Monday, July 20, 2009

The other shoe drops (of course)

From running into an ATM who was spewing cash on Friday, to last night, it's like a 180 degree turn. I've been running "bad" since Friday, where I added $120 to my bankroll. When I say "bad," I mean I've been continually getting into situations where I'm running my pocket Aces into sets, AKs into sets, and my culminating events of last night: more than three times running my pocket Kings into Aces (all in pre flop, OF COURSE). One other negative was a 60/10 donkey rivering a boat as I river my nut flush and him taking what essentially amounted to my stack (probably should have and could have been avoided). At any rate, I've gone from up $120 to start the weekend to up $50 to end the weekend. A nice weekend nevertheless, which is why I put quotes around bad, but still... a $70 downturn from Friday to Sunday. 7 buy ins? Wow. That's big.

I've been taking shots at the .1/.25 tables, which has been contributing to my downturn. Negative variance has been pretty strong there, where I've been set over setted, sucked out, etc. Therefore, I've focused on playing the deepstacked .05/.10 tables, where, when I'm neutral variance, I'm profitable.

On another front, I took a look at playing limit hold'em. I sat down at the .50/1.00 tables - man are they soft! I got the idea from a posting a few days ago by Poker Grump: Have I been missing out on the money? Poker Grump is correct; these are easy games. Most of tables have players / flop of upwards of 50%. The only problem is that your variance will likely be high because these players are betting all the way to the river with AK high. You need to be prepared to call down with your weaker holdings, though you will get paid with your stronger holdings. At any rate, as I get my bankroll up, I will try to grind through these tables just for additional profit. The poker is largely unexciting; more frustrating than anything else, because you see some idiot betting betting and betting only to river his Ace when you were good all along. Perhaps that aspect is more of an adjustment to limit hold'em as opposed to NLHE.

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