Tuesday, August 24, 2010

What would you do? #166 - Holding second pair (PP) to a fairly ordinary board facing a river shove

4th hand of the night...  I run into an aggro reg:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $17.50
Hero (UTG+1): $50.00
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $68.60
MP2: $54.00
CO: $101.75
BTN: $50.00 - 13/9 / 27% steal / 3.9% 3bet / 3.3 AF / 762 hands - Definitely a reg.
SB: $109.85
BB: $15.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with 8h 8d
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, CO calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($8.75) 6c 3s Js (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $4.50, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls $4.50, CO folds

Turn: ($17.75) 6d (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

River: ($32.75) 2h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $36.25 all in, Hero ???

Click to see results

I'm finding more & more that when I'm out of position, check / calling down is usually the best option.  Alot of the time, it induces them to continue to bluff at the pot.  This hand was surprising to me, though, because I would not expect a shove from a reg.  However, I just can't put him on a hand that shoves the river like this.  I haven't represented a ton of strength - if he wants value, I think he's betting a third to half pot bet.

Hero calls $36.25 all in

Final Pot: $105.25
Hero shows 8h 8d (two pair, Eights and Sixes)
BTN shows Kd Td (a pair of Sixes)
Hero wins $102.25
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. Nice hand. I think I probably fold the flop though having missed my set draw. Possibly too weak.. but how profitable are 8's going to be long term? I dunno.

  2. This is not an auto call / auto fold situation, so I'm not treating 88 as a long term hand; I'm thinking about it in the sole perspective of this hand.

    As I call the flop, I think about what hands he could have that have me beat: AJ, KJ is the obvious one. Given that he is a 4% 3bettor, and in position, I don't think he's shy about raising QQ+ if not TT+... He also could have 66 or 33. The turn, however, is a *GREAT* card, reducing his set possibilities to essentially 3's. Yet he continues to barrel. By this point, I realize that my hand has a TON of showdown value, and he's probably on a flush draw + 2 overs. I think I have to fold if a spade comes on the river, or an Ace or King.

    Finally, I'm pretty certain he's checking through the river with a TP-type hand. His story is somewhat inconsistent. He ~half pot bets the whole way and then shoves the river? Unless he hit a set of deuces, then the betting pattern does not make sense. Needless to say, though, his river shove definitely surprised me.

    At any point in the hand, though, is raising going to accomplish anything? Raising will fold out bluffs, which is exactly what I don't want to do.

  3. I think turn is a fold, you just aren't going to see a 13/9 barreling off as a bluff often enough to make it a profitable call. It's not a good turn card for him to barrel either, especially when your hand looks a lot like Jx

  4. Yeah I am shocked you stayed in this hand till the end, no way I call that river there because I know I am behind probably more than 90% of the time given his action on all three streets.

    He couldn't have A6s, 76s or 65s?

  5. Right from the beginning of this hand, I hold a bluff catcher. Based on his AF, I know he's not the type to check down, either. Given the 3 barrels, I know he's weighted to monster / air. He can't have an in-between hand - even trip 6's.

    Moreover, the whole hand he's set up for half stacks or thereabout... All of a sudden, he decides to push? What is he pushing with? Did the 2 on the river help him?

    Look at it this way: If I think I'm good on the flop, the turn doesn't help him at all; unless he has 6x which is unlikely from a 13/9. Compare his turn bet to his river bet: why does the river change anything, but yet he's shoving the river - betting less than half stack on the turn. The turn is saying he doesn't want to set up for stacks, but on the river he shoves anyway. There are a lot of hands that beat me, but not many hands that beat me and push stacks in on the river.


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