What would you do? #200 - Paired board + 3flush to strong river bet

Been busy with work lately; sorry for the lack of posts.  As a result, I've been playing Rush quite a bit.  Here's a hand for you:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $40.00
CO: $119.25 - 11/8/4.4% 3bet/ 21 %steal / 1.9AF @ 200 hands
BTN: $43.25
SB: $221.25
BB: $126.75
Hero (UTG): $355.75
UTG+1: $167.95
UTG+2: $75.70
MP1: $49.15

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Qd Qh
Hero raises to $3, 4 folds, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 8c 5c Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises to $14, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($35.50) 6d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($35.50) Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $26, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds
No idea about this one. I'm beating bluffs, clearly. Is this guy calling PF with Tx? I don't think so. Is he calling with AKc or some such combo? Perhaps. It just feels much more like a value bet coming from this guy. Check raise the flop with 2 overs + flush draw. Check through the turn for a freebie. Yada yada yada...

Final Pot: $35.50
CO wins $33.75
(Rake: $1.75)

What would you do? #199 - Pocket Aces facing strong action

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $132.95 - 13 / 10 / 4.1% 3bet / 19% steal / 3.4AF @ 896 hands
BB: $100.00
UTG: $82.05
UTG+1: $70.10
UTG+2: $194.75
Hero (MP1): $100.50
MP2: $131.45
CO: $111.90
BTN: $108.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Ac As
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.00) 8d Kc 2h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($14.00) 3h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $9, SB raises to $22, Hero calls $13
Baluga Theorem?

River: ($58.00) Qs (2 players)
SB bets $45, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
Simple read; do you make the call here?


Click to see results

Hero calls $45
I'm going through a spell where I just can't get my big hands to stick.  It's a bad state to be in; I never know whether I'm folding the best hand because I'm just being run over, or they're actually out-flopping me.  As is, it seems as though every time I make the hero call, I'm shown the nuts, so WTF?!?!?!?

Final Pot: $148.00
SB shows 2c 2s (three of a kind, Twos)
Hero mucks Ac As
SB wins $145.00
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #198 - Deep stacked with Kings up

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $214.80 - 33/23 / 5.3% 3bet / 50%steal / 3.1 AF @ 149 hands - this is his 4th raise in a row, and he's taken it down each time.
MP1: $182.80
MP2: $90.65
CO: $100.00
Hero (BTN): $235.60
SB: $98.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $200.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Kh Kc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $11, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $8

Flop: ($23.50) 5d 5h 9h (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $23.50, Hero calls $23.50

Turn: ($70.50) 3h (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $180.30 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $180.30
This is a player who is capable of a lot of things.  Moreover, he's getting huge implied odds to make a call with just about any two cards.  What I'm hugely concerned with is the random 5's that he may hold.  That said, I don't think I can lay an overpair... any overpair... down vs. this player.

River: ($431.10) Qd (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $431.10
UTG+1 shows 9s Js (two pair, Nines and Fives)
Hero shows Kh Kc (two pair, Kings and Fives)
Hero wins $428.10
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #197 - Aces facing turn shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $104.00
UTG: $35.00
UTG+1: $98.30 - 18/6 / 0% 3bet / 15% steal / 1.4 AF / 142 hands
UTG+2: $99.00
MP1: $40.00
Hero (MP2): $101.95
CO: $116.75
BTN: $133.90
SB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ah Ac
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $9, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $7

Flop: ($19.50) Qh 9s Ks (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $19.50, Hero calls $19.50

Turn: ($58.50) Td (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $69.80 all in, Hero folds
He has to have JJ, QQ or KK.  Crappy 3bet on my part, but he raised so small that raising to $10 would have looked funny.

Final Pot: $58.50
UTG+1 wins $55.60
(Rake: $2.90)

What would you do? #196 - Flopped trips check raised on the turn

Still running terrabad, though I'm playing FAR better.  Results don't show it, of course.  I keep running into suckouts, variance, etc.  Still down 10+ buy-ins in expected value...

