TOC cash

Now that I'm at a stable location, I can post a quick "I cashed!"  It was not at all pretty, filled with plenty of suckouts and coolers - but I managed to luck my way into a 5th place finish.

Details to follow, but the short of it is: I'm in Ankara, Turkey on business.  Ankara is 7 hours ahead of east coast time, meaning that I was playing at 5 in the morning.  Moreover, I fly back to DC today - my flight from Ankara to Istanbul was scheduled for 10am. I managed to secure a broadband 3G card from work, and was forced to play on the go - in the hotel lobby, the 30 minute taxi ride and the airport (through security).  Oh yeah, and it's illegal to play in Turkey - they block the sites.  So I had to set up a VPN to my home network prior to travel, and VPN in over a broadband 1 megabit connection to the US in order to just get online in the first place.  I timed out quite a few times, with the last time being in a canyon shortly before the 12:55 (I think) break.  I nearly ran out of battery, and simply played the cards I was dealt for the last 40-60 minutes of the tournament.

Less than ideal conditions, but somehow, I was able to run good enough to cash!  Go me!

What would you do?#113 - Facing 4 flush river bet

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $92.30
UTG+1: $89.55
Hero (UTG+2): $50.00
MP1: $44.90
MP2: $20.00
CO: $12.50
BTN: $65.15
SB: $57.50
BB: $56.85 - 27/9 / NA ats / 16.7% 3bet / 1.0 AF / 11 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with 7d 7c
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 5 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 5c 6c 7s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.75) 2c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB calls $3.75

River: ($11.25) Ac (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero ???


Click to see results

Four flush really SUCKS. With very little money vested, I think I have to fold this out. I check the flop to "let him catch up" and it backfired in my face.
Hero folds

Final Pot: $11.25
BB wins $10.70
(Rake: $0.55)

What would you do?#112 - Interesting second pair call

I don't know whether this was a good check on the turn, but I think this was a pretty well-played hand:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $51.00
Hero (BB): $101.85
UTG: $22.15
UTG+1: $50.75
UTG+2: $20.85
MP1: $30.85
MP2: $60.15
CO: $67.85 - 19/13/0 ats/ 0.0 3bet / inf aggr @ 16 hands
BTN: $47.00 - No info on Button


Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 2c Tc
5 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.75) Td Ad 9h (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1, BTN calls $1, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $2.50, BTN calls $2.50
Semi bluff for me; weak CO bet, flat BTN call is scary, but I really want to press both of them.

Turn: ($12.25) 6c (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks
Talk about a brick; I was trying to check raise here again, depending on the size of the CO's expected bet, but it didn't work out.  I thought a lead here would be too fishy.

River: ($12.25) 7s (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.75, BTN folds, Hero calls $6.75
To recap, I check / raised the flop... in CO's eyes "on a draw."  I've now checked the last two streets.  CO has to think he can take me off of my hand...  had he bet pot or over pot, he probably could have.  As is, though, he gives me a great price to call with my bluff catcher.

I can't put him on a single hand that he bets the river with that beats me, where he's not re-raising the flop or leading the turn.

Final Pot: $25.75
Hero shows 2c Tc (a pair of Tens)
CO shows Jd Kd (Ace King high)
Hero wins $24.50
(Rake: $1.25)

What would you do?#111 - Facing flop autoshove against very aggro opponent

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $62.45
UTG: $50.75
UTG+1: $59.30
UTG+2: $14.20
MP1: $51.60
MP2: $29.35
CO: $63.65 - 100/100/ 100% steal / 100% 3bet / inf aggression / 2 hands
BTN: $74.80
Hero (SB): $53.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 7d Ah
5 folds, CO raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, CO raises to $15.50, Hero calls $10.50

Flop: ($31.50) 8s 9c Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $48.15 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

I think this is a really dangerous player. If he doesn't show up with 100% aggression pre-flop, I'm tossing this away without a second thought. In fact, I'm not even calling pre-flop. His CO raise is suspect, and his 4bet is suspect. He's either playing bully or has a monster. I thought long and hard about making this call or passively tossing it and came to the following thought:
He's shoving pairs of Jacks and all sets. He's also shoving much more air, because there's no reason to shove here. Not a ton of a "typical" 4bet range smacked this flop. If he has KK, QQ, so be it, but I'm not drawing completely dead (an overcard and a 6 pretty much assure me to the nuts; 7 outs minimum.

As it turns out, I'm ahead 60/40.
Hero calls $37.90 all in

Turn: ($107.30) 3d (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($107.30) 3c (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $107.30
CO shows Kh Qh (a pair of Threes)
Hero shows 7d Ah (a pair of Threes)
Hero wins $104.30
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #110 - Facing very coordinated flop from 4bet pre-flop

Sorry for the break from "Back to Basics," but I haven't had time to write an article on the next subject.  For now, here is a WWYD - hopefully I'll be able write an entry for next Monday. 

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $44.42
Hero (BB): $25.25
UTG: $26.19
UTG+1: $41.21
UTG+2: $51.31
MP1: $27.28
MP2: $32.00
CO: $65.83 - 23/19/ 27% steal / 11.1% 3bet / 67 fold to 3bet
BTN: $33.98

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Kd Qc
5 folds, CO raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, CO raises to $7, Hero calls $4.50
First what would you do: this guy is aware of what a steal is.  Are you folding to his 4bet?  11.1% 3bet coupled with his steal %.  I've seen a lot of this steal re-steal.

Flop: ($14.10) Ts Qs 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $18.25 all in, CO calls $18.25
Second what would you do: Are you shoving here or check / folding or check / calling?  What is your course of action?

I really put him on a bluff 4bet and air here.  I don't want a single spade drawing to the win for free.

Turn: ($50.60) 6h (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($50.60) 9d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $50.60
Hero shows Kd Qc (two pair, Queens and Nines)
CO shows Jc Ah (a pair of Nines)
Hero wins $48.07
(Rake: $2.53)

What would you do?#109 - Flat / raised pre-flop + 2 barrels

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $63.90
BTN: $47.70
SB: $18.10
BB: $116.65
UTG: $89.20
UTG+1: $151.40
UTG+2: $54.15 - 13 / 8 / 41% ATS / 2.9% 3bet
Hero (MP1): $119.35
MP2: $61.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Kc Kh
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 4 folds, BB calls $2, UTG+2 raises to $9.50, Hero calls $7, BB calls $7

Flop: ($28.75) 6h 5s Jd (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets $12, Hero calls $12, BB folds

Turn: ($52.75) Qd (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $18, Hero folds
Only thing I can believe is AA, but if it's not AA, then QQ or JJ...  I have to be beat at this point, right?  What other hands (other than KK) are flat / raising pre-flop like that, and setting up for stacks on the turn?  TT is not, AK may be overplayed, but are they continuing like this?  Less likely.  What do you think?

Final Pot: $52.75
UTG+2 wins $50.15
(Rake: $2.60)

Gotta hand it to the Devil Rays

They come into Yankee Stadium and simply DESTROY the Yankees.  Right now, they are the best team in baseball.

What would you do?#108 - Facing river shove with mid pocket pair

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $22.90
Hero (MP1): $55.00
MP2: $53.20 - 15/10 / 37% 3bet / 2.1 aggression factor @ 599 hands
CO: $28.20
BTN: $18.30
SB: $55.95
BB: $56.45
UTG: $59.40
UTG+1: $56.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 7s 7d
UTG raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, MP2 calls $1.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.75) 6d 6s 2d (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.75, MP2 calls $3.75, BTN folds, UTG folds

Turn: ($15.25) Jh (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP2 calls $10

River: ($35.25) 8h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $37.70 all in, Hero ???
Are you calling? Why? What do you have the villain's range on?


