Friday, January 15, 2010

Another "When to fold AK"

It's not very often that you find yourself at the folding end of Ace-King, pre-flop.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG: $10.00
MP: $63.05
CO: $21.65
BTN: $51.10
SB: $49.50
Hero (BB): $59.55

UTG posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is BB with Kc Ad
UTG checks, MP raises to $2.25, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.75,
I flat because I'm looking to see a cheap flop. The MP raiser is a 23/8, so I am likely against a pocket pair at worst and AK at best. Given his range, and his position, I'm putting him on TT+, and a raise will not get him off the hand.
UTG raises to $10 all in, MP raises to $63.05 all in,
What could I possibly be up against that I'm a strong favorite? Do I think he's acting this way with AQ? If he has AK, I got suckered out of $2.25. However, I'm more than likely behind; easy fold!

The question from the hand that I walk away asking myself is this: given the way the hand played out, if the MP flats in this spot, do I call & take a $10.00 flop? I've committed 20% of my stack pre-flop. However, I'm getting very good odds to call: 3-1. Is this every an EV+ situation?
1 fold

Flop: ($22.50) Qc Kh 8s

Turn: ($22.50) Qd

River: ($22.50) 3c

Final Pot: $22.50
UTG shows As 9c (a pair of Queens) - Good thinking, but wrong time against wrong person. Here is a short stacker going for a classic squeeze play. He sees raise & late call figuring there's dead money and squeeze shoves for his stack. As a short stacker, you can't do that against an 8% pre flop raiser. Stupid risk.

However, from his position, I understand what he thinks is going on: He posted a missed big blind (which is VERY EV-, particularly from UTG!!!) and he thinks that MP is stealing from him. Not only that, he knows that he can squeeze, which is a regular play from short stackers. Fortunately for me, UTG is a competent player who gets me out of a sticky situation by shoving and inducing an overshove. Thanks, UTG!
MP shows Ac Ah (two pair, Aces and Queens) - Based on the 4 bet shove (for 125+ BBs!!!), was there any question that a 4 bet shoved pot means AA or KK?
MP wins $21.40
(Rake: $1.10)

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