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $124.60
UTG+1: $77.90
MP1: $119.50
MP2: $135.50
CO: $139.25 - 11/8 / 2.4%3bet / 22% steal / 2.3 AF
BTN: $122.00
SB: $156.20 - 16/9/2.3%3bet / 25% steal / 1.9 AF
BB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ad Qd
Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, CO raises to $9, 1 fold, SB calls $8.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($28.00) 9c Qh Qc (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
I fully expect CO to lead here, ready to c/r him.  Fail!

Turn: ($28.00) 5c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $25, CO calls $25, SB raises to $128, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

I lead out here to charge for the 4th club; when I get check / raised all in, I'm in a quandry...  I have to be beat, right?


Click to see results

Hero folds, CO raises to $130.25 all in, SB calls $2.25

River: ($313.50) 5h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $313.50
CO shows Kc Ac (a flush, Ace high)
SB shows 4c 3c (a flush, Queen high)
CO wins $310.50
(Rake: $3.00)

WBCOOP 2010

I will be partaking, will you?

Changin' it up for a change?

After I busted out in the Mookie (last out of 5 total, LDO), I decided to try my hand at another game.  A little background: I know nothing about any other games than NLHE / PLHE.  I'd venture to say that I've played stud before; played draw before, etc., but I am far more comfortable with Hold'em.

Well, I wasn't ready to pack it in for the evening; my wife hosted Majong - and was still hosting- but I didn't quite feel like hitting the tables again (I've been running terrabad; down 10 buy-ins in EV this month), and had just eeked out a profit of $13 against an EV expected $180.  I decided to check out a game that would be similar in style, but far different in play - Stud Hi.  All I can say is "wow."  Obviously, at this level, there isn't very fierce competition (I played the lowest of the low, $0.05/$0.10), but the players were terrible, and I actually had a good time.  I felt like I had some semblance of knowing what I'm doing; I was able to play draws and hands fairly well.  I was able to read other players, etc.  It was an interesting game, without a doubt.

I wound up winning $3.50 in the 40-some-odd hands that I played; a decent run for those stakes, I'd estimate.  I don't know that I'm ready to become a stud player, but it's nice to know that this game is here for a nice past-time.

Understand Variance and Conquer It

Some of you may have heard me whining and moaning about a downswing that I recently experienced during the first week of October. After having a red hot September, where I received 7+ hours of formal coaching, I felt I was unstoppable. I had profited more than 120 buy-ins and comfortably moved up from $6+.50 6max SNGs to $12 6max SNGs. Note: For those that don't know me, I have grinded higher stakes in full ring SNGs in the past with good success, but recently fell in love with 6 max SNGs. So I decided to begin my quest and work my way up the ladder. Here is a picture of my graph for September 2010.

So here I am trucking along playing my optimal amount of tables [5], using my preferable tracking software [HEM], reviewing my ICM/bubble spots after each session [SNGWiz] when suddenly I started running pretty cold. It's not that I wasn't seeing good cards or making inexploitable shoves [plays where I stand to win from my opponents regardless of whether they knew what my cards were], but rather I just kept losing. Was I getting it in bad more frequently? No not really. There were obviously times where I got it in bad, but I couldn't consider it a leak; just a cooler or standard stack-off with a strong hand in a scenario where I'm not folding based on my assessment of the villain. So other than losing a lot while getting it good or bad, what could my 25+ buy-in downswing in 4 days be attributed to? Was I pushing small edges? Was I shoving too light? Was I folding too strong? Still nothing that I could come up with other than the fact that my "inexploitable shoves/plays" were costing me lots of money. So for the first time, I was experiencing a period of time where the amount of money you expect to win [EV] and the actual amount won were quite far apart. By definition you can never earn more than you expect to win, since you will get sucked out on from time to time.

However, where SNGs and cash games differ is the chip equity (ICM) model. In a cash game setting, every chip is worth the denomination written on the chip. In a SNG every chip gained is worth less and less and every chip lost is worth more and more based on the simple concept that if you win all of the chips, you do not win all of the money in the prize pool. This holds true until all players have reached the money in which chips are then fixed in value. So if I were to learn that you, as a cash game player, were expected to win $500 and you only won $300 for a given period of time, I could easily say, "Well we both know that you're running bad, but you're getting it in good so keep it up."