Click to see results

Hero calls $37.70
I'm finding that more and more, these types are situations are completely polarized. I find that a check turn induces a lot of river bluffs, and river checks induce the same. The whole hand has been played so passively that the only reasonable hand that has me crushed and would be played like this is 22, which would have been horribly played. Obviously, overpairs have me beat, but are the calling 2 streets and shoving the river? His bet pattern does not make sense whatsoever, especially with a 2.1 aggression factor.
Final Pot: $110.65
Hero shows 7s 7d (two pair, Sevens and Sixes)
MP2 shows Kd Ad (a pair of Sixes)
Hero wins $107.65
(Rake: $3.00)

Pathetic state of the retirees in this country

Found this in my personal finance blogs:

"About 65% of people age 55 and older have less than $100,000 in retirement savings; just 37% have saved less than $25,000, while around one-third have less than $10,000, according to Employee Benefit Research Institute’s 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey."

WTF?  Is this scary to anyone else?  Seriously?  Why do most people have next to nothing saved in retirement?  Why isn't this more of a priority for our nation?  I understand that this does not account for primary residences or defined benefits (pension, etc.), but come on!  $10K?  (I truly wish this survey included defined benefit plans and overall net worth, because it would paint much more of a complete picture.)  What a bleak future for retirees.

My take is that I don't understand why companies don't employ an opt-out plan for 401(k) savings.  Essentially, part of the employee's benefits package assumes you set aside income into this tax-deferred savings account, rather than having the employee actively filling out paper work to start the 401(k) plan.  It's a simple change and I think it would automatically encourage new employees to utilize the system.  It's much easier to passively be enrolled than it is to expect the employee to actively seek to be enrolled; most people are lazy and don't care.

Rant over.

What would you do?#107 - When to fold AK?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $54.55
CO: $62.60
BTN: $54.45
Hero (SB): $61.05
BB: $93.10- 7/4 / 0% 3bet / 0% steal / infinite aggression factor @ 137 hands
UTG: $13.85
UTG+1: $72.40
UTG+2: $59.25
MP1: $104.45

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah Kc
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $4, BB raises to $12, 3 folds, Hero requests TIME, 1 fold
Am I too nitty here by folding AK?  I have to believe that in 137 hands, he's had ample opportunity to 3bet...  he chooses now, in the BB, with 4 players to act, to 3bet?  I have to assume that he has AA or KK...  What would you do?

Final Pot: $9.50
BB wins $9.50

What would you do?#106 - Slow played KK

I've been playing around with a few different styles, with my main focus being deceptive play. I've been check / raising a lot more flops, trying to slow play monster PF hands, etc. As a result, I've been getting into a few more interesting situations, where, out of position, I'm having tough decisions:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $72.55
Hero (UTG): $69.90
UTG+1: $51.25
UTG+2: $31.05
MP1: $30.10
MP2: $89.95 - 9/4/ 11% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.5 aggression factor over 157 hands
CO: $126.45
BTN: $50.00
SB: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Ks Kd
Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.50, 1 fold, BB checks
Well, when I was looking ahead at the players in front of me, I saw a bunch of aggros that I figured would be raising.  I did not get what I wished for, as I now face a handful of limpers.

Flop: ($2.25) 7c Qs 2s (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, MP2 raises to $4.50, BTN folds, BB folds, Hero calls $3
No Ace, which is a good thing.  I think it may be a mistake to lead this flop; instead I should be going for a check / raise.  However, when I get raised, I have a tough decision... remember this is a 9/4 we're dealing with...  The one good thing about this hand is that I'm no longer monkey-in-the-middle; i.e. BB & BTN have folded so we're HU.

I decide to cautiously call the raise.

Turn: ($11.25) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $6, Hero calls $6
Check / call and hope for a cheap river...

River: ($23.25) 4c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $12.50, Hero calls $12.50
And finally, a fairly "cheap" river.  Very dangerous... I know...

Final Pot: $48.25
Hero shows Ks Kd (a pair of Kings)
MP2 shows Qc Ah (a pair of Queens)
Hero wins $45.85
(Rake: $2.40)

So here's the What would you?  Given that you're determined to slow play KK, and you get limped on, what do you differently in the hand?  Are you raising at all?  Are you going to be nit / passive like me?

His flop raise shouted sets to me, but by the river bet, I felt a lot more comfortable that he did NOT want stacks in, and bet half pot, indicating a medium strength (i.e. TPTK) hand, which is where I probably failed to make the proper read and raise the river.  Oh well; I learn for next time.

Disagree?  Is this dangerous though?

What goes around I guess...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $59.10
BTN: $57.10
SB: $18.25
BB: $48.75
UTG: $69.10
UTG+1: $39.65
Hero (UTG+2): $56.55
MP1: $122.50
MP2: $52.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Kd Kc
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.50, 6 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 4d Kh 6h (2 players)
UTG bets $4, Hero raises to $12, UTG raises to $20, Hero raises to $54.05 all in, UTG calls $34.05

Turn: ($113.85) 6s (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($113.85) Ts (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $113.85
UTG shows 6d 6c (four of a kind, Sixes)
Hero shows Kd Kc (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
UTG wins $110.85
(Rake: $3.00)

Back to Basics: Pot Odds, Hand Equity and Implied Odds

I'm starting to realize that some of my readers are quite new to poker... or perhaps don't have basics and fundamentals down pat.  In addition to my random strategy posts, I plan on starting a new segment call "Back to Basics."  To most readers, this will be elementary, but I feel it serves good purpose to hammer down fundamentals of pre- and post- flop play.  Perhaps I will learn a thing or two from the comments section, as well.  I can't promise anything, but I do plan on trying to post a new "Back to Basics" every Monday.


As a quick recap of prior posts, readers interested in this series would be best served by reading my thoughts on Poker Tracking / Datamining software, Bankroll Management, Rakeback Agreements, and Pre- / Post- Game Process Parts I, II, III & IV, to have a good footing on terms, assumptions and an understanding of my poker philosophy.  Also see prior "Back To Basics" back-posts.

Welcome back to the second segment of Back to Basics.  This entry will cover two fundamental poker formulas: pot odds and hand equity.  The two term, for the most part, go hand-in-hand, for the simple fact that a player can comprehend the formulas and instantly apply them to his or her own game.  It should be noted that a player not using these two ideas who begins to apply them to their game is a better player than before, but these ideas should not be used in a vacuum; i.e. as a good player, you need to consider your opponent's holdings vs. your own.

That said, let's get into the definition of both terms.

Pot Odds:
As defined by wikipedia (the internet gospel on *EVERYTHING* :-) ) it is "... the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call. In other words, if the pot contains $100, and a player must call $10 to stay in the hand, then the player has 100-to-10, or 10-to-1 (commonly expressed as 10:1), pot odds. Pot odds are often compared to the probability of winning a hand with a future card in order to estimate the call's expected value. Indeed, a common usage of the term is to say that one "has pot odds", meaning that the present pot odds, compared to one's estimated chance of winning, make it profitable to call."

Personally, I am terrible with ratios, so I like to convert these ratios to percentages, since I am a lot better equipped to handle one simple number... therefore I add the two numbers together and divide by the first (in my head, so I give a rough estimate of the number).  For the example above, to demonstrate my thought process, I add 10 + 1 (=11), take the 1 from the ration and divide it by the sum 11.  I know that 1 into 11 does not go evenly, but 1 into 10 does (=.1 or 10%), so I'm going to rough the number by saying it equals about 8-9%; slightly less than 1 into 10...  It's a simple shortcut, but I don't need to be exact since poker is not a game of exact numbers. (You're making educated guesses at your opponents cards anyway, right?)

