What would you do? #177 - A botched job

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $54.60
UTG+1: $105.45
UTG+2: $35.00
MP1: $116.85
MP2: $172.90 - 40/21 / 75% steal / 10% 3bet @ 49 hands
Hero (CO): $132.30
BTN: $128.55
SB: $207.95 - 14/11 / 45% steal / 2.3% 3bet / 2.0 AF / 1.3K hands (Textbook player)
BB: $120.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Jc Kc
4 folds, MP2 raises to $3, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, SB calls $10, 1 fold, MP2 calls $7.50
I want to iso the donkey.  I don't have a problem 3betting here.  Unfortunately, SB comes along.

Flop: ($32.50) Jh 9s 5s (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15, MP2 folds
I lead the 2 spade flop...  seems like a reasonable flop to lead, particularly since I hit my "gin" card.  I'd love to take this sucker down right now; there's quite a few draws on the board...

Turn: ($62.50) 2c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
I'm terribly unhappy about SB's flatting 2 streets.  I definitely *DON'T* want to involve stacks here; SB is polarized to monsters / draws; I can afford peeling a free card while in position.

River: ($62.50) 8d (2 players)
SB bets $30, Hero calls $30
Now here's the problem: is a 14/11 /2.0AF *EVER* leading the river like this without wanting an expensive showdown?  Is this a profitable call?  I suppose my question is villain dependent... if I have the guy as bluff leading a lot of checked turns then it's clear that this is profitable.  However, for a textbook player such as this, in similar situations in the future, this needs to be a fold.

I just feel like he shows up with busted flush draws as often as the winning hand.  Also note that QT would have gotten there, but I don't feel like a 14/11 is defending with QT.

Thoughts?

Final Pot: $122.50
Hero mucks Jc Kc
SB shows Kh Kd (a pair of Kings)
SB wins $119.50
(Rake: $3.00)

Running good, playing good, feeling good

First: Happy Rosh Hashanah to my Hebes out there - you know who you are, my tribal members!

I haven't posted graphs / stats / win rates on myself in a LONG time...  However, I feel compelled to post this up, as I'm proud of the fact that I'm working off my "debt" at 100NL...  At my peak, I was $-1,200 at 100NL.  Now, I stand at $-570 (see circled).  I can't wait to post the official break-even player post!  Admittedly, I'm running about a buy-in better than EV, but that has been fluctuating back & forth to positive / negative.

The coaching / leakfinder session helped SO MUCH!  It didn't feel like it at the time, but I have definitely improved my game based on suggestions from Mpethy & SplitSuit.  I've also improved my confidence.  I highly recommend both of their services.

What would you do? #176 - Holding overpair against a strong turn bet

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $105.40
BB: $101.50
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $103.70
MP1: $100.00
Hero (MP2): $133.00
CO: $119.25 - 13/10 / 45% steal / 2.6% 3bet / 1.8 AF / 1.1K hands
BTN: $100.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Ts Tc
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 9h 7s 3h (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, CO raises to $13.50, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($34.50) 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $23, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
This bet feels very much like a set up to shove the river.  I wonder whether it's a mistake to call the flop raise.  What did I do wrong here, and what would you do differently (if anything)?

Final Pot: $34.50
CO wins $32.80
(Rake: $1.70)

What I'm up to lately - a quick status update

A few things I've been thinking about / doing lately:

• Had a Leakfinder session with Mpethy.  I think it was very successful; he helped find a bunch of leaks which will likely increase my winrate.  A few of the holes:
• Dump or limp 22-66 in UTG & EP positions instead of raising.  I have accordingly adjusted by limping small pocket pairs in those positions and folding to a raise.  Also, I am raising KQ and [sometimes] AJs.  Raising KQ makes sense: there are 5 hands that dominate KQ - 4 of which are usually 3 betting.  I actually really like and prefer limping the small pocket pairs from early position - a lot of the time, it acts as a delayed steal when it folds around to the SB / BB.  The flop can be any texture and betting $1.50 into a $2.85 pot usually is enough to take it down.  FWIW, I'm also limping suited connectors.
• I was calling steals with small pocket pairs and decent hands that out-range a steal.  I should either be 3betting or folding to a steal in that spot rather than flat and play the rest of the hand out of position. 
• I am leaking money from the CO by either calling too many 3 bets or cbetting too much.  I need to stop stealing as much from the CO; reduce my range to a smaller range than the BTN.  I also need to stop flatting 3bets in position.
• Had a coaching session with SplitSuit.  A few things learned there in particular to specific hand situations.  Nothing earth-shattering or game changing.
• One note that I had was raise-sizing.  I am playing around with changing my raise sizes; prior to now, I was raising 3.5x from EP & MP positions and 3x from CO & BTN.  I am now raising 3x from all positions.  He suggested raising even as low as 2x from EP such that I can profitably call a 3bet because the raise pot 3bet would raise to 8BBs or so, less than 10% stacks of a full 100BB stack.  There does not seem to be a discernible difference in calls / 3bets from 3.5x down to 3x.  It also makes the pot a bit easier to play OOP, post flop, because the pot size is a bit smaller.  FYI, I am still keeping to the formula of 4x + 1BB per limper for raised pots; therefore a raise after one limper would be to $5.
• I am note-taking on showdown hands and off-normal behavior.  Prior to my coaching session, I was taking a note on overall play (i.e. tagging a player as green for LAG, making them easily identifiable prior to sitting down).  Now I am detailing their 3bets, what they're showing down, and what they're calling to my 3bets.
• Try out 3betting an aggressive player (18/15, etc.) in position more, with lesser hands such as JTs and take a note on their reaction.  I haven't implemented this yet; I'm a bit scared to "random" 3bet a tight-ish player, but I leave it as room for growth.  FWIW, I tried 3betting in a random position last night and induced a fold.
• I've been playing 100NL solely this month.  I'm currently finding it easier than 50NL.
• There seems to be far more loose, aggressive players there - and when they try to make a "play," it usually does not make sense; i.e. they bluff in spots where they are so polarized to nuts / air with a heavy weighting towards air.
• The aggression at 100NL is a step up from 50NL.
• I'm getting squeezed FAR more often.  I emailed SplitSuit about this problem, and maybe the readers have an opinion.  There are two occasions where I'm squeezed:
• I open with 77-JJ from the UTG, EP positions and get 1 or more callers.  A 10/7 or 8/8 -type player with a 3.5% 3bet always seems to 3bet my $3 open (with $7.5-$10 in the pot already after the 1 - 2 additional callers) to $15-$18 from the SB / BB spots.
  