It isn't that easy to quantify such statements in a SNG. You see if I lose my buy-in in a 6 max SNG than I'm down 1 buy-in. But had I not lost that buy-in in whatever fashion that I busted out with, the chances of winning 3.5 buy-ins [1st place] or 2.5 buy-ins [2nd place] sky-rocket. So as you can tell this downswing of around 25 buy-ins was terribly misleading. If you were to arbitrarily use my overall in the money % average [40%] and assume that my position finished for all of these assumed lost buy-ins was normalized, meaning I finished first 21% of the time and finished 2nd 19%, than you'd see that my effective downswing was a category 5 at 43 buy-ins. If anyone is interested in seeing my calculations, feel free to let me know in the comments and I'll amend this article to include them.

Here is a picture so you can see the disparity between what I should have won [red line] and what I actually won [green line].

Keep in mind that this doesn't factor in my adjustment to 43 buy-ins, but resembles a pretty gross looking tea-cup regardless. For those of you that are familiar with technical analysis of stock markets you may know that this type of trend [cup and handle] frequently occurs before a stock is ready to take off. Let's hope this is a sign for my results to come. Stakers where are you?

The past 10 days was a period of time that we've all experienced where we say to ourselves "why is this happening to me?" Variance can do some awful things to our confidence and play. It can make you lose value in spots where you would normally bet, it can cause you to give free cards when you would otherwise charge opponents for draws or it may make you so disgusted by your results that you will simply lose that fire that you once had. Variance can cause you to re-evaluate everything that you know to be true and make it seem like everyone else has it all figured out. It can even make you begin to question the professional advice that you've heavily invested time and money in. During this reverse wind fall, I realized that several things were happening to me:

1) I was winning less than expected with +ev hands [hands with showdown value and correct reads]
2) I was winning less than expected with +ev plays [proper exploitation of the bubble and stack sizes]
3) I was losing motivation to play

1) & 2) above will gravitate back to the mean and in the end I will earn the positive equity which comes from each. It will just require a lot of trials and tribulations that the mind will have to endure prior to doing so. 3) on the other hand will not. That is the only element that I have control over and I [we] must be able to take emotion out of the equation and not attempt to escape variance. It took me about 100 SNGs and nearly 8 hours of play to reverse the damage that my bankroll endured during the the week leading up to 10/10/10. However, having been through such an experience I think that I'm better prepared to handle the inevitable "next time". After all am I going to quit just because I went on bad downswing? Never.

More overbet for value hands... A hand gone wild

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $100.05
MP2: $188.00
CO: $170.95
BTN: $120.45 - 16/13/6.0% 3bet / 34% steal (HUH?) / 2.7AF @ 1.2K hands
Hero (SB): $165.00
BB: $129.80
UTG: $120.80

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with As 3s
5 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $10, 1 fold, BTN requests TIME, BTN raises to $23, Hero calls $13
Player specific; he's raising about 50% of the time from the BTN and 39% from the SB.  I opt to 3bet him, fairly sure that I'm ahead of his range.  He 4bets me, which I perceive as weak.  I think he's angling to take this down immediately.

Flop: ($47.00) 2s Kd Ac (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
I check the flop because the pot is already large and I don't want to find myself in a situation where he raises me all in.  If he has an Ace, his Ace is almost 100% better than mine, but I'm not so sure he even hit the flop here.

Turn: ($47.00) 5s (2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN requests TIME, BTN calls $30
Now I'm 100% sure I'm ahead of him.  However, he still likes his hand.  He's not 4betting PF with a hand like 22...  He could have KK, but I *HIGHLY* doubt it.  Likely, he has a good King or less likely a decent Ace.

His flat has me in a quandary.

River: ($107.00) 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $112 all in, BTN calls $67.45 all in
The 5 pairing the board is the best thing I could have hoped for.  If he has an Ace, we split.  (AQ and below are counterfeited by the K kicker).  If he truly likes his King, he's going to call.  I'm actually praying for a fold because I think it more likely that he has a decent Ace than a good King.