What do pot odds tell us in layman's terms?  They tell us the price we're being offered to act upon (fold, call, raise).  I don't know about you, but I want a bargain when it comes to purchases; I don't want to overpay for things that I can get cheaper.  The same holds true with poker; if my opponent is offering me a bargain, I take it.  If not, I fold.

What?  I don't understand!  Who cares?  Allow me to illustrate the concept in terms of flipping a 2-sided coin: for every coin flip of heads you pay me $6 and for every flip tails, I pay you $4, you would be getting (in this case straight, not pot, because we're talking about coin flips, not cards) 4-to-10 on your bet, or 40%, on what we all know to be a 50/50 (50%) true odds bet.  I'm giving you an awful bet, and you should [rightfully] say "Go pound sand," or something less polite :-).  Perhaps in the short term, 1, 2, 5, even 25 flips, you may hit more heads than tails and actually make money.  In the long term, though, you know you're going to lose money - flip that coin every day for the rest of your life and you'll be a big loser.  However, if the situation is reversed, I'd become your best friend because I'd essentially be giving money away.

Implied Odds:
Again, courtesy of wikipedia (the internet gospel on *EVERYTHING* :-) ), implied odds "... are calculated the same way as pot odds, but take into consideration estimated future betting. Implied odds are calculated in situations where the player expects to fold in the following round if the draw is missed, thereby losing no additional bets, but expects to gain additional bets when the draw is made. Since the player expects to always gain additional bets in later rounds when the draw is made, and never lose any additional bets when the draw is missed, the extra bets that the player expects to gain, excluding his own, can fairly be added to the current size of the pot. This adjusted pot value is known as the implied pot.

Example (Texas Hold'em)
On the second to last betting round, Alice's hand is certainly behind and she faces a $1 call to win a $10 pot against a single opponent. There are four cards remaining in the deck that make her hand a certain winner. Her odds of drawing to one of those cards is 10.5:1 (8.7 percent). Since the pot lays 10:1, Alice will lose money by calling if there is no future betting. However, she expects her opponent to call her additional $1 bet which she will make when she makes her draw. She will fold when she misses her draw (and lose no additional bets). Her implied pot odds are 11:1 ($10 plus the expected $1 call, to her additional $1 bet). This call now has a positive expectation."

Simply put: What are the odds that I will get the rest of my opponents stack by making the play in question.  How does all of this tie into Hand Equity?

Hand Equity:
Every hand holds a particular value.  Each hand has a different value, or chance of winning vs. a different hand (or set of hands).  If everyone were dealt hands face up, you could compare two hands against one-another and draw certain mathematical facts.  It is from these hand values that you can conclude your percentage chances of wining a particular hand.  Just as in the coin flip example above, where you know if you flip a coin an infinite number of times, you will be exactly 50/50 on your heads and tails, if you were to deal a combination of cards against one another an infinite number of times, (although there are many more variables) the particular hand in question vs. the opposing hand is going to win a certain percentage of the time.

• From a pre-flop perspective, there are hand rankings where the strongest hands have more equity vs. the weakest hands.  For example, AA, the strongest starting hand in Hold'em, has ~80% equity when seeing a flop heads-up vs. KK (the second strongest starting hand in poker), which is true for all pairs vs. lower pairs all the way down to 33 vs. 22.  On the same vein, any pair vs. any two overcards (e.g. 88 vs. KJ or 22 vs. AK is worth roughly 50% equity.  If you are interested in running a Monte Carlo simulation on hands vs. other hands, there is a GREAT free tool available, called PokerStove, which allows you to simply plug in 2 or more hands and compare them against each other.  Since there are 1326 possible starting hand combinations in Hold'em (just trust me, I'm not going to do the math), the pre-flop hand comparisons are fairly static in nature.  In other words, over time, you will be able to memorize the average strength of hands against other hands, which is why pre-flop hand selection is so critical to a winning player.  For more information on starting hand strength, see my post Odds Scenarios.  It may be a tremendous help the fledgling player.
  
  Realize as I'm sure you have by now, that any two cards can win a hand.  You can play 72o (which is the theoretically worst starting hand combination in hold'em) against AA and win at a clip of 12.5% of the time if both players see the hand through to the river. Will that win you money over the long term?  Perhaps, if your opponent is dumb not intelligent and you can get all of the money in the center when you're ahead (in the 12.5% of the time), and are able to fold the other 87.5%.  You have the implied odds to play just about any two cards against him, even though you are not getting appropriate pot odds.  However, the real world is not a vacuum, and not all players hold AA to your 72o, nor are they always willing to push all-in on your 72o against a board of 7-7-2 or A 3 4 5 x.  Therefore, your hand selection is important, because 72o, when played over the long run, is a money loser.
  
  Tying directly into pot odds, though, let's say UTG (who is an extremely tight player who would only raise holding AA) raises 3x BB on a 9-person table.  You sit in the big blind holding 72o, and watch as the entire 7 players preceding him call.  The pot would contain 9 (players) * 3x (big blinds) + 1 (for your big blind) 28 total big blinds.  You'd be getting 28 to 3 (by my math, roughly 9%) pot odds to make the call with literally ANY TWO CARDS; it'd be well worth it to you to make the call in that spot.
• From a flop and beyond perspective, though, you can now calculate your direct equity from the hand you hold.  Since you can now complete a 5 card hand, you can compare your 5 card hand and, if you feel it is an underdog, calculate the odds of improving to the winning hand.
  
  At the heart of this process of odds calculation is your ability to count the number of cards which will improve your hands by the turn or river.  You need to be able to somewhat accurately put a hand to your opponent.  For example, if you are holding AK, and a flop of 5 7 T hits, you need an A or K on the turn or river to potentially improve your hand to the winner (assuming your opponent has a pair of Queens or lower.
  
  To continue with the example above, you can calculate your available out cards as the 3 remaining Aces in the deck (4 total, you hold 1, therefore 3, in theory remain), and 3 remaining Kings (same logic as counting Aces), which gives you a total of 6 out cards to improve your hand.  Keeping with imperfect math, we want to get a rough idea of the percentage of time our hand will improve to the winner.  We can do this by multiplying the number of outs we have for improvement by 2x the number of cards we expect to receive on future streets.  Given the above example, we are on the flop and expect 2 more cards (turn and river).  Therefore, we multiply our 6 out cards x 2 (the magic number) x 2 cards expected to receive to get our estimated chances on having a winning hand by the river.  The product of 6x2x2 = 24%.  P.S.  If you've ever watched the World Series of Poker, or any other poker series (High Stakes Poker, etc.), you'll see percentage odds on the side of your screen for each hand in play.  Armed with the rule of 2x and 4x, you too can quickly (and roughly figure out the equity percentages of each hand.
  
  Note: Pertaining to the example above, you need to be sure that your opponent did not flop a set (pocket pair + 3rd of the rank on the board for 3-of-a-kind), because even if you turn an Ace and river and Ace, you are holding 3-of-a-kind to his rivered [Tens, for example] full of Aces for the rivered boat.  Following, you are almost drawing dead on the flop to a set.  Just the same, you need to carefully put your opponent an appropriate hand; i.e. if he holds AT to the 5 7 T board, only a King will improve your hand because a turned or rivered Ace will give him 2 pair and you one; the rule of 2x 4x would give you 3 outs, or 3 x 2 x 2 = 12% to the winning hand in that case.
  
  One more example: a popular one; flush draws:
  Referring to the previous post Back to Basics post on suited connectors, let's create a scenario where I hold 9s8s and the flop comes As 2s Jd.  Assuming that my opponent does not have a higher flush draw, but holds a pair of Aces or Jacks, I can count my out cards as follows: 13 total spades (as with every - 2 on the board - 2 in my hand leaves me with 9 spades.  I expect 2 cards to come, yielding me a hand equity of 9 (outs) x 2 (turn card) x 2 (river card) = roughly 36% equity in the hand.
  