  What am I expected to do here?  Is there something obvious I'm missing?  I've been opting to fold, but this seems like a HUGE profitable spot for SB / BB squeeze with literally any two cards.  I think the choice is to either 4bet or fold; I think flatting is bad, even with position.  By the time SB/BB 3bets, the pot is now about $35.  If I 4bet him, I'm 4betting to $25-30, but this seems HUGELY bluffy - declaring I don't have AA, KK, making a 5bet (bluff or not) shove very easy and profitable.  I feel like a 4bet is committing a TON of money with a marginal hand that could be dominated already.  Am I going through a weird stretch where these players are luckboxing with cards, or is this standard?
• Similarly, I flat / set-mine with 22-TT from a later position to an EP's 3x open.  Whether or not there are additional callers, the SB / BB who is a 12/10 10/7, etc. with a 6%+ 3bet always seems to 3bet up to a similar $15-18.  I am asking the same questions as above, other than the fact that I am not the original aggressor.
  
  First, should I be opting to 3bet the original EP raise instead of over-calling?  Second, this is a much different spot, where I cannot reasonably expect to 4bet because I would have 4bet prior to it getting to the would-be squeezer.
•  Usually, in both cases, the original raiser will wind up folding and all others will drop like dominoes, resulting in a nice payday for the squeezer.  HELP!!!
• Once I got over the fact that I'm playing a lot more money on the table, which was contributing to my weak play, I realize that I have a solid game at the 100NL level - I am definitely competitive.
• I dropped from 9 tables (at 50NL) to 6 tables (at 100NL) - still more overall money on the table, but not double.  I don't know whether I will add tables in the future; the quality of my decisions seems to be a lot better than what I would be doing in a 9 table session.  I think the 6 table format reduces time pressures and allows me more time to make better decisions.
• I am table selecting better, as a result of my more frequent note-taking.  With Full Tilt's auto-waitlist feature, where I can automatically add myself to every table and accept / decline the tables as they become available, I can hunt out tables where I either don't have a note / tag on the player or are marked green, and decline tables with "red" tags.
• What else?  I'm building up a brick-n-mortar library.  I have a HUGE selection of ebooks, but very few tangible, paper books.  I've always thought the idea of having at least some of the classics is a cool idea, so I've been buying books on ebay as they come available.  A few of the books I've purchased so far on my "spree":
• Super System Limited Edition (hard cover) - Doyle Brunson ($17.00 + free shipping)
• Super System 2 Limited Edition (hard cover) - Doyle Brunson ($10.50 + free shipping)
• Professional No-Limit Hold 'em: Volume I - Ed Miller, Matt Flynn, Sunny Mehta ($7.53 + $3.38 s/h) - The best intermediate poker book on the market IMO.
• Elements of Poker - Tommy Angelo ($12.50 + $4.00 s/h) - A great read on the game outside of the table.
• Caro's Book of Poker Tells - Mike Caro ($12.51 + $4.00 s/h)
• Ace on the River - Barry Greenstein ($10.01 + $2.00 s/h)
• Check-Raising the Devil - Amy Calistri, Mike Matusow ($10.01 + $2.00 s/h)
• The Mathematics of Poker - Bill Chen ($5.50 + $4.00 s/h)
• Sit 'n Go Strategy - Colin Moshman ($10.01 + $2.95 s/h) - I'm currently reading this; I am told that this is the bible on SNG tournaments.  So far, so good.
• Harrington on Hold'em Volume 1 - Dan Harrington, Bill Robertie ($7.03 + $2.25 s/h)
• Harrington on Hold'em Volume 2 - Dan Harrington, Bill Robertie ($6.55 + $2.25 s/h)
  