Final Pot: $241.90
BTN mucks 8h Kh - LOL!
Hero shows As 3s (two pair, Aces and Fives)
Hero wins $238.90
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #195 - Missed value?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $118.85
UTG+2: $95.05
MP1: $190.35
MP2: $112.70 - 21/14 / 0% steal / 11.1% 3bet / 4.0 AF / 100 cbet flop / 28 hands
CO: $91.50
BTN: $35.00
SB: $55.15
Hero (BB): $196.15
UTG: $51.95

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with As Ks
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50) Qs 8c Kd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
I don't think he has two pair; he'd lead here.

Turn: ($22.50) 8d (2 players)
Hero bets $13, MP2 calls $13
I'm hating this hand.  I don't know a ton about this player, and he's flatted my 3bet IP.  He's also called my turn bet on the bricked 8's.

River: ($48.50) 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
I had planned to value bet the river, but the only draw (JT) got there.  Should I be leading the river here?  Obviously, given the results, the "perfect play" is to bet small, $10-15.  I think, at the time, I'm looking for a check / raise or a check / call, but don't get either.

Is it a mistake not to be leading?

Final Pot: $48.50
MP2 mucks Jh Qc
Hero shows As Ks (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Hero wins $46.10
(Rake: $2.40)

Nobody's perfect

What a disaster...  I've been running poorly this month.  I'm on travel for work in Hood River, Oregon - my hours are slightly off, coupled with me being sick makes for a bad recipe for poker playing.  However, me being me, I'm driven to get that damn Black Card from FT.  It's been a challenge putting in the hands, but I'm somehow managing.

Anyway, I put up a few posts in the past month regarding 4 betting and squeezing that I'm running into at the 100NL level, and I've been able to fairly well navigate the pitfalls and showing a nice profit by exploiting these plays.  However, I want to share a play with you where I miserably fail at considering what my opponent considers me to have.  I post it up here not only to publicly shame myself into never doing this again, but I also felt it was somewhat interesting.  I've definitely been thinking about it since it happened.

He has a 7.3% 3bet with an 8% squeeze over 1K hands...

I over-think his capability for giving me credit in this spot...  I think, due to the dead money, even if he considers me to have a pair, he still shows a profit being very likely to be a 50/50 flip.  He proves to be a lot better than 50/50 (70/30 to be exact).

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $103.00
Hero (BTN): $102.50
SB: $113.80
BB: $35.00
UTG: $137.10
UTG+1: $35.00
MP: $91.50

UTG+1 posts a big blind ($1)

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero is BTN with As 5s
UTG raises to $4.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, SB requests TIME, SB raises to $20,
I mostly expected my 8% squeezing friend to squeeze in this spot.  I should like to 3bet in this spot; I have position and initiative.  However, I can take less of a risk by letting my friend 3bet for me...  Since he folds out everyone except me, I opt to shove over him.

4 folds, Hero raises to $102.50 all in, SB requests TIME, SB calls $82.50
What I fail to consider is the fact that he doesn't see himself as a squeezer.  Therefore, he does not expect me to ever make this move on him - he would more expect me to 3bet prior to action getting to him.  Therefore, he can mostly discount AA, KK, even QQ, making him a 50/50 split at worst.

I was actually surprised at his call, but after careful thought, I think this was poor playing by me.

Flop: ($219.50) 6s 7s 3h

Turn: ($219.50) 2s

River: ($219.50) Th

Final Pot: $219.50
Hero shows As 5s (a flush, Ace high) - I'm such a luckbox!
SB shows Ac Qc (Ace Queen high)
Hero wins $216.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #194 - Easy PF fold with TT?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $54.35
UTG+2: $63.80 - 33/14 / 0% 3bet / 0% steal / 21 hands
MP1: $89.70 - 20 / 0 / 0% 3bet / 0% steal / 5 hands
MP2: $36.00
CO: $109.95
BTN: $119.75
SB: $124.35
Hero (BB): $107.35
UTG: $168.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Tc Ts
UTG requests TIME, 2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, MP1 raises to $89.70 all in, 4 folds, Hero requests TIME, 2 folds

Easy fold?  The only reason I could give myself to make this call is that he accidentally hit the wrong button.  I figure that I fold here and wait for better spots to clearly outplay him rather than take a gamble with a hand that could wind up being a coin flip.  Clearly, he's going to be an action player.

