Tuesday, May 4, 2010

What would you do? #98 - Bottom boat facing modest river bet

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $54.15
BB: $102.50
UTG: $283.25
UTG+1: $99.00
UTG+2: $221.40
MP1: $72.05
Hero (MP2): $147.50 - 41/35 / 50% steal / 36%(!!!) 3bet @ 34 hands
CO: $100.00

BTN: $152.30

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with 5d 6d
4 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) Th Ks 6s (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5

Turn: ($18.50) Kd (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $9, Hero calls $9

River: ($36.50) Kc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $25, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero calls $25

Final Pot: $86.50
Hero shows 5d 6d (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
CO shows Qd As (three of a kind, Kings)
Hero wins $83.50
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. Please explain your turn/river logic here, Meister. I suspect you believe the only hand that bets the river like this is Kx, which he rarely has, but QJ and missed flush draws likely fire as well.

    77-99 would be happy to get to showdown and are probably not 2/3 potting the river, if betting at all. The question is if 10x, JJ and QQ play the hand this way?

    While it turned out to be a great call, I'm just worried whether calling this light is exploitative.

  2. Quick note: I assigned the stats to me, not CO; my mistake.

    Back to the thought process: Given how aggro this guy is, I'm assuming he's going to 3bet all pairs. I'm also assuming he has a range a mile wide. I'm obviously not too happy with his flop flat, but I am absolutely not letting him push me off a hand with lots of showdown value against his range.

    On the turn, when the 2nd K comes out, I'm fairly certain he does not have a K, which leads me to be scared of a Tx hand. I don't know that he's betting big on the river with a Tx hand on a 3 king board like this - I feel like the majority of players are checking behind with anything but 4 of a kind or AA (I could easily show up with QQ, JJ from a MP2 raise). If he really wants a call and has quads, I think he's betting more like half pot, or overpot.


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