Wednesday, October 28, 2009

What would you do? #15

Against a well-known reg - 16/11/2.6 @ 740 hands... To date, I have never bets this strong from him with any hands I've seen to date.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $21.65
MP2: $50.00
CO: $21.40
Hero (BTN): $76.90
SB: $51.85
BB: $17.90
UTG: $10.95
UTG+1: $27.20

CO posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is BTN with Td As
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $1, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold
Weak raise, Mp2 calling, CO calling - a decent Ace gets me calling.

Flop: ($5.50) 3h Th 6d (5 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $0.50, MP2 raises to $3, CO folds, Hero calls $3, SB folds, MP1 folds
With the heart draw, MP1's bet makes no sense (.50 into 5.50?). However, a healthy raise from MP2 has my warning lights on. He's not raising enough to throw the hand away, so I call to see a turn card.

Turn: ($12.00) 2c (2 players)
MP2 bets $8, Hero ???
To date, I have never seen this particular opponent lead / raise / bet so strongly. The only thing I can put him on is a limped 33 or 66 for the set. I have to imagine that if he has JJ-AA, he would have re-raised PF, though his stats suggest that he doesn't 3 bet very often at all. Therefore, I put him on a set. I just don't see him flatting PF with AT-JT and betting crazy like this.

Click to see results

Hero folds

Final Pot: $12.00
MP2 wins $11.40
(Rake: $0.60)


  1. Snap-fold. One of four hands guaranteed: 33, 66, JJ or QQ. You're drawing thin. I don't like your flat call on the flop because you're playing a guessing game on a passive line. You can't re-raise him to 'find out where you're at' and whether he checks or leads out the turn is irrelevant, since you know he is never doing this with 10-J through A-10. Watch the leaking in these types of spots.

    I don't like your flat pre-flop since its so easy to be dominated with A-10 and so tough to win a large pot unless you hit broadway or better.

  2. MP1 made a weak raise (2x) pf in what looks like a weak attempt to steal the blinds+the late position post.

    I would probably r/r the flop to find out where you are. I agree MP1 is probably folding 80% of the time on that flop after the weak c-bet.

    I think the turn is a call b/c your cold call on the flop makes your hand look like a flush draw and you have position. If your opponent isn't on a flush draw and another heart hits then you can probably get to showdown on the river without any more bets or possibly bet him off a better hand. I can see the argument for folding if you oop, but with position I think this is a call.


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