  Now, let's change the flop around a big and give ourselves a flop of: 6s 7s Ad... we have a flush draw, a straight draw, and a straight flush draw.  At this point, for all intents and purposes, we have a MONSTER hand which holds at least 50% equity against almost all hands.  How?  We need to take care in counting our outs, because we don't want to count cards twice, a common mistake, but here goes:  We know we have 9 outs for the spade draw, as in the above scenario.  However, we also have an additional 4 5's and 4 Tens, which will give us a straight.  Ooops!  Are there really 4 5's and 4 Ten's though?  We've double-counted our ranked cards because we've already counted the 5s and the Ts in our spade out cards as 2 of the available 9.  Therefore, there are really only 3 5's and 3 Tens which we can cleanly count, giving us 6 straight out cards.  9 flush + 6 straight out cards gives us 15 total out cards x 2 (turn card) x 2 (river card) = 60%(!?!?!?!?!) equity.  How is that possible?  I'm actually ahead without having a made hand... which emphasizes the power of a suited connector (yes, you are ahead of a 1 pair made hand such as Aces or pocket pairs).  If you put your opponent on a pair, it would not be incorrect to get all of the money in the middle given any pot odds.  Look at the same example and figure out your equity if you put your opponent on a set of 6's or two pair: Aces and 7's .  What about if your opponent has the AsKs (answers at the bottom)?

Tying it all together
If you haven't already jumped to the conclusion, let me sum it up for you.  A simple / quick estimate of whether you're getting an immediate bargain is comparing your hand equity to the pot odds offered.  Simply, if the pot odds are less than the hand equity, then it's an easy call (if you're facing a 20% pot bet but your hand equity is 32%).

If the pot odds are not as good as the hand equity, but you feel as though making your hand would get your opponent to stack off his remaining stack to you, then mix in the element of implied odds (such as the example of playing 72o vs. AA).  You usually want to have a good amount of your villain's stack remaining on the river in order to get proper implied odds.

* Given you hold 9s8s and the flop is 6s7sAd:

• If your opponent holds 6 6, your equity is reduced by one out, the As, which would give him 6's full of Aces vs. your Flush; 14 (outs) * 2 (turn) * 2 (river) = 56%.  Your equity is also reduced by another TBD (to be determined) card on the turn, 13 (outs) * 2 (river) = 26% chance of improving from the turn to the river.
• If your opponent holds A 7, your equity is reduced by one out, the As, which would again, give him Aces full of 7's vs. your Flush.  However, you do not lose an out card on the turn because the As is the only card that will make your hand while betting his.
• If your opponent holds AsKs, then you are in a whole new ballgame; the only out cards you have are any 5 and any Ten, making you either a straight or a straight flush.  Therefore 4 5's + 4 Tens = 8 * 2 * 2 = 32%.

What would you do?#105 - Facing a ~half pot river bet with top two on a 3 flush board

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $48.05
SB: $54.35
BB: $20.00
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $95.30 - 21/17 / 29% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.8 aggression factor
UTG+2: $53.50
MP1: $28.30
Hero (MP2): $108.25
CO: $169.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Jc As
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) Ac 6s 6h (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($12.75) Jh (2 players)
UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 bets $8.75, Hero calls $8.75
I am 100% sure I'm good here.  I've played this hand deceptively and my villain has no idea where he is in the hand.

River: ($30.25) 5s (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $18.15, Hero calls $18.15
Since he has no idea where he is in the hand, he can't lead for so much on the river, can he?  I think I slow-played myself into a corner.  However, I can't raise at this point, right?  My hand is basically a bluff catcher?  I don't know.  Maybe I'm wrong not to raise for value here?

Final Pot: $66.55
UTG+1 shows Td Qd (a pair of Sixes)
Hero shows Jc As (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
Hero wins $63.55
(Rake: $3.00)

To solar or not to solar...

If you know me personally, you know that I'm always looking for ways to increase my income apart from my day job, whether it be via arbitrage of goods through ebay or supplementing my income with poker or any other handful of ways I find in my daily travels (as well as looking for ways to reduce my daily / yearly expenditure like re-financing).

Recently, I have been toying with the idea of adding a solar panels to my roof as an alternate energy system.  I am writing because I want to know if anyone has thoughts on it, or has one themselves...  I have been talking with two companies and been provided estimates - the best of whom is $32,100 for a 24x230W (5.5kW total system).

The immediate benefits (at least in Maryland) are multi-fold:

• Federal tax credit of 30%; $9630 off within the first year
• Maryland state grant out of federal stimulus plan: $2500 + $2640 = $5140 off within the first year
• $1.25/ watt for the first 2,000 watts of capacity
• $0.75/ watt for watts 2,001 - 8,000
• $0.25/ watt for watts 8,001 - 20,000 
•  Montgomery county tax credit within 2 years (there is currently a waiting list for this credit): $5000

Add it up, and within 2 years, I expect to receive  $19,770 in refunded money, bringing the net cost of the system to $12,330.  But wait, that's not all!  None of the above accounts for reduction of energy costs, in addition to the secondary market for solar renewable energy credits (SRECs), which are quite lucrative.

The recurring benefits (at least in Maryland) are multi-fold:

• According to PVWATTS, the energy generated / savings to my power bill will be approximately $720 / year, producing a total 6,443 kWh ideally throughout the year
• The SRECs, assuming a price of $340 / kWh amount to roughly $2190 / year.

Therefore, I am looking at a cash flow of $2900 / year, which will pay off my system in around 4 1/4 years.

The question I have is: Is it worth the hassle for $2900 / year in the out-years?  The amount in question is less than 2% of our family budget, and the hassle factor would be opening a line of credit against the house (I don't want to lay out $32K).  The extra motivation is that this is "trickle" money; I don't have to do anything except sell the SRECs, once the system is installed an paid off... and the money is recurring EVERY YEAR.

What would you do?  Does anyone out there have a alternate energy system?  Am I being stupid not to jump on this and deal with the hassle?  I figure I can get a HELOC at around 6% (again, avoiding laying out the $30K), pay off the first portion and be stuck with a $240 payment / month, roughly the same amount that the system will generate, over 5 years.  Thoughts?

TableNinjaFT officially launched

As a quick update on the previous post, TableNinja for Full Tilt has been officially released.  The version I was working with during my post was in beta, but the now they have an official version.

A bit of information on TableNinja for those who are not in the know: it provides keyboard shortcuts for table actions.  It tremendously speeds up my game (particularly on Rush) simply by the fact that I don't need to aim my mouse at the tiny action buttons.  All I need to do now is move the mouse from window to window, aiming at the particular window I want to act on, and click the assigned keyboard shortcut.  Coupled with the N52TE from the previous post, I am a very speedy poker force (sometimes too speedy, where I misclick :-) )!

Anyway, I grabbed a few bullets from their website, in the event that you don't have the opportunity to learn more about it.

General Features

• Provides lightning-fast tools and shortcuts that make playing on PokerStars® easier and more profitable.
• Works with what you play — Cash Games, Tournaments, Sit-n-Gos, Hold'em, Omaha, NL/FL/PL.
• Works with your setup — PokerTracker 3, Hold'em Manager, Stacked/Tiled/Cascaded Tables.
• Speeds up your play with hotkeys to bet/call/fold, bet percentages of the pot, or go all-in.
• Automates time-bank, pot-betting, cash-game seating/buy-in, and tournament registration.
• Has you up and running in seconds with an intuitive user interface.

Cash Game Features

• Starting your session is easy with automatic seating, buy-in and waitlist handling
• Set default bet amounts that are there the instant it becomes your turn
• Size your bets with customizable scroll-wheel betting and bet rounding
• Ending your session is easy with TableNinja's smart big blind sit-out and a close-all-tables hotkey
• and much more...

