Friday, March 12, 2010

What would you do? #66 - set, facing turn shove

Another one from the Rush poker archives; omgitsjoshua is the hero here:

I was involved in the hand, though auto-folded immediately.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official Hand History Converter

SB: $62.10
BB: $130.10
UTG: $57.75
UTG+1: $48.50
UTG+2: $60.00 - me, folding my 2s8d, not that it makes any difference :-)
MP1: $50.90
MP2: $25.00
Hero (CO): $58.95
BTN: $35.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Jd Jh
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) Kd 4s Qd (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

Turn: ($7.50) Js (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB raises to $58.60 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
WTF? What would you do?

My comments to Josh were: The pot is so small here that I think it's a smart move to fold. What hands are you beating? 444 and 2 pair combos.
The more I think about it though, perhaps he hit 2 pair - perhaps he had an unlikely KJ? It just seems like such an odd shove with AT....

His response: or i was thinking 9-10 or diamonds or spades. or open ended with flush
draw. thats what made the decision so dificult. if he 3x me, ok no problem, but a shove like that? i surrender, i know i'm weak.

Final Pot: $14.50
SB wins $13.80
(Rake: $0.70)

1 comment:

  1. I think this one is a clear call.

    Hero raise preflop, made the CB on the flop, and the SB waited until the turn to make his first raise. While that doesn't rule out KK, QQ, it makes them pretty unlikely.

    The shove on the turn could be AT. T9 is unlikely, but possible. KK and QQ are unlikely by the reasoning given above. Two pair is possible, maybe just as possible as AT. QJ, KJ, even KQ could have played in that way. 44 is very possible. Heck, a pair and flush draw could even have made the shove on the end -- your bets were a little on the small side given the flush draw out there, so it could have been seen as weakness.

    The other key is that your are unlikely to have less than 10 outs if you are behind. That alone, given approximately 55-45 odds and a number of hands you can beat, makes me think calling is pretty mandatory. Sure, you may get shown a straight more than half the time, but the call will still be profitable.


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