Final Pot: $5.50
MP1 wins $5.50

DQB - In love with 4betting

I am in love with 4betting.  Not many people out there are doing it, and I think I'm actually working an effective 4bet game (or so says my HEM stats...)  Perhaps $100NL is the start where people can actually lay down their JJ, QQ or even AQ, etc., which is what enables an effective 4bet game.

Below is an example where I had 4bet the field 2 times in the prior 2 hands (once I folded a flop shove and the other I took down pre-flop.  I wake up with a hand on the 3rd 4bet in a row - and induce a wonky 5bet shove.  Moreover, I flop stone quads - dem quads bitches (DQB).

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $53.80
UTG+1: $106.45
Hero (UTG+2): $100.00
MP1: $180.05
MP2: $101.00
CO: $83.05
BTN: $221.95
SB: $328.25
BB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+2 with Ks Kh
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $9, 4 folds, Hero raises to $25, MP2 requests TIME, MP2 raises to $101 all in, Hero calls $75 all in

Flop: ($201.50) Kd 6s Kc

Turn: ($201.50) Qd

River: ($201.50) Ac

Final Pot: $201.50
Hero shows Ks Kh (four of a kind, Kings)
MP2 shows 4d Ad (two pair, Aces and Kings)
Hero wins $198.50
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #193 - Overplayed or outplayed? - Another overbet shove

 Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $100.00
Hero (MP2): $100.00
CO: $100.00 - 16/12/ 38% steal / 5.7% 3bet / 2.3 AF / 852 hands
BTN: $109.95
SB: $96.00
BB: $120.70
UTG: $96.90
UTG+1: $110.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Jh Jd
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, CO raises to $10, 3 folds, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($21.50) 9d 3s 8s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $16, Hero calls $16
Okay???

Turn: ($53.50) 8d (2 players)
Hero checks, CO requests TIME, CO bets $74 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero calls $74 all in
It just looks so bluffy here.  I'm not quite sure what his intention is by doing this, but I look him up.  It's just such a weird spot to shove on the turn.  

River: ($201.50) Jc (2 players - 2 are all in)
[Face palm!]

Final Pot: $201.50
Hero shows Jh Jd (a full house, Jacks full of Eights)
CO shows Qh Qs (two pair, Queens and Eights)
Hero wins $198.50
(Rake: $3.00)

The Poker Meister #71 - A little freeroll action?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $35.00
MP2: $100.00
Hero (CO): $283.60
BTN: $181.55
SB: $103.10
BB: $145.40
UTG: $115.50
UTG+1: $104.50
UTG+2: $115.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 9c Jc
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12.00) 8c 5d 6c (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8, BTN folds, UTG+1 requests TIME, UTG+1 raises to $21, Hero calls $13

Turn: ($54.00) 7d (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $42, Hero raises to $126, UTG+1 folds
Not quite sure what he has that he can't call off the last of his $~30...  But I sure do LOVE this hand...

Final Pot: $138.00
Hero wins $135.00
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #192 - Another overbet shove hand

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $95.50
BTN: $106.80
SB: $283.25
BB: $126.75
Hero (UTG): $100.00
UTG+1: $142.45
MP1: $105.50
MP2: $112.80 - 12/8 / 22% steal / 4.1% 3bet / 3.8 AF / 81% cbet flop / 820 hands - Solid winning reg
His street by street AF is:
5.8 Flop (42% @ 77 times) 2.2 (31% @ 36 times) Turn 2.28 (46% @ 24 times) River 
Pre Flop: ($1.00) Hero is UTG with 9d 9s
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2

Flop: ($9.00) 2s Tc 4d (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $5, SB calls $5, Hero calls $5
I check to let Mr. 81% lead cbet my PFR.  No sense in raising here; if I raise, I blow him off all of his bluffs.

Turn: ($24.00) 8c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $16, SB folds, Hero calls $16
As expected, he continues.

