Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Repping an Ace

How to turn 22 into a bluff. Kinda dangerous because both are short stacks that can push at any time, but I think the PF button raise from this guy is suspect to begin with...

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

BB: $25.00
UTG: $11.05
UTG+1: $8.83
Hero (MP1): $31.49
MP2: $6.65
CO: $5.86
BTN: $7.82
SB: $24.34

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with 2c 2d
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 2 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.55, BTN calls $1.80, UTG+1 requests TIME, 1 fold
I thought about this BTN raise for a good while. He's raising .50 out of the button, with 2 limpers behind. Immediately, this line does not make sense, from a table that has been typically raising .75 + .25 for each limper. This raise SCREAMS weakness. My PF limp / RR cuts out one potential opponent. I'm more than happy to fade both players and take down the pot PF, but the BTN sticks around.

At this point, I'm sure he doesn't have AA, KK, etc. because I would have seen a short stack push right then & there. I'm actually putting him on 22 (unlikely), 33, 44, 55 (less likely), suited connectors (less likely).

Edit: After thinking about it, I am discounting an Ax, or AK, because he had not been showing down any of the Ax hands (moderate VPIP) and had been pushing the AK, QQ+ hands.

Flop: ($6.20) 8c Jc As (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, BTN folds
Great flop to lead. If it had come down rainbow, my bet would be very suspicious, but I can represent a bet for value with the Ace, where I know his underpair (to the board) can't call an all-over flop without the set.

Edit: I'm not sure what I'm going to do if he calls / floats me here. My line is pretty strong at this point. He has ~$2 left if he makes this call, which, to me says he's is a shove or fold line. I think if he shoves, I am in a situation where I have to call ~$2 to win ~$16. It's an awkward spot for both him & me - glad I put the decision to him.

Final Pot: $6.20
Hero wins $5.89
(Rake: $0.31)
Nice takedown.

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