(From Rush poker)
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
UTG: $49.50
UTG+1: $16.00
UTG+2: $191.85
MP1: $28.50
MP2: $97.50
CO: $49.40
BTN: $55.80
Hero (SB): $116.60
BB: $41.05
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah 2h
4 folds, MP2 raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.25, 1 fold
Speculative hand with 2 players, one deep stacked. Profitable call with suited connector...
Flop: ($5.00) 5s 4c As (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2
Gutshot + TP.
Turn: ($11.00) 2s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks
I'm hoping for a MP2 / CO turn cbet... no dice.
River: ($11.00) 6s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $4, CO calls $4, So what would you do here?
Click to see results
Hero folds
4 spades, 4 straight board. Is it reasonable to fold here? I have no reads on these players prior to the hand.
I don't think I made a mistake here by folding; the $4 bet feels very much like a value bet, and less like a river steal. The way I read it, MP2 has a flush and wants to guarantee a call from one or both of us. By CO making the call, I *HAVE* to be beat. Someone has to have a spade, 3, or set.
Final Pot: $19.00
MP2 shows 6d 7c (a pair of Sixes) - WRONG!!!
CO shows Kc Ac (a pair of Aces) - WRONG!!!
CO wins $18.05
(Rake: $0.95)
This reminds me of some 6/12 limit hands I have played. Four flush hits the river, 10 big bets in the pot, and a random guy fires into two other people. In those limit pots, it is a must-call every time (simply because it is a great spot to bluff, a rarity in limit).
ReplyDeleteIn this case, you are getting 4.5:1 on whether one of those guys has a spade. The straight is very unlikely because I doubt either of them would have checked the turn if they had a 3. So if there is 18% or greater chance you have the best hand, you should call.
MP2 could have the flush with some sort of QQ or KK type hand including a spade. CO is more likely to have a spade but it wouldn't be a large one. But, both of them skipped the semi-bluff on the turn, which makes them holding a spade less likely.
Ultimately if there is 18% or greater chance you have the best hand, you should call. Honestly, it is really borderline whether you get those odds -- calling or folding are both pretty good here. Given the way the hand played out, I have a slight lean toward calling, but only slight.
When CO calls, I think to myself that I have to be beat; what else can CO call with other than a spade? If CO is not calling, I'm likely calling.
ReplyDeleteGreat comment Sean :)
ReplyDeleteHard to tell without seeing the action live and knowing anything about the players but neither of them looks too happy with their hand.
ReplyDeleteYou have good odds for a call and aces up is good many times when hijack steals and CO flats. Plus you close the action.
4 to a straight and 4 to a flush I don't think folding is bad but I agree with Sean that a straight isn't likely and based on the action, unless CO is trapping even if he has a flush, it's not a big flush.
I think calling or folding is OK but for the sake of discussion, raising here might be worth considering.
You're turning your hand into a bluff but I think this isn't a bad spot to do it based on your position and the action.