What would you do? #155 - Outplayed or donkey?

This is two hand histories in one: a recap from my live Delaware Park session on 2010-07-16.

The first hand involved an UTG raiser who had not been altogether active, but kinda knew what he was doing.  It was clear, though, that he thought he was a lot better player than he actually was.  He was the wrap-around sunglasses type, trying to look intimidating whenever he had an opportunity.

We're playing 1/2 with ~$170 effective stacks - he raises to $10 from UTG.  There are 2 callers when action gets to me, in CO.  I decide to flat my JTo, and BTN obliges as well.  SB & BB fold, leaving us 5 to see a flop of:

J Q T rainbow

The 3 players to act before me (including the original raiser) check to me, and I lead $28 into ~$50 with my bottom two.  BTN, who had been a wonky player - very easy to read, clearly new to the game, not fearful of the money, instantly shoves all in - a total of $89.  A quick note on BTN: in hands prior, he was always laser quick to 3 bet when he had QQ+, which made for very easy folds because you knew when he had it.  Therefore, I was not in the least concerned about having BTN beat; I put him squarely on KQ, AQ - he figures he has TP + a gutshot / open ender.  However, here is where it gets weird: original raiser (UTG) decides to flat, with $50 behind.

WTF?  So, in my mind, my decision is either re-ship for the extra $50 ($140 total), or fold.  What would you do?  What does a UTG flat mean here?


Click to see results

I decided to ship; I think I would have a much more difficult decision, had UTG decided to re-ship... thus, I'd have to make a call for $140 instead of raising to $140.  I just can't put UTG on anything other than AK that has me beat.  I very distinctly feel like he has AA, KK (straight draw + overpair), and given that BTN likely has a similar hand, they hold outs against each other.

Well, BTN shows up with AQ (as expected), while UTG shows up with AK - for the flopped straight.  He got greedy, wanting me to call with a hand that cannot improve from the flop.  I don't blame him for that, but he didn't show his hand when we were all in - and only after the board paired Tens did he show his flopped straight and walk away in disgust, cursing up a storm.  I don't feel bad; you want me to feel bad, at least let me feel the feeling of having a losing hand turn into a winner - then I can relate to you.  If you're not going to show until you're beat, then too bad for you.

I'm really left wondering, though, with this hand: no question, I was outplayed, but should he ever be flatting there with $60 behind?  If I'm him, I want to go heads-up against one opponent.  I want to slam the door on all action, given that I have a vulnerable monster with at least one player showing significant action and another who opened the flop betting.  It's nice to hit a 4-outter and scoop a $420 pot...  never happens to me online :-(.

Second hand history was more curious than anything else - wasn't really anything my opponent or I could have done about it, and it wasn't for a ton of money:

I'm in the CO, and raise to $16, as I had been in prior hands, to punish the 4 limpers behind me (typically, I raise $10 + $2 per limper), but I didn't really want to raise so strong with my hand, which was KxJd.  Not concerned; hardly any of the players are aware enough to know what I'm doing and how I'm raising... moreover, enough to understand that I was light in my raise.  Either they're calling regardless of PF bet sizing or they're folding.

Anyway, I get a SB caller and MP1 caller.  We see a 3-way flop of:

Ad 5d 2x

It checks to me, and I lead $25 into ~$54...  part my my live play problem is not sizing up effective stack sizes after we see a flop.  I do this well prior to the flop - particularly when facing a PF raise.  However, when I'm the aggressor, I don't re-evaluate the caller's effective sizes.  Why is this important?  SB shoves his remaining $38, while MP1 folds.  At this point, I face a $13 call into a $117 pot - HUGE odds.  I'm not going to even ask the question...  no one is laying this sucker down, right?  nearly 10:1 odds - I can runner a straight, [potential] flush, split straight, runner two pair, trips, etc.  It's totally on the margins - I'm pretty sure I'm WAAAAYYY behind here, but I'm not folding for $13 more.  Well, after making the call, my opponent immediately shows 55 for the flopped set and I'm ready to throw my hand away - telling him good game...  and the board runs diamond diamond for the running flush and a nice $130 pot.  Because I'm not a bad guy; I did feel genuinely bad for this sick beat, I posted his blinds - before he finally got up in disgust a few hands later.

I guess it goes to show: who says live poker isn't rigged?