Tuesday, March 23, 2010

What would you do? #71 - 4 flush 4 straight river board facing 1/3 pot bet

I made a bad laydown (not hugely costly but bad nevertheless).... What would you do?

(From Rush poker)
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $49.50
UTG+1: $16.00
UTG+2: $191.85
MP1: $28.50
MP2: $97.50
CO: $49.40
BTN: $55.80
Hero (SB): $116.60
BB: $41.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ah 2h
4 folds, MP2 raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.25, 1 fold
Speculative hand with 2 players, one deep stacked. Profitable call with suited connector...

Flop: ($5.00) 5s 4c As (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2
Gutshot + TP.

Turn: ($11.00) 2s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks
I'm hoping for a MP2 / CO turn cbet... no dice.

River: ($11.00) 6s (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $4, CO calls $4, So what would you do here?

Click to see results

Hero folds
4 spades, 4 straight board. Is it reasonable to fold here? I have no reads on these players prior to the hand.

I don't think I made a mistake here by folding; the $4 bet feels very much like a value bet, and less like a river steal. The way I read it, MP2 has a flush and wants to guarantee a call from one or both of us. By CO making the call, I *HAVE* to be beat. Someone has to have a spade, 3, or set.

Final Pot: $19.00
MP2 shows 6d 7c (a pair of Sixes) - WRONG!!!
CO shows Kc Ac (a pair of Aces) - WRONG!!!
CO wins $18.05
(Rake: $0.95)


  1. This reminds me of some 6/12 limit hands I have played. Four flush hits the river, 10 big bets in the pot, and a random guy fires into two other people. In those limit pots, it is a must-call every time (simply because it is a great spot to bluff, a rarity in limit).

    In this case, you are getting 4.5:1 on whether one of those guys has a spade. The straight is very unlikely because I doubt either of them would have checked the turn if they had a 3. So if there is 18% or greater chance you have the best hand, you should call.

    MP2 could have the flush with some sort of QQ or KK type hand including a spade. CO is more likely to have a spade but it wouldn't be a large one. But, both of them skipped the semi-bluff on the turn, which makes them holding a spade less likely.

    Ultimately if there is 18% or greater chance you have the best hand, you should call. Honestly, it is really borderline whether you get those odds -- calling or folding are both pretty good here. Given the way the hand played out, I have a slight lean toward calling, but only slight.

  2. When CO calls, I think to myself that I have to be beat; what else can CO call with other than a spade? If CO is not calling, I'm likely calling.

  3. Hard to tell without seeing the action live and knowing anything about the players but neither of them looks too happy with their hand.

    You have good odds for a call and aces up is good many times when hijack steals and CO flats. Plus you close the action.

    4 to a straight and 4 to a flush I don't think folding is bad but I agree with Sean that a straight isn't likely and based on the action, unless CO is trapping even if he has a flush, it's not a big flush.

    I think calling or folding is OK but for the sake of discussion, raising here might be worth considering.

    You're turning your hand into a bluff but I think this isn't a bad spot to do it based on your position and the action.


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