Tuesday, August 3, 2010

What would you do? #154 - When to fold AK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $19.05
BTN: $50.00
SB: $56.25
Hero (BB): $54.25 - 23/19 / 6.7% 3bet / 44% steal
UTG: $57.50 - 25/10 / 40% steal / 0% 3bet - 118 hands
UTG+1: $50.00
MP1: $61.45
MP2: $74.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Kc Ah
UTG raises to $1.50, 3 folds, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.25, UTG raises to $57.50 all in, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME, 1 fold
Although there's now $7.75 in trapped money, I really feel like he's not doing this without KK+. He's never 3bet, and he's raising UTG. The odds are lined up against me.

Final Pot: $14.25
UTG wins $14.25


  1. flipping a coin at best, IMO. Why flip a coin for a stack? That's not poker

  2. It is .25/.50, but his stats indicate he may be the type to shove protecting 1010-QQ too, but matt is right, almost certainly a coin flip.

  3. Players with 3bet%=0 at 128 hands are not 4-betting all-in pre-flop with 10s-QQ. Regardless I poker stoved 10s+, AKs since I think we can all agree that this is his range at the widest/spazziest:

    287,667,072 games
    Hand 1 Equity {AKo}: 33.237%
    Hand 2 Equity {QQ+,AKs}: 66.763%

    This is no time to take a stand.

  4. I think AA or KK are unlikely in the overall scheme of things actually. Making any judgments based on stats for 128 hands is a laughable proposition. All that said, he's gotta have a pocket pair and I would not take that race for all these chips either in this spot.

  5. I think AK is a hand to get others to fold not call off 100bb+ when your losing $3.50 over a life time of doing that and losing 1.50is to a chip the other times.

    It always feels bad but I fold AK when I am not the agressor and there is crazy action like this.
    IMO good fold

  6. @Hoy - I've over-shoved a 3bet with AA,KK plenty of times to get spaz / snap called by AK, QQ, etc. I find this particularly true in tournaments, where your general donk is more than happy to get all in pre flop with AK.

    That said, I am making this move as a player dependent play. If I have a lot of history where I see a low 3bet % on my opponent, or I've been shoving a lot of hands at the particular table, I'm much more prone to get a call by over-shoving in this spot.

  7. @Hoy. What is your reasoning for thinking that AA/KK is not likely here? As far as I can tell, villain has provided me with every reason to believe he has one of these hands more often than not. How often do you see people 4-bet shoving 100BB+ in 50NL?

  8. @Hoy - I clicked publish before I completed my thought - What I wanted to add was that this is an effective play sometimes for villain to shove after a 3bet. Therefore, I'm surprised that you think AA KK are unlikely. I think there are plenty of tourney / cash players who are happy to stack off in this spot. Hell - a 50/50 prop is the best odds some of these players are ever gonna see.

    So far as making a judgment after 128 hands - gotta make a judgment sometime, no? 128 hands is significant enough to give opportunity for a 3bet, no?

  9. To clarify, I am going by the math, which indicate that AA or KK are still not the most likely hands when considering the entire range of hands with which the villain might re-reraise here. On top of that, the overpush is used sometimes with a strong hand, but many players would not insta-push allin if they actually had aces or kings. If anything, this is more of a TT, JJ, QQ or AQ type of play than an AA or KK play. Obviously it could be AA or KK but to act like it is clearly one of those hands is taking a minority possibility and saying its likely true.

    On top, I will repeat, 128 hands is not close to something I would even consider acting on when it comes to online "reads". When I play live and can see the person, I will lay a read on them right there the first time I see it if it feels right, but online, just because a guy hasn't re-reraised over 128 hands does not at all mean that when he does, he has to have AA or KK. That is just a misunderstanding of the application of the stats IMO.

    Oh and btw, assigning any real consistent logic to players at the 50NL level just further complicates the issue IMO. To think that a guy playing 50nl is good enough to only 3-bet with AA and KK preflop is taking a monster leap that has not worked out well for me over time.

  10. @Hoy - I understand the reasoning behind discounting AA or KK; there are only 3 combos of each since I have both an A and K myself.

    However, it's not just a 0% 3bet but we're dealing with a 4bet shove. You can certainly take a line of "light 3betting." I've done it to you plenty in tournament play ;-). However, this is a Full Ring 4bet SHOVE from a dude who raises 10% of his hand and has NEVER 3bet. I'm not seeing that move often... hardly ever, with the exception of when they hold AA, KK. AQ? Not seeing it. QQ? Yeah, I've seen it - *RARELY* JJ. Even if I add JJ to omgitsjoshua's mix of QQ+,AK, I'm still a 60/40 dog. Even with the dead money in the pot, $7.75, I don't know that it warrants a call.

    BTW, I added a new link to the Links section of my blog called EV+ Poker Tools, which allows you to PokerStove hands online. I can get to it from work as I assume most people can as well.

    Despite the intertwined discussions, we all agree that this is a fold, not a call.

  11. I think I missed the point that this was a re-re-reraise shove preflop. I thought we were talking about a 3-bet from a guy who hadn't 3-bet in 128 hands so far. If you're saying he 4-bet shoved and he hasn't even 3-bet once yet in 128 hands, that definitely increases the likelihood of Aces or Kings for sho.

    And yeah, in any event I think people rush to get AK allin pre in cash too much. While I would not be surprised if that strategy worked ok at the 50nl level, in general it's not the kind of poker you want to aspire to play me thinks.

  12. So I suppose we can retract Hoy's statement of this being a "laughable proposition" now that we understand the situation.

  13. You anonymous, cowardly pussy.

  14. @Anonymous x2 - I actually was appreciative of the comment "...now that we understand the situation." I meant to write something up but time got the better of me. No sense in flaming anyone for their opinion so long as it's well founded. I think it's great that the blog is starting to build more of a commenting fan base. The more opinions, the better.

  15. And for the second anonymous: I do note the irony of you posting anonymously. :-)


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