Thursday, May 6, 2010

What would you do? #100 - Bad board facing river shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $70.80
BB: $50.00
UTG: $16.25
UTG+1: $51.80
UTG+2: $93.80
MP1: $22.40
MP2: $46.65
CO: $52.10 - 18/6 / 0% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.0 aggression factor @ 17 hands
BTN: $42.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah As
4 folds, MP2 raises to $1, CO raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, 2 folds, CO calls $7

Flop: ($23.50) Qd 4d Ks (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($23.50) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $11, CO calls $11

River: ($45.50) 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $30.10 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Click to see results

So am I a donkey for folding this? In retrospect, there's a bunch of hands I beat - namely AK - but I think there's far more hands that beat me here. Is this a nit fold?

Hero folds

Final Pot: $65.50
CO wins $62.50
(Rake: $3.00)


  1. Just try to get it on the flop. You made him commit 20% of his stack. If he hit with QQ or KK, so be it.

    As played, yes you are a nit. Get it in. You basically asked him to turn his bad hands into bluffs by betting $10 into $45 (yes, I know he only has $30 left)

  2. In retrospect, I agree. It's $20 more on top, and I think I may be correct to make the call more often than that. I made the fold based on his ABC playing style, but in limited 17 hands of history.

  3. Why 4b w/o leading the flop? I'm assuming with most anyone's 4b range, this flop connects (QQ+, AK+) unless you think villain would 4b JJ and give up here.

    Turn lead appears weak for a 4b pot imo, and villain is getting 3:1 for a call in a large pot.

    Riv: $10 into $40? If you were slow playing the flop, and 1/2 pot donk the turn, I'd expect a large riv bet for value anyway.

    I think you need to bet the flop hard, and then reevaluate. If he calls flop bet I'd place him on QQ or AK thinking he'd ship KK pre. KQ is a cooler, w/e.

  4. FNB: I think I had multiple problems with this hand.

    A. Look at my PF 5bet: I think a more "proper" raise should have been around $15.

    B. What types of hands can I put an 18/6 who is flatting to a 5bet on? I'm assuming his range is AK, KK, QQ, JJ... given the size of my 5bet, probably a few more PPs maybe to 99.

    C. I think I need to be calling the $20 raise on the river to win $80 because AA is going to be good there better than 1 in 4.

    Poorly played hand by me, no doubt.

  5. 17 hands is just not enough to peg him as that tight. I'd be more inclined to think he is a donk, since you haven't played with him. Snap off that donk's shove w/ KJ.

  6. The 5b sizing is fine imo, unless you're looking to set up a more favorable SPR for an overpair scenario. If he'll call $11 he'll call $15.

    Still haven't looked at the results yet either, but if I'm putting a 5b out there, you can be certain I'm firing heavy on the flop - and I'm a nit! ;)

  7. As it played out, my initial reaction is a crying call.

    However, my gut says he has you beat. He couldve called the turn with QQ KK AK AQ KQ KJ spades, approx 50/50 on hands that beat you but most of these that you beat probably just call the river.

    You played it somewhat weak so i think you're stuck calling with 3-1 odds and his bluff percentage higher than it would be if you played it differently.


  8. 4-bet sizing is fine, $15/call on the flop, just shove the river as played


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