Tuesday, March 30, 2010

What would you do? #73 - Rivered flush facing big raise

From the Rush tables:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $28.75
MP2: $49.50
CO: $116.20
BTN: $82.40
SB: $245.90
Hero (BB): $70.85
UTG: $101.05
UTG+1: $78.65
UTG+2: $30.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 2c 7c
5 folds, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.25) Ad 9c Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.25) Qh (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

River: ($11.25) 6c (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, CO raises to $33, Hero requests TIME,

Click to see results

Hero folds
Alright; rivered flush - albeit a weak flush. The only logical thing I can think here is he has AcXc for the TP / flush draw on the flop. I guess this is a pretty easy laydown after thinking about it...

Final Pot: $25.75
CO wins $24.50
(Rake: $1.25)


  1. Yikes, I'm really not sure on this one. Without a read, I'd be leaning toward fold. Unless he completely missed the flush draw coming in or is overplaying aces up or a set, I have to assume he has a better flush. You are basically getting 2:1 on whether he doesn't have a flush.

    I'd say fold.

  2. With ~25BBs in, and another 25BBs more to call, I figure to pack it in and say good night. Yes he could be overplaying sets and 2pr hands, but I just don't see him raising large with a lesser hand than flush when I have played it like I was on a flush draw all along.

  3. Hmmm.. close. I can't say for sure he has the nut flush. Of course he might.

    Given stack size, we'll give him that he is ok player. Would an OK player open limp with Ax sooted? OK, maybe he isn't a good player.

    I played a hand last night where I had KcQc in SB (this was a raised pot), Flop is Js9s3c. He 1/2 potted and I called. 10s on turn puttig flush out there and giving me straight. He bet and I Pushed and he called with a set.

    Not exactly the same as your situation other than the fact is that he doesn't have to have a higher flush.

    Would I have folded? Tough to say. I'd put straight cards in his range. Wow, this is really close. Since you are a blogger and it is the hammer, I'd have to call and then brag on the great call.

  4. LOL - Didn't even think about it being the hammer. I just figured 7 high flush. :-)

  5. I don't know...

    The metagame benefits of showing down 27 are pretty big. Especially if you win.

    That probably doesn't apply as much to Rush but showing down 27 is cool and sometimes cool > profit :)

    So many times I've seen that line, x/c x/c lead, be a weak hand and I'll often raise the river. Even a min raise gets them to fold.

    What's funny is a lot of times they'll even lie about their hand in chat. Say something like "I had Jhigh flush, guess you had me beat." Meanwhile I'm holding the J and usually no flush :).

    Sometimes the river raise is for value. Maybe check calling the river would have been better. 7high flush is a good bluff catcher BvB and I can see people making this move with the bare As.

  6. It was an unraised pot from a limped CO. The forcing for me was the consideration that I x/c'd the whole way to a binked river which puts the 3 flush on the board. It definitely sucks to get to the river and put in a bunch of money only to ditch out of the hand, but I have FAR from the nuts here - and I'm facing a STRONG raise. He can have everything from AcXc to monsters like KcQc / KcJc / QcJc. But the reality is that he can limp anything from 89s up and any suited combos and have me dominated.

    "Sometimes the river raise is for value. Maybe check calling the river would have been better. 7high flush is a good bluff catcher BvB and I can see people making this move with the bare As."
    If I'm checking, I'm assuming he's checking behind with his Ax hand; he has no reason to turn his hand into a bluff on the river, and likely feels as though he has showdown value with a naked Ace. Moreover, I feel as though I've played the hand like I'm on a flush draw. Very few people are raising this river with a one- or two- pair hand on a limped pot. The $7.25 into $11.25 is a value bet in itself. If he turned his hand into a bluff by raising, so be it. I suppose with that regard, I'm exploitable. However, are you really getting raised on the river with ANY frequency by a player not holding the nuts or close to it? I've seen plenty of sets act this way, but he limped - and the flop has a bunch of "premium" cards that would be raisable from late position.

  7. "However, are you really getting raised on the river with ANY frequency by a player not holding the nuts or close to it?"

    I wouldn't lead the river so I wouldn't have many stats of being raised in this spot.

    My opponents on the other hand. They seem to get raised by non nut hands quite a bit in these spots :) Sometimes with the nuts too or close too it. Maybe this is a bit different because a lot of draws got there.

    But I just don't see any reason to lead the turn here.

    If he checks behind you still have a chance to win at showdown. Odds of two players making the same flush on a 3 flushed board aren't huge.

    Checking can also induce a bluff from a weaker hand at a price that's worth calling.

    When you lead you're usually going to be called by better or opening up the opportunity to be bluffed off the winning hand.

    Since you didn't lead or x/r the flop chances are you don't have the A high flush. Even if you're representing the flush, you haven't been representing a flush that can withstand a raise.

    There's just so much value in getting to a cheap showdown here. Either for possibly having the winning hand or for the value it adds to your image.

    Is a 7 high flush good? Probably not, but if you haven't tried to figure that out before the river your goal should be a cheap showdown in my opinion.

  8. MicroRoller - I'm not sure what you're saying. Are you suggesting I check / raise the river or check / call the river? The thing with this hand is either you believe your flush is good or not.

    I think a check raise will only set you up to get stacked, because your river raise essentially commits you to get a price that you have to make the call.

    If you check and he checks, you get no value for your hand; generally a 3 flush board is being checked behind with all Ax, 2 pair and [most] sets, in my experience. Particularly, the way this hand played out.

    A check / call - yes - gets you to showdown cheaply, but again, you're getting no value on the river for what you believe is the best hand. I don't think, with a made hand, you are looking to get to showdown cheaply. If you're looking to get to showdown cheaply, then you should be folding on the flop, because you believe your club flush is no good from the get-go.

    My feeling with a river check / raise from out of position is that I have to really know my opponent. I have to know that he's going to bet a high percentage of the time when checked-to, because otherwise, I'm missing a TON of value in a TON of hands by second- and third- and worse hands calling me.

  9. You may have intended it as a value bet but I think from villain's perspective it looks more like a blocking bet.

    If you really think you have the best hand then be willing to go all the way with it.

    If you're unsure, check calling feels like the right play in this spot. Especially when you were being so passive about the hand.

    Here's an article on this type of situation. It's a little old, I don't like being that passive but the way you played the hand and the lack of info on villain makes it hard to put him on a range/hand here.

    And really think about it. At the end of the month, how much profit do you expect to be showing from 27s? :) If you win just think of it like a nice little bonus that fell in your lap while in the BB.

    I don't know how often you run into the same people on Rush but if you do just imagine the tilt you can put him on if you win in this spot. Even if you lose he might make a note "Donk calls down with 27 and rivers flush" if you win or lose that could get you action in the future when you flop the nuts and play it passively.

    Instead he might have put down "Folds blocking bet to large raises." In which case you'll have a hard time extracting thin value from him in the future.

    Just my opinion though. I saw you're getting a coach. You can show him this discussion to give you a more informed answer in case I'm totally off base.

  10. "You can show him this discussion to give you a more informed answer in case I'm totally off base."

    - I plan on going through a lot of hands in this blog with a coach. I don't think that you're off base either way, though. There are many ways to skin the poker cat. Many different approaches. I post the hands up here so that I can get outside opinions; those opinions are tremendously appreciated.

    Most of the hands are symbolic of situations we've all been in. My intent is to spawn discussion; if you feel like I've shut you down or discarded your opinion, please don't. That's not my intention at all.

  11. Thought I'd put out a little disclaimer in case you or anyone else reading this makes decisions based on anything I wrote and loses their roll :)


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