What would you do? #163 - Flopped trips vs. "the nuts"

A quick HH from my Delaware Park journey from a few weeks ago:

I sit in middle position.  The table had been a limp-fest...  I'm sitting on approx. $600 at a 1/2 game.  I watched 3 limpers behind me, and I opt to limp in with a marginal QTo.  It continues to limp around to the BTN, who limps as well and the SB completes.  BB checks the option.

The flop comes T T 2 rainbow.  In consideration of how to extract the most money, I opt to check the non-threatening board, with the intent to hope an Ace or King hit the turn / river.  However, the BTN decides to lead for $20 into an $18 pot.

An aside on the BTN: he's a guy who I would call "the nuts."  He's the type of player that plays the hands he's dealt.  He doesn't really consider individual reads, but sees a board and gets incredibly scared of any flush draws, straight draws, etc.  He would much prefer to win a small pot than lose a big one.  He only bets when he has a hand, but otherwise he opts to limp; I've seen him raise once or twice in the 3 hours I've been playing - he's shown down AA and KK in each instance.  He's not constantly limping - he has a semblance of hand strength and has never shown J2s or 83s or other garbage.  If he limps, he'll limp Axs, broadway, suited connectors, etc.

Back to the hand:  He has a $400 stack in front of him.  I opt to call - everyone else folds putting us HU to the turn which is a 7 offsuit.  I check again and he leads a second time for pot: $60.

What would you do?


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I thought about my options: raise, check / call down the turn and river or fold.  I have not seen this player make a poor decision all day, outside of the fact that he is too protective of his hands, not allowing opponents to draw at their hands.  He had been showing down close to, if not the nuts... and getting paid for it each time. Add to the situation the fact that this is a limped pot - and he's not particularly aggressive except with made hands, I have to give him credit for the case Ten at a minimum.  I don't think he has 22 for the flopped boat.  There are 2 Tx combos (AT, KT) that beat me and a 2 Tx combos (JT, T9) that I have beat, so I don't think my ranging is helping because both hands cancel each other out.  However, given my flat on the flop, I have to think that he is concerned about the strength of my Ten for him to continue to bet into me.  By flatting on the flop, I think I've given a pretty clear indication that I like my hand.

Raising:  If I were going to raise, I should have done it on the less-costly flop.  I could have raise to $60 right there, saving a bunch of money on the turn to "find out where I am."  If I'm raising, bad move by not raising the flop.

Check / call: I think this is acceptable, but I believe his plan is to pot the river again - which by this point is going to be a $200 bet.  This is pretty steep bet for a decent, but not great hand.

Therefore, I fold.  I'm pretty sure he has the Ace - I think he's value betting me... not quite sure why he pots each street, but that's been his pattern thus far.  After I fold, I asked him what he had; I believe him when he tells me he had AT - and he's shocked to find out I had QT.  It actually drives him a little nuts that I folded there; he was pissed and felt I shouldn't have folded there...  "How can you fold there?!?!?!?  How can you fold that!??!?!?"  :-)  It was a genuine reaction.  My first "monster" laydown at 1/2 live.