Tuesday, May 25, 2010

What would you do?#111 - Facing flop autoshove against very aggro opponent

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $62.45
UTG: $50.75
UTG+1: $59.30
UTG+2: $14.20
MP1: $51.60
MP2: $29.35
CO: $63.65 - 100/100/ 100% steal / 100% 3bet / inf aggression / 2 hands
BTN: $74.80
Hero (SB): $53.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 7d Ah
5 folds, CO raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, CO raises to $15.50, Hero calls $10.50

Flop: ($31.50) 8s 9c Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $48.15 all in, Hero ???

Click to see results

I think this is a really dangerous player. If he doesn't show up with 100% aggression pre-flop, I'm tossing this away without a second thought. In fact, I'm not even calling pre-flop. His CO raise is suspect, and his 4bet is suspect. He's either playing bully or has a monster. I thought long and hard about making this call or passively tossing it and came to the following thought:
He's shoving pairs of Jacks and all sets. He's also shoving much more air, because there's no reason to shove here. Not a ton of a "typical" 4bet range smacked this flop. If he has KK, QQ, so be it, but I'm not drawing completely dead (an overcard and a 6 pretty much assure me to the nuts; 7 outs minimum.

As it turns out, I'm ahead 60/40.

Hero calls $37.90 all in

Turn: ($107.30) 3d (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($107.30) 3c (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $107.30
CO shows Kh Qh (a pair of Threes)
Hero shows 7d Ah (a pair of Threes)
Hero wins $104.30
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. fold.

    You have to assume you're behind right now. You have 8 eights to the straight, and maybe three ace outs.

    That's calling all in with less than a 50% chance of winning.

    Plus, I want to see more than three hands of his play.

  2. Good call. I agree his range is super wide.

    However, I don't understand why you don't just ship it in preflop. You have a very difficult hand to play post flop out of position. If you think he is full of shit that often, just ship the A hi for value.

  3. Between this hand and the prior hand, I've had similar comments, in that my 3bets are getting 4 bet. This is somewhat of a rarity in Full Ring, but I see it semi-often in Rush poker.

    To answer why I don't 6bet ship, I'm afraid of my opponent's call. I want to be able to get away from the hand if I feel the flop hit my opponent. Like yesterday's hand, I feel like I'm marginally ahead, but correctly ahead, pre-flop. A 60/40 "flip" is not what I'm going after. I want to see a flop first before getting it all in. That way I have a greatly reduced likelihood of my opponent hitting their draw vs. my hand. As it turns out for this hand, I'm 60/40 on the flop anyway... but I can't control that fact.

  4. Should we assume all your blogs going forward are RUSH?

    2 hands = 100% aggression? Is this a good sample size?

    lucky your call with 2-1 pot odds when you thought you're about 2-1 for even money was wrong and you were ahead!

    Typically I don't condone flipping for even money, unless there's some good chance you're ahead.. and you were right!

  5. "Should we assume all your blogs going forward are RUSH?"
    Yes - they've been Rush for a long time now. I've been strictly sticking to Rush for the past few months.

    "2 hands = 100% aggression? Is this a good sample size"
    The thing with his stats that stuck out is that he had 100% across the board. His stats were pegged.

    "Typically I don't condone flipping for even money, unless there's some good chance you're ahead.. and you were right!?"
    Totally agree - I hate flipping for anything less than 75/25 - and these days, 75/25 is an automatic loss for me too...


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