Monday, July 27, 2009

Are you able to get away from this?

I really need to be able to drop this hand. I don't know what I was thinking making the river call. I think I'm just not good enough yet to drop this hand. The way he played this hand, there is really only one hand that he can have that beats me. Additionally, I clearly made a mistake by checking the turn.

Background: MP1 is 23/18/4.0 @ 22 hands. Limited history...

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from

Hero (UTG+1) ($76.99)
MP1 ($26.13)
MP2 ($30.93)
CO ($3.88)
Button ($4.07)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
UTG ($25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8h, 7h
1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, MP1 bets $1.10, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.85
Suited connectors play well against any holdings. Either they hit or they miss; easy to get away, except when I play them as played below...

Flop: ($2.55) 8c, 10s, Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $1.65, Hero calls $1.65
Is he really raising PF with AJ, AT, JT or overpair? Overpair is much more likely from MP1 - AA, KK, QQ. However, his "smallish" bet of ~60% pot says that I am likely good here. I smooth call because I want to keep the pot contained in the event a Q, K or A turns.

Turn: ($5.85) 8s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks
I check, expecting MP1 to bet out again. This time, I'm going for a check / raise, because I am 95% sure I'm good here. Unfortunately, MP1 checks behind, getting a free river.

River: ($5.85) Qh (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $4.25, Hero calls $4.25
Here is my thought process to the call. It is flawed because I erred more on putting him on AK, but could not let it drop... So, the way he played this hand, he has AQ / AK / AA / KK / QQ and some possible combination of undercards - and cbets the flop. His check of the turn eliminates AA / KK / QQ and undercards (assuming that he is a straight forward player), because he is trying to contain the pot with his inside draw + 2 overs (10 outs). When the Q hits the river, which is likely the worst card in the deck for me, he bets ~ 80% pot. I have now narrowed down his holdings to AQ, AK, QQ (much less likely QQ based on him not protecting his overpair and checking the turn). He has an equal chance of holding AQ vs. AK so this is really a coin flip for me to call or fold. I make the crying call to pay off the rivered straight; I think, in retrospect, I should have folded and saved the $4.25. I made a winning hand and small checked turn mistake into a much larger $4.25 error. I need to be able to lay this hand down.

Total pot: $14.35 | Rake: $0.71

Hero had 8h, 7h (three of a kind, eights).
MP1 had Ah, Ks (straight, Ace high).
Outcome: MP1 won $13.64

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