What would you do?#104 - Is there value in this play?

Am I never ahead when betting the river in this spot?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $274.85
BTN: $44.45
SB: $16.00
BB: $98.60 - 44/22/ 67%steal @ 9 hands
UTG: $75.40
UTG+1: $80.20
UTG+2: $42.90
MP1: $108.60
Hero (MP2): $57.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Ad As
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75, 1 fold, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) Kd Td 9s (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BTN folds, BB calls $3.75

Turn: ($13.00) Qh (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7

River: ($27.00) 6h (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???
Are you ever ahead here, or are you value betting?  I know full well that I'm folding a raise, but should I be shutting it down always?  Am I always finding myself behind by the river in this spot with this board?  While there are plenty of hands that have me crushed, he has played this hand so passively, which is why I bet a small 1/3 pot for value.  What would you do?


Click to see results

Hero bets $11, BB calls $11

Final Pot: $49.00
BB shows 9c Qs (two pair, Queens and Nines)
Hero shows Ad As (a pair of Aces)
BB wins $46.55
(Rake: $2.45)

Hand washing fail (non-poker)

I have to give credit to fail blog, but this is some funny stuff:

What would you do? #103 - Weird board facing river shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $64.70
SB: $112.40
BB: $54.45 - 11/10 / 33% ATS / 2% 3bet / infinite aggression factor @ 170 hands
UTG: $50.00
UTG+1: $27.00
UTG+2: $39.50 - 0 prior hands
MP1: $29.00
MP2: $50.00
CO: $34.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Ac Qd
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 4s 6h Td (3 players)
BB bets $3, UTG+2 calls $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($13.75) Ah (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets $10, Hero calls $10, BB requests TIME, BB calls $10

River: ($43.75) Jc (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets $25 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

This is a really crappy spot. I have under-repped my hand, but really? He's pretty sure he's got the goods by river shoving. My hand is a pretty weak bluff catcher in this spot - particularly stuck with a player yet to act.
Hero folds, BB folds

Final Pot: $43.75
UTG+2 wins $41.60
(Rake: $2.15)

Ed Miller's latest post - "What To Do When They Won't Fold"

A quick post to call attention to a poker writer who I have tremendous respect for, Ed Miller.  As a little background, he is the much lauded co-author of two of the premier poker books, Professional No-Limit Hold 'em: Volume I and Small Stakes No Limit Hold'em (available currently in PDF only).  He recently posted an entry on his blog called "What To Do When They Won't Fold," which I feel is well worth my reader's time.  Check it out if you get a moment; it may help you with your game - or it may simply re-affirm your beliefs and actions of what you're already doing.

What would you do? #102 - Turned 2 pair facing river 4x raise

Note that stack sizes are medium / deep.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $22.35
Hero (MP1): $80.15
MP2: $26.45
CO: $103.20 - 18/6 / 11% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.7 aggression factor @ 125 hands
BTN: $88.85
SB: $70.45
BB: $95.15
UTG: $14.75
UTG+1: $43.60

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 7c 8c
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, CO raises to $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $4.25
Pretty well defines his range; he's *NEVER* 3bet in 125 hands of Rush poker... AA, KK in my opinion.

Flop: ($12.75) 8d Qh 2s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($12.75) 7h (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5
Good turn card; gives me middle 2 pair...

River: ($22.75) Ks (2 players)
Hero bets $11, CO raises to $41, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Easy fold?
Hero folds

Final Pot: $44.75
CO wins $42.55
(Rake: $2.20)

Back to Basics: Suited connectors

I'm starting to realize that some of my readers are quite new to poker... or perhaps don't have basics and fundamentals down pat.  In addition to my random strategy posts, I plan on starting a new segment call "Back to Basics."  To most readers, this will be elementary, but I feel it serves good purpose to hammer down fundamentals of pre- and post- flop play.  Perhaps I will learn a thing or two from the comments section, as well.  I can't promise anything, but I do plan on trying to post a new "Back to Basics" every Monday.

As a quick recap of prior posts, readers interested in this series would be best served by reading my thoughts on Poker Tracking / Datamining software, Bankroll Management, Rakeback Agreements, and Pre- / Post- Game Process Parts I, II, III & IV, to have a good footing on terms, assumptions and an understanding of my poker philosophy.

It is my feeling that the reason most losing players are net losers is because they have lost their hand before they've even seen the flop.  I'm not a coach (perhaps I will be in the future :-) ), but I have no doubt that a coach's "easiest" job is taking a losing player and turning him (or her) into a break-even [at minimum] player.  Therefore, the inaugural segment of "Back to Basics" today will focus on pre-flop hand selection (there are many places which talk about pre-flop hand selection; being the lazy blogger that I am, I looked in my bookmark list and could find one of note: Dee's Nutz "Every Decision Counts" entry), particularly focusing on how to play suited connectors.

I've seen far too many losers (henceforth referred to as "donkeys") play suited connectors, no matter the cost.  When facing a 3x raise from any and all positions, they look down and see 7 6 suited or 5 4 suited and think: "I got Ace crackers!  CALL!!!!"  While the donkey mindset is not necessarily always wrong, he is not generally getting the right odds to make that call nor does he understand the how's and why's of the play, thus a leak is sprung from his bankroll / stack.

First: Why do we play suited connectors, and why are they valuable?

• Suited connectors are easier to fold.  A flop can come as good as 8 4 2 (with your suited connectors being 8 7) and you can fold them, depending on the action...  would you be so prone to do that, holding, say AA?  Depending on the action and your opponent, a flop such as described above could be a very scary flop for AA; over-called pocket pairs flopping sets, etc.  However, you can throw away a top pair, no kicker (TPNK) hand away without a second thought to significant action.
• Suited connectors have many possibilities.  You can flop / draw to a non-nut flush.  You can flop / draw to a straight.  You can also flop / draw to a straight flush, where your un-made hand is actually equity-wise ahead of all pairs.  (We will get into equity and figuring out your hand equity in a later Back to Basics segment.)  They also hold the standard non-paired hand properties where you can flop 2 pair, or 3-of-a-kind.
• The point is that with suited connectors (SCs), we have many different options  to potentially (and deceptively) hit the flop, while holding a hand that can be also easily folded.

Second: How much should we pay to play suited connectors?

• The rule of thumb I generally use is that I am not going to pay more than 1/10 of effective stack sizes called the 5/10 rule (for a good explanation, click link), given the correct conditions (described below).  That is not to say that I am calling a raise of 10% stacks right off the bat; I am simply saying that given a multi-way pot... particularly if I *KNOW* my opponents hole cards (i.e. he holds AA, or KK to take an extreme example), I want to know that I can potentially get 10x my initial outlay for my risk of playing these speculative cards.  What I am touching on in the last sentence is the concept of implied odds, another topic I will also get into in later segments of Back to Basics.

It is my view (and many other "experts," not that I'm an expert by any means :-) ) that suited connectors play very nicely in multi-way pots.  What does that mean?  It means that I want to play my suited connectors if there is at least one caller in the pot already: there was a raise and a flat caller, or a limper and you opt to limp as well.  Why?  Assuming there is no squeeze (we're playing lower stakes poker here, so we're not really concerned about a squeeze play, another topic to be addressed in a later Back to Basics post), you are guaranteed at least 2 players in (addition to yourself) to see a flop.  That, my dear reader, is the definition of a multi-way pot.

Personally?  I'm sometimes limping suited connectors when facing a limped pot, sometimes raising suited connectors (usually from in-position), and sometimes folding suited connectors in the situations not favorably described above.  Why?  It adds deception to my game- my raises are not necessarily broadway (AK, KQ, etc.) cards nor pairs; my opponent must put me on a wide range of hands.  For the reasons described above, I'm usually over-calling suited connectors in conditions where I'm facing a raise with a flat caller, or with a smaller percentage of the time (opponent dependent), 3-betting the original raiser (and folding to a 4-bet).

