Thursday, August 19, 2010

What would you do? #165 - Missed value?

I think this may be the way a flopped dueces set works, though... I don't know if I have the courage to go broke against this opponent given the flop:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $59.60
MP1: $54.70
MP2: $58.20 - 6/6/ 16.7% 3bet / inf AF / 12 hands
CO: $50.00
BTN: $17.50
Hero (SB): $59.75
BB: $80.15
UTG: $34.50
UTG+1: $73.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 2h 2c
4 folds, MP2 raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) Qh Qs 2s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2.50, Hero raises to $6.50, MP2 calls $4

Turn: ($16.50) Ac (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $8.50, Hero calls $8.50
I feel like he can easily show up with AQ, and given my position, I start to work to pot control here. That Ace really really SUCKS! The problem is that he's been a very quiet in his 12 hand that I've played with him (statistically insignificant, but he's likely not raising with junk hands)...

River: ($33.50) 7s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

Final Pot: $33.50
MP2 shows Qd Kh (three of a kind, Queens) - I'm surprised he checks through the river given the strength of his hand, but it is the 3rd spade. I don't think I repped a spade draw, though, so this was interesting that he checks trips through on the river.
Hero shows 2h 2c (a full house, Twos full of Queens)
Hero wins $31.85
(Rake: $1.65)


  1. I think you should raise the flop more. Hands that are going to call $4 more will call $6-$8 more, and it will make your hand "look" like a flush draw. So he will likely still call with all of his pp's, and some flush draws. It also might entice him to 3bet a Q or with the nut flush draw.

    I don't have any issues with the turn play.

    I do think you could have bet/folded the river. I doubt he will raise the nut flush on the river if you bet more than 1/2 pot, and only complete nut jobs will raise just a bare Q. I don't think it is bad to check/call however, just slightly better to bet/fold because it will often go check/check when you have the best hand.

  2. very interesting hand! his stats seem to be incoherent, maybe? 6 / 6 / 16.7 in 12 hands does not quite add up...

  3. I could have mis-typed, but I'm pretty certain that the numbers are accurate. The 16.7% means that he's 3bet once I'd assume.

  4. Just bet turn imo, he is going to have a FD or Qx the majority of the time so there's really no reason to check turn. He could have a PP but we're not getting any more value from those anyway so just bet. Pot control shouldn't even cross your mind here!

  5. btw, I think you should remove the old Mediocre Poker blog from your blogroll - it's been hacked and Chrome is flagging it as malware every time someone visits your blog


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