Monday, May 3, 2010

The power of accurately putting your opponent on a hand

Every once in awhile, you can put your opponent on exactly 2 cards.  If you can do that, you're playing a game with complete information where your opponent does not generally have the same information.  You have a huge advantage, because your opponent is playing his cards face up.  When you are in this position, take a gamble - you may pay incorrect pot odds, but your implied odds are HUGE.


This guy was a 14/4 over 473 hands with a 6% steal, with a very very low aggression factor.  He's got a legitimate hand...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG: $47.25
UTG+1: $172.85
UTG+2: $19.65
MP1: $51.35
MP2: $35.05
CO: $65.50
BTN: $44.40
Hero (SB): $63.75
BB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 2d 3d
6 folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks
Limped button?  32s is folding here under any raised circumstances, but I'll see a 1/2 price flop...

Flop: ($1.50) Qc 7s 4c (3 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BB folds, BTN calls $1.50
I cbet here with the expectation that he will fold everything in his range but hands that match the board.  Either he has a solid club draw, sets or AQ.  I don't think this type of player is floating at all.  He has a clearly defined range - with all but AA & KK limping.

At this point, I realize that my flop lead is dead in the water; I plan to check / fold just about everything.  I am clearly beat.

Turn: ($4.50) 5h (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
What was I saying about check / folding?  I know what this guy has.  There's $40 remaining, and I'm now open-ended.

Talk about a nice card.  I can continue with the hand, and represent that I'm drawing to clubs.  At this point, I'm pretty certain that he has AQ and is protecting his TPTK.  I hope for a non-club A or 6 with the sole reason being that if a club pops on the river, he will be scared and fold.

River: ($9.50) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $59.25 all in, BTN calls $39.90 all in
This is the *PERFECT CARD*!!!!  I know that if he has AQ, he's not folding any hand.  Given his aggression factor, if I pot bet, he's going to call.  I don't envision him ever raising.  How do I get paid?  Either he's got what I think he does or he doesn't.  Whatever I bet he's calling.  Shove seems to be the most viable action.  It works!  Note the overbet for value line; $10 pot and I push $60.

Final Pot: $89.30
BTN mucks Qs As
Hero shows 2d 3d (a straight, Five high)
Hero wins $86.30
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. Interesting use of the overbet for value.

    If a club popped off on the river, I bet you could have bet pot or a bit more and gotten a fold enough to make it quite profitable too.

    So you actually had a lot more outs than you thought.

  2. Sean-

    Yeah, I thought about that too, but clearly, a non club Ace would be the "perfect" card in this spot when I'm going for stacking.

    I'm pretty sure he's calling here because he's assuming we're at least splitting. Am I really making this move with anything less than a set or Aces up? If I really have the nuts, am I over betting for value (OBV) or am I potting it / "a bet he thinks I think he would call"?

  3. I do like the OBV here since it only has to be called 1/4 of the time to equal a $10 lead, since he is always calling a po-size river bet, given your read. I also like your assessment that he is never raising you without the nuts on the river making it impossible to get stacks in. It should be noted that he will hero call you with less than the nuts; however, with hands like sets, top two pair and maybe even AK, which is reasonable to assume that he has that at least once for every 4 times.


Blog Archive