A few quick hand examples of an appropriate overcall with suited connectors to leave you with:
BTW, as an aside, I was debating blocking out the results (because the results are not the point), but will show this hand in its entirety.

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $4.45
UTG: $4.15
UTG+1: $10.08
UTG+2: $5.00
MP1: $2.00
MP2: $3.17
CO: $4.94
Hero (BTN): $7.44
SB: $9.60

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with 7s 8s
UTG calls $0.05, UTG+1 raises to $0.22, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.22, 1 fold, CO calls $0.22, Hero calls $0.22, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.17
I get 1, 2 players calling before me and then UTG comes along for the ride - we see a flop 5-way!  AWESOME for 87s.

Look at my potential winnings (also known as implied odds); anywhere from $2.00 (MP1) who is *NOT* getting good odds to call with whatever hand he has, all the way to $7.44 (me, since UTG+1 has me covered), and some combination in between.

Flop: ($1.17) 8h 7c Qd (5 players)
UTG bets $0.05, UTG+1 raises to $0.90, MP1 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $0.90, UTG calls $0.85
GREAT GREAT FLOP!!!  I know exactly what UTG+1 has - an overpair or AQo... (crappy luck for me if UTG+1 has a set of Queens) based on his bet sizing / raise; I'm going to assume KK or AA though.  I have position and don't want to slow him down one bit.  I also want UTG coming along for a little extra juice.  Moreover, I'm going to be extra careful because the board pairing (non- 8 or 7) could spell disaster for my hand.

Turn: ($3.87) 3c (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $3.87, Hero raises to $6.32 all in, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2.45
The 3c is as safe of a card as I can get.  It is a non-paired turn, meaning that UTG+1 is drawing to 6 board pairing outs (3 Queens left, and 3 3's left) + 2 Kings / Aces (or 3 Aces + 2 Queens) or whatever he has.  I'm actually hoping he has KK or AA because he has 3 less outs cards that way.  I have an 80% edge here, whereas on the turn I maybe had 60-70% equity...  I have no qualms about getting it all in here because he's committed to the pot.

River: ($16.51) Jd (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $16.51
UTG+1 shows Kh Kd (a pair of Kings)
Hero shows 7s 8s (two pair, Eights and Sevens)
Hero wins $15.41
(Rake: $1.10)

---

Another example:
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $33.55
Hero (BTN): $83.65
SB: $57.20
BB: $247.80
UTG: $55.70
UTG+1: $49.50
UTG+2: $34.60
MP1: $17.70
MP2: $123.80

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 7d 9d
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, UTG+2 calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($9.25) As 6s Kh (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $5.50, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, CO folds, Hero folds, BB folds

Final Pot: $9.25
UTG+1 wins $8.80
(Rake: $0.45)

---

Here's an easy fold:
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $22.00
SB: $35.45
BB: $60.20
UTG: $103.95
UTG+1: $43.75
UTG+2: $64.55
Hero (MP1): $82.15
MP2: $31.20
CO: $20.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 6c 7c
8 folds
Terrible position, coupled with no limpers.

Final Pot: $0.50
BB wins $0.50

---

A limped pot where I flop very good:
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $17.20
SB: $20.85
BB: $49.00
UTG: $31.20
UTG+1: $81.85
UTG+2: $19.50
MP1: $32.75
Hero (MP2): $116.55
CO: $53.45

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Td 9d
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($1.75) 8s Qd 6d (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, BB folds, UTG+1 folds
I flopped a diamond flush draw + double belly buster straight draw (Jack or 7).

Final Pot: $2.75
Hero wins $2.65
(Rake: $0.10)

---

Finally, I leave you with a terrible play by my opponent.  Can you spot the errors?
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $49.20
BTN: $26.50
Hero (SB): $106.55
BB: $30.25
UTG: $15.00 - He's an 18/7, BTW; this is not a play I expect from that type of player.
UTG+1: $77.95
UTG+2: $92.40
MP1: $20.30
MP2: $330.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Th Ts
UTG raises to $1.75, 6 folds, Hero raises to $5.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $3.75
I like the raise here, but with $13.25 behind, but when you make the call of my 3-bet, you're essentially committed, no matter the flop.  Not to mention that you only have $15 total to win if you hit your flop perfectly.  This is a CLEAR violation of the 10x rule!

Flop: ($11.50) Js 7h 6c (2 players)
Hero bets $9.50, UTG calls $9.50 all in
You're calling a 3-bet pre-flop and a flop shove (what other move can I make here; $11.50 in the pot and my opponent has $9.50 behind.  It's either all or nothing at this point.

Turn: ($30.50) 4c (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($30.50) Kc (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $30.50
Hero shows Th Ts (a pair of Tens)
UTG shows 8s 6s (a pair of Sixes) - This is a prime example of how NOT to play SCs!!!
Hero wins $29.00
(Rake: $1.50)

Good luck playing your suited connectors.  I hope these series of posts help you.

If you have a good Back to Basics topic that you would like covered, or would like to write a Back to Basics entry yourself, please leave a comment or send me an email (contact information on the right side of this blog).

Another sick one! This time I truly do suck out once the money is all!

This is a standard set over set situation. 

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $50.25
UTG+2: $15.55
MP1: $181.05
MP2: $39.90
CO: $110.60
BTN: $46.55
SB: $26.95
Hero (BB): $100.25
UTG: $30.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 7s 7d
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2, 4 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $8.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $6.50
MP1 calls because I'm assuming he thinks he has implied odds, which he clearly does.

Flop: ($19.25) 8c 3h 7c (2 players)
Hero bets $12.50, MP1 calls $12.50
No way I'm going to get it all in with my mid set, by checking a street.  I need to bet bet bet & hope for a raise here.

Turn: ($44.25) Ac (2 players)
Hero bets $24, MP1 raises to $160.05 all in, Hero calls $55.25 all in
I get my wish; he shoves over me which I happily call.  So it turns out that he has a set of 8's over my 7's.  I don't know; at 50nl, is this ever a fold?  Perhaps folding 33 is possible.  Bummer... until:

River: ($202.75) 7h (2 players - 2 are all in)
NICE SUCKOUT!

Final Pot: $202.75
MP1 shows 8d 8h (a full house, Eights full of Sevens)
Hero shows 7s 7d (four of a kind, Sevens)
Hero wins $199.75
(Rake: $3.00)

... Which is okay, because I got two outted myself on this doozy:
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/664804
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $50.50
UTG+1: $35.05
UTG+2: $38.75
Hero (MP1): $80.45
MP2: $61.10
CO: $57.90
BTN: $50.35
SB: $49.50
BB: $29.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Kc Kd
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, MP2 raises to $6, 4 folds, Hero raises to $15, MP2 calls $9

Flop: ($30.75) Jc Tc 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $18, Hero raises to $65.45 all in, MP2 calls $28.10 all in
Gee, really?  So let's recap: I check raise you all in and yet you still call...  Even if I show up with AcKx, you're still a little bit of an underdog at 47%, which is I guess why you called given the money trapped already in the pot...

Turn: ($122.95) Qh (2 players - 2 are all in)
Even at this point I'm a 36% dog...  but I can't re-suckout for the win...

River: ($122.95) Th (2 players - 2 are all in)

What would you do? #101 - Thoroughly confused...

