Thursday, August 26, 2010

What would you do? #168 - Overpair facing shove on turn

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $26.75
UTG: $46.90
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $51.00
MP1: $34.50
MP2: $19.50
CO: $52.65
Hero (BTN): $50.95
SB: $59.55 - 15/11 / 50% steal / 6.3% 3bet / 1.7AF - 47 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Qh Qc
UTG calls $0.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB calls $2.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($8.00) 3s 5c 6s (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $5.25, SB calls $5.25, UTG folds

Turn: ($18.50) 5h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $51.80 all in, Hero ???
No clue.  Is this bluff catcher time?  He sees me as somewhat of a stealer, but is he ever shoving this board without something that beats my overpair?  Am I outplayed here?

Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

Final Pot: $38.50
SB wins $36.60
(Rake: $1.90)
Posted by The Poker Meister at 8/26/2010 09:00:00 AM
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 26, 2010 at 10:07 AM

    I do think he shoves worse. Specifically, 44, 67, 77-JJ.

    However, he will also likely shove with any 5 (45, 56, 57, A5) and possibly any boat if he figures you for an overpair and won't ever fold it.

    All that adds up to a close decision. I make the call, but don't think either a call or fold is much different in the long run. One just has a lot more variance.

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  2. matt tagAugust 26, 2010 at 10:53 AM

    I call this. He thinks you're just a blind stealer. There are no 5s in this tight player's calling range except pocket fives. He doesn't have 24 or 47.

    He only beats you if he flopped a set or slowplayed KK/AA. I'm not sure he does that preflop with UTG still to act behind him.

    And with a 6.3% 3bet, I might think that he would have 3bet some of those small pairs as well.

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