

$ 0.00

23:55:06

MD_Joel

Return uncalled portion of bet

$ 17.32

23:55:06

Rake amount

$ 0.30

23:55:06

Betting round completed

Last active pot = $6.45

23:55:06

MD_Joel

Showdown

Muck card

23:55:06

MD_Joel

Hand result

$ 6.45

23:55:06

I probably should have shut this down on the raise, being both out of position and holding a weak A. However, I rolled it for the extra $0.65, not a huge sum given my chip stack. At any rate, my thought was to see where he stands with a huge board like the flop had. If he had anything, he’d be crushing me at this point. His $1.20 bet out of my check said pure, unadulterated weakness. Two hearts on the board, and he’s GIVING odds to call? I immediately check raised him up a min bet, to represent a pair of something on the board – if not a straight. The ten hits, making my hand and I’m not going to let the bugger back door a flush on me with 2 draws on the board already. That’s why I all-inned him. My thought was if I bet a pot bet, that’s going to build the pot too much to walk away if one of the flushes hit. I’d have to call my straight to look him up. The all in essentially eliminates my decision and puts the pressure on him to gun for the flush or not. Obviously, he either had a little pocket pair, little pair, two sequenced suited cards, or air because he didn’t want to pursue it any further.

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