Note the ~200BB deep stacks.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $32.55
CO: $100.80
BTN: $93.10 - 38/34 / 25% steal / 16.7% 3bet / 1.0 aggression factor @ 29 hands
SB: $176.05
BB: $76.60
Hero (UTG): $94.95
UTG+1: $49.65
UTG+2: $67.75
MP1: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Th Tc
Hero raises to $2, 5 folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 7h 2s 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN raises to $8.50, Hero calls $5.50

Turn: ($21.75) 9d (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($21.75) 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $82.60 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

I think this is a "scared money" fold. I can't put him on a hand that beats me, other than he shoves for 175BBs on the river... With a 17% 3bet, I have to imagine that he's 3betting all pairs, right? His play is very confusing, too. Flop raise, turn check, river shove? 8 6? Set rivered boat? I don't get it. Anyone?
Hero folds

Final Pot: $41.75
BTN wins $39.70
(Rake: $2.05)

What would you do? #100 - Bad board facing river shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $70.80
BB: $50.00
UTG: $16.25
UTG+1: $51.80
UTG+2: $93.80
MP1: $22.40
MP2: $46.65
CO: $52.10 - 18/6 / 0% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.0 aggression factor @ 17 hands
BTN: $42.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah As
4 folds, MP2 raises to $1, CO raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, 2 folds, CO calls $7

Flop: ($23.50) Qd 4d Ks (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($23.50) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $11, CO calls $11

River: ($45.50) 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $30.10 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

So am I a donkey for folding this? In retrospect, there's a bunch of hands I beat - namely AK - but I think there's far more hands that beat me here. Is this a nit fold?

Hero folds

Final Pot: $65.50
CO wins $62.50
(Rake: $3.00)

The defending champion Mookie recap

Well, I'm a little above average chipstack, when BTN who had been raising wide and 3betting liberally decides to craftily call my all in shove with AQo vs. my under pair.  Needless to say, my under pair did not hold up and I was out within 50 some-odd hands.  :-(  I'll get'em next time.

WTF Hand - Sometimes you need to put someone on a hand

In following with a post yesterday, I talked about the power of putting someone on a hand.  As readers of this blog are aware by now, I've become a Rush junkie (or flunky - depending on your perspective).  By now, I think I've pretty much seen it all, and been on both sides of the coin.  I've been set over setted more times than I care to remember, run KK into AA, and had both sides suckout, etc.

The focus, though, is watching out for getting set over setted.  Sometimes, you just *HAVE* to put your opponent on a hand.  The following is a case where the villain *HAS* to put me on a hand, and likely put me on a hand that beats his set.  DISCLAIMER: I know he flopped Jacks full (well, not at the time; I figured he had trip Aces as well), but he should at least give me credit for a good Ace.  There is no need for this guy to stack off to me (although I probably bet him all in anyway):

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $93.65
Hero (CO): $75.95
BTN: $50.60
SB: $85.35
BB: $102.25
UTG: $68.70
UTG+1: $66.30
UTG+2: $55.85
MP1: $88.90

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with As Kc
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) Jc Ah Ad (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB raises to $9.60, Hero calls $6.85
Okay; so he check / raises me, but am I realistically getting off of trips, top kicker here, particularly 150BBs deep?  With his ~3x raise, I can still profitably call here.  I am fairly certain I am ahead, but he could very well have AJ... although I see him on a hand like Ax.  At this point, we have 20BBs in the middle...  Given his zeal for the check / raise flop, my plan is to try and see a showdown cheaply (read: not get stacks in), but proceed cautiously on future streets

Turn: ($22.95) Kd (2 players)
BB bets $16.05, Hero calls $16.05
Best card, but why does he continue to 2/3 pot it?  I understand that we're deep and he wants stacks, but shouldn't he be re-evaluating my hand here?  A A J K hits my range pretty hard core.  He's clearly getting value from what he perceives as I have an Ax hand, where he feels I'm not getting away from it.  Perhaps this isn't so much of a WTF hand after all, but this should be a cautionary tale.  Given the board texture, bottom boats like this are not always the nuts, and so deep stacked, you should chill out a bit...

River: ($55.05) 6s (2 players)
BB bets $74.85 all in, Hero calls $48.55 all in
Again, he didn't really need to do this.  There are quite a few hands that beat him at this point.

Final Pot: $152.15
Hero shows As Kc (a full house, Aces full of Kings)
BB shows Jh Jd (a full house, Jacks full of Aces) - The hand is a cooler, yes, but there was no need to for him to willingly push 150BBs with it.  I think he has to slow down on the turn, which will probably make it harder for me to get stacks (who am I kidding; stacks are going in regardless at that point, but at least he's not the aggressor and getting it in on the wrong side).
Hero wins $149.15
(Rake: $3.00)

Edit: And don't point out that I did the same thing in reverse in yesterday's post.  Yesterday's post is a different situation, where the only hand that beats me at that point are Queens full or Aces full.  Given the way my opponent played the hand, the money didn't go in until the river...  There are plenty of hands that I have crushed with 9's full, where in the hand above, there are quite a few hands that have Jacks full beat: Aces full of Kings, 6's, Jacks, quad Aces, Kings full. 

The Mookie / Dank tonight

FYI - I will be defending my title as Mookie / Dank / Buddy / WTF? champion.  I am going for not one but TWO (2) seats in the BBT Tournament of Champions.  If I win tonight, can I start the ToC with a double stack ;-)?

For anyone interested, the password as always is "vegas1" and it starts at 10:00PM sharp.  $10+1 buy in, as always.

What would you do? #99 - Holding an overpair to a river shove

A quick one from my "stepping down in stakes" phase. Note that this is a Rush hand at $25NL.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $25.44
SB: $24.75
BB: $16.76
UTG: $49.84
UTG+1: $25.00
UTG+2: $17.40
MP1: $61.26
MP2: $20.68
CO: $51.71 - 10/9 23% steal / 3.6% 3bet / 3.7 aggression factor @344 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Qs Qd
5 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.75, 2 folds, CO requests TIME, CO raises to $4.75, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($9.85) 7d 4c 7s (2 players)
CO bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($21.85) 8h (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($21.85) Ts (2 players)
CO bets $21.85, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $14.69 all in

Final Pot: $51.23
Hero shows Qs Qd (two pair, Queens and Sevens)
CO shows Jh Kd (a pair of Sevens)
Hero wins $48.67
(Rake: $2.56)

I got Teddy KGB'ed last night!

Last night was a very bad night for me; I dusted off around 8 buy ins in my late session.  It did not feel good - particularly because I had been running and playing so well.  Admittedly, it should have been a lot worse, but I was able to suckout on more than one occasion, getting my money in bad.  On more than one occasion (in addition to below) I was boat-over-boated.  I was also flush-over-flushed.  I think I will take tonight off, because I know the set over sets are coming...  Anyway, the hand below was the titled hand of note:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $163.50
UTG: $47.35
UTG+1: $134.25
UTG+2: $57.60
MP1: $36.50
MP2: $75.70
CO: $22.50
BTN: $59.60
Hero (SB): $62.45

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah 9d
7 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($5.00) 9s Qd 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: ($5.00) Ad (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($5.00) 3s (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BB raises to $20, Hero raises to $35.50, BB raises to $51, Hero raises to $59.95 all in, BB calls $8.95

Final Pot: $124.90
BB shows Ac As (a full house, Aces full of Nines)
Hero shows Ah 9d (a full house, Nines full of Aces)
BB wins $121.90
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #98 - Bottom boat facing modest river bet

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $54.15
BB: $102.50
UTG: $283.25
UTG+1: $99.00
UTG+2: $221.40
MP1: $72.05
Hero (MP2): $147.50 - 41/35 / 50% steal / 36%(!!!) 3bet @ 34 hands
CO: $100.00
BTN: $152.30

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with 5d 6d
4 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) Th Ks 6s (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5

Turn: ($18.50) Kd (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $9, Hero calls $9

River: ($36.50) Kc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $25, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $25

Final Pot: $86.50
Hero shows 5d 6d (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
CO shows Qd As (three of a kind, Kings)
Hero wins $83.50
(Rake: $3.00)

Indestructo-man - A smile to your day

Again, deviating from the standard fare of this blog, I saw this video and *HAD* to post it. Friggin HIL-AR-I-OUS!!!!




