Monday, October 5, 2009

Never Do This

I don't need to go through and explain about how this hand played out, because it would become fairly obvious what my holdings were had you not seen my hand. The point I want to make is the tragic flaw that MP2 made by forgetting the fact that players could reasonably get to a flop calling a 4x raise [profitably] in a NL cash structure with 100+ BB.

Hand #1
Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

MP2: $30.76
CO: $25.66
Hero (BTN): $27.06
SB: $25.10
BB: $4.45
UTG: $11.18
UTG+1: $30.51
UTG+2: $12.41
MP1: $4.20

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 6h 7h
4 folds, MP2 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) Kh 6d 6c (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $3, MP2 calls $1.50

Turn: ($8.35) Ac (2 players)
MP2 bets $26.76 all in, Hero calls $23.06 all in

River: ($54.47) 7d (2 players - 2 are all in)

There will be plenty of circumstances where you're not sure whether you're way ahead or way behind--this being one of them. While the villain [MP2] really liked his hand by the turn, it doesn't mean he should be willing to play for his stack at that point. In this type of way behind/ahead scenario, the villain will always be raised by someone with a better hand [i.e. a 6x and the extremely rare, but possible AA or KK]. The villain will only sometimes be raised by weaker hands such as KQ on the flop or AJ on the turn, etc. Rarely will the villain be raised with a hand much less. With that said, I think the standard line to take is to value-bet downward and consider folding to a large raise. By no means would you open all-in like the villain did on the turn and risk a stack with plenty of fold equity for a pot that is less than 1/3 of the size as your stack. A shove on the turn with AK is absolutely tragic b/c it will force lesser holdings to fold, doesn't extract value from Ax, Kx and club draws and will only get called by a hand that has AK beat. Put simply, nobody is calling a $23 bet into an $8 pot here with only 2pair. The question is that if you're MP2 how do you fold your hand by the turn? By the river? Which of the following is the most likely line to take to get away from AK on the turn and/or river... the turn? the turn, bet-fold the river?
...check-raise the turn, fold to a re-raise?
...check-call the turn, bet-fold the river?
...check-call the turn, check-raise the river and fold to a re-raise?
...check-call the turn, check-call the river?

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