River: ($56.00) 5s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $88.80 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
WTF?

Click to see results

Hero folds
Okay?  Now what?  I realize that I've repped a fairly strong hand - JJ+.  I don't think I can call this.  This is a bluff / nuts & I'm erring on nuts / flopped sets with 3 streets of value.  I think he has to check through by the end of this hand...  What does he have?  AT?  No way!  He's got sets here and only sets.

Final Pot: $56.00
MP2 wins $53.20
(Rake: $2.80)

What would you do? #191 - 3 flush flop + turned Ace facing big river bet with QQ

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $109.95
SB: $100.50
BB: $159.65
UTG: $194.00
UTG+1: $101.50
Hero (MP1): $145.25 - 19/15 / 54% steal / 4.5% 3bet / 10.5 AF / 190 hands (at this table, which both villains have developed their hand histories on me) - BIG winning reg at the stakes
MP2: $136.15 - 39/6 / 50% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.2 AF / 70 hands - *TERRIBLE PLAYER*
CO: $139.25 - 13/11 / 30% steal / 7.2% 3bet / 2.6 AF / 229 hands

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP1 with Qc Qd
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, MP2 calls $3, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($13.00) Jd 7d 6d (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, MP2 calls $9, CO calls $9, SB folds

Turn: ($40.00) Ah (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $28, Hero calls $28, MP2 calls $28
I likely should be folding here.  I just don't have the fortitude to lay this down.  I also feel like I have the best diamond in the bunch, but how often am I getting paid on it?  With MP2 calling behind, I am seriously questioning my diamond draw, though.

River: ($124.00) 3s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $41, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds, MP2 calls $41
I'm pretty sure - at a minimum, one of them has an Ace.  I allowed myself to get value towned for $28.  I'm not throwing the baby out with the bath water, as they say :-).

Final Pot: $206.00
MP2 mucks Ac 5d
CO shows 7c 6c (two pair, Sevens and Sixes)
CO wins $203.00
(Rake: $3.00)

Flopped straight flush

Oh how I wish I could get paid...

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG+1): $197.50
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $100.00
CO: $137.85
BTN: $85.45
SB: $63.80
BB: $101.15
UTG: $143.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with 5d 6d
1 fold, Hero calls $1, 4 folds, SB calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($3.00) 3d 7d 4d (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.00) 2c (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB folds, BB folds
Anybody willing to hold on for the Kd or Ad maybe?  Please?  What about straights?  You guys surely have a card or two that will complete your straight!  No?  Come on?  Courtesy call?  I'm not bluffing here, I swear it!

Final Pot: $3.00
Hero wins $2.85
(Rake: $0.15)

What would you do? #190 - More overbets for value?

In keeping in tune with the theme this week, here's a hand I had where I get shoved on the river from a very deep stacked opponent:

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $73.10
UTG+2: $96.75
MP1: $98.50
MP2: $100.50
CO: $100.00
BTN: $268.60 - 14/0 / meaningless stats otherwise @ 9 hands - I have him tagged as a LAG due to PTR's stats: 23.65/13.8 / 4.41%3bet though lifetime wins at $751 over 19.5K hands and a winning record at 100NL ($1257 @ 8801 hands; 7.14PTBB/100)
SB: $226.85
BB: $113.15
Hero (UTG): $101.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with Ad Qd
Hero raises to $3, 5 folds, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.00) Qs 5d Js (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6, SB folds
Flopped TPTK.

Turn: ($22.00) 9d (2 players)
Hero bets $15.40, BTN calls $15.40
Turned TPTK + diamond draw...  No reason to slow down.

River: ($52.80) 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $25, BTN raises to $244.20 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
The 5 changes nothing.  WWYD? Obviously a bit different than the prior HH's this week because this is not nearly the overbet shove, but WTF?


Click to see results

Hero folds
I just can't see him doing this with a hand that I beat.  If I review: call, call, shove?  I keep thinking about KT or T8.  I also think about T9 which is what has me questioning myself.  I have to believe the mistake I made here was leading the river.  I should have check / called rather than bet / folded.

Final Pot: $102.80
BTN wins $99.80
(Rake: $3.00)