I'm assuming this is a fake, but it's very funny. Talk about a bad day... Just when he thinks it's over, POW! The car runs him over.

The power of accurately putting your opponent on a hand

Every once in awhile, you can put your opponent on exactly 2 cards.  If you can do that, you're playing a game with complete information where your opponent does not generally have the same information.  You have a huge advantage, because your opponent is playing his cards face up.  When you are in this position, take a gamble - you may pay incorrect pot odds, but your implied odds are HUGE.

Example:

This guy was a 14/4 over 473 hands with a 6% steal, with a very very low aggression factor.  He's got a legitimate hand...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/662508
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $47.25
UTG+1: $172.85
UTG+2: $19.65
MP1: $51.35
MP2: $35.05
CO: $65.50
BTN: $44.40
Hero (SB): $63.75
BB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 2d 3d
6 folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks
Limped button?  32s is folding here under any raised circumstances, but I'll see a 1/2 price flop...

Flop: ($1.50) Qc 7s 4c (3 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BB folds, BTN calls $1.50
I cbet here with the expectation that he will fold everything in his range but hands that match the board.  Either he has a solid club draw, sets or AQ.  I don't think this type of player is floating at all.  He has a clearly defined range - with all but AA & KK limping.

At this point, I realize that my flop lead is dead in the water; I plan to check / fold just about everything.  I am clearly beat.

Turn: ($4.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
What was I saying about check / folding?  I know what this guy has.  There's $40 remaining, and I'm now open-ended.

Talk about a nice card.  I can continue with the hand, and represent that I'm drawing to clubs.  At this point, I'm pretty certain that he has AQ and is protecting his TPTK.  I hope for a non-club A or 6 with the sole reason being that if a club pops on the river, he will be scared and fold.

River: ($9.50) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $59.25 all in, BTN calls $39.90 all in
This is the *PERFECT CARD*!!!!  I know that if he has AQ, he's not folding any hand.  Given his aggression factor, if I pot bet, he's going to call.  I don't envision him ever raising.  How do I get paid?  Either he's got what I think he does or he doesn't.  Whatever I bet he's calling.  Shove seems to be the most viable action.  It works!  Note the overbet for value line; $10 pot and I push $60.

Final Pot: $89.30
BTN mucks Qs As
Hero shows 2d 3d (a straight, Five high)
Hero wins $86.30
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #97 - Terrible turn card facing shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $100.00
UTG: $170.80 - 67/67/ 100% steal @ 3 hands with infinite aggression factor
UTG+1: $100.00
UTG+2: $83.25
MP1: $266.25
MP2: $220.30
CO: $125.65
Hero (BTN): $167.00
SB: $112.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Jd Jh
UTG raises to $3.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, UTG calls $8.50

Flop: ($25.50) 8c 2s 4c (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $15, UTG raises to $37, Hero calls $22

Turn: ($99.50) Kc (2 players)
UTG bets $121.80 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

I guess the question really is am I behind the whole way?  3 hands is not a sample size; should I be folding to his flop raise?
Hero folds

Final Pot: $99.50
UTG wins $96.50
(Rake: $3.00)

There's no such thing as a free lunch.... HA! (no poker content)

I'm going to deviate from the intent of this blog for a post.  I'm entitled to do that every once in awhile (it's my blog & I do what I want to...).  Anyone that knows me in person knows that I'm cheap when it comes to my personal finances.  I want the very most for the very least.  I'm willing to put in the time to shop around and get what I want; if you've been reading this blog long enough, you've seen posts about deals I've found... generally poker-related, but good deals nevertheless.  Anyway, long story short: I literally got a free meal last night, without even asking for it!

First: a quick shout out to the guys at South Street Steaks, where I received my free meal.  Now the story, which isn't much of a story:

Just about the one good thing coming from Philadelphia is their cheese steaks.  They suck at just about everything else.  Sorry Riggstad, but it's true!  They have a loser of a World Series team.  They have a laughable basketball team.  Finally, the city just kinda SUCKS!  There is one other good thing, the show "Always Sunny in Philadelphia"... and that's not even filmed in Philadelphia (don't know; just made that up!), but I digress.

Well, back to my original point.  I I love their cheese steaks, and there's a place about 5 miles from my house who sells fairly authentic hoagies (I think that's what they call 'em) / steaks.  I get the kidides to bed, checking in on the BBT5 Invitational Event #3 (great first table, BTW: cmitch, josie, julius goat, [I think] jjrok and a few other notables I can't remember at the moment), and decide to drive out to get me some vittles.

Now, the wife was perfectly willing to make some Sunday leftovers from the week, but I just wasn't feeling it.  I was motivated to get out and get some hot fresh food.  Well, I get there, and they're "closed."  It's 8:00PM, and they claim they're out of meat.  How does a CHEESE STEAK PLACE run out of meat?  Whatever the reason, they ran out, though.  So I say that I drove "all the way out here," and they're all "sorry, poor planning."  However, they offer me a heart-attack-on-a-hoagie roll called the "Steel City" with bacon, which contains "(french fries line the roll, w/ fried onions & choice of cheese)" and the obvious, bacon (I know; we keep Kosher in the house, but I still like tasty yummy BACON from my non-Kosher days; I keep a see-food diet out of the house.).  They told me they made it by accident, and were going to throw it out, but I could have it as compensation for the drive.  Well, you don't have to ask me twice!  I took that, and a bag of their fries and got outta dodge, free of charge.  I get home and open it - this thing is filled with tons of meat and other good stuff.  It was awesome (note to self: next time: subtract the bacon - it was just too much)!  Now, I sit here, stuffed to the gills, writing this post, checking in on the final 10 at the BBT, railing Josie, Dr. Chako, and Astin, trying to digest the meat and other crap.  So the point of this rambling story is, I did, indeed get a freeby, and South Street Steaks gained a customer for life (not as if they didn't have one already).

Thanks, SSS!

What would you do?#115 - Facing big 3bet pre-flop with AKs

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $47.75
BTN: $174.75
SB: $24.50
BB: $80.65
UTG: $68.05
Hero (UTG+1): $60.85
UTG+2: $75.05
MP1: $46.45
MP2: $183.75 - 25/25 @ 4 hands... No other information.

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Ah Kh
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $18, 4 folds, Hero requests TIME, 1 fold
WTF?  Is this stupid?  I figure, at minimum, I'm 50/50 with the raiser - but going from $1.75 to $18?!?!??!!?  WWYD?

Final Pot: $4.25
MP2 wins $4.25

What would you do?#114 - Four flush rivered board facing overbet shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $69.95
MP2: $113.10
Hero (CO): $67.40
BTN: $49.60
SB: $67.00 - 29/29/ - ATS / 33.3 3BET / inf AF @ 7 hands
BB: $50.65
UTG: $39.20
UTG+1: $85.50
UTG+2: $23.45

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 4s Ad
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.00) As Ks 8s (2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
Trying to manage the pot size here.

Turn: ($9.00) 3d (2 players)
SB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50
Again, trying to manage the pot size here.  Ideally, I want a cheap showdown.

River: ($20.00) 6s (2 players)
SB bets $57.25 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Another bluff catcher hand. 3 streets of betting and the 4th spade comes out. The problem here is the SB overbet shoving. Either he's got the Qs or air. What hands can ever call him here other than the Qs? Am I a wimp for not looking him up? Are you calling here?
Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

Final Pot: $20.00
SB wins $19.00
(Rake: $1.00)