  $140 in 9 books...  Why do I obsess about owning possessions like this?  Add to that a purchase of 1 year of Card Player magazine for $15, and I've spent more on indirect poker training this year than all other years combined.  WTF?
•  That's all for now.  I'm hoping to get a few constructive comments on the squeeze issue that I'm running into.  I don't think I have a particularly high fold to 3bet or what, but it just seems like such a profitable play!  Figure that you're looking at a pot of $7-$10 and you risk $16-18 to win $7-10.  You need to win 2 out of 3 times to be profitable there, right?  From what I've seen, these squeezers are winning far more than 2 out of 3 times!
• One final thing: is there a stat for displaying squeeze attempts?  I would like to add a squeeze % attempt to my HUD.  I think it would become useful for exploiting the times where there is a habitual squeezer to act and I flat AA, KK.

Sorry for the long post!

What would you do? #175 - Facing flop shove holding PP Aces

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $120.05
CO: $99.00
BTN: $100.00
SB: $121.90
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $130.00
UTG+1: $142.35
UTG+2: $84.35 - 8/8/ 100% steal / 0% 3bet / inf AF / 9 hands
MP1: $129.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Ad Ah
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $15, UTG+2 calls $12, 1 fold, SB calls $12

Flop: ($48.00) 2d Qc 8h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $69.35 all in, SB folds, Hero ???

Again, am I making more out of this than it actually is?  Easy call, right?  If he shows up with a set, GG sir.  I don't think folding here is ever going to be profitable with AA.

Hero calls $69.35

Turn: ($186.70) Kh (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($186.70) 8c (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $186.70
Hero shows Ad Ah (two pair, Aces and Eights)
UTG+2 shows As 2h (two pair, Eights and Twos)
Hero wins $183.70
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #174 - Aces up facing HUGE overbet shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $90.00
SB: $90.40
BB: $101.50
UTG: $117.90
UTG+1: $124.50
UTG+2: $127.50 - 47/20/ 67% steal / 0% 3bet / 5.0 AF / 15 hands
MP1: $72.50
Hero (MP2): $199.75
CO: $101.55

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Jh Ac
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds
Not normally a call in this position, but this guy has been very active in limited hands.

Flop: ($12.00) Jc Kd Qc (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $7, CO folds, UTG+2 raises to $17, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($46.00) Ah (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

River: ($46.00) 7s (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $107 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

Hero folds
I have no idea what to do here.  Any help?  I don't even know what to say here.  Am I making more of this than it actually is?

Final Pot: $46.00
UTG+2 wins $43.70
(Rake: $2.30)

Struggling with demons - betting a checked river

Phil Laak

I'm half-way through reading the September 2010 issue of Bluff magazine and came across a great excerpt from Phil Laak's article "Random Truths."

"Random Truth 6: If you know they are going to call but need to bluff to win the pot, you will do a lot better by just losing what is already in there.  Don't bluff in this spot.  It is a leak."

Wow.  Not that he's the innovator of this concept; I had been figuring this out and thinking about it myself over the last 2 months, but I've never seen it in writing.  I suppose it's common sense, but I've been chasing down this demon WITH A VENGEANCE, to get rid of my own leak.

I think I've had 2 types of leaks stemming from this branch of action:

• When the pot is large and I know I don't have a showdown-worthy hand (i.e. missed all of my draws, etc.), I will not get anywhere by shoving the remaining half of my stack in - of course I'm getting called!  If my opponent calls the turn bet committing half of his stack, he's going to call the river for the other half.  I am working hard to get rid of this leak, and I've been very successful as of late.
• When the pot is small and I have nothing, don't bet pot to try to take my opponent off of his hand.  The risk / reward is too great.  I am learning to manage my bet size in this type of situation.  For example, if I am looking at a 10BB pot, will a 10BB bet take my opponent off his hand any more than a 4 or 5BB bet?  I've taken many opponent who were drawing off of their hand - but I've misread plenty of opponents who have a marginal hand that can call a river bet due to real size of the bet; i.e. it's worth it to my opponent to call a 10BB bet with a top pair-type hand.  He's not raising, just catching bluffs.  He's going to call a 4BB just the same.
  
  One last thing about small pot river bets: Why should I be risking dollars to win pennies?  If it's going to take a big bet to win a small pot, why is it worth it?  I need to overcome my desire to win every single pot.

What would you do? #173 - Holding TPTK on a 3bet PF pot

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $21.00
UTG+2: $54.40
MP1: $50.00
MP2: $15.15
Hero (CO): $116.60
BTN: $65.50
SB: $50.00
BB: $84.10 - 18 / 13/ 100% steal / 4.8% 3bet / 6.0 AF / 46 hands (stats AFTER hand below)
UTG: $42.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ac Kd
1 fold, UTG+1 requests TIME, 4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, BB raises to $6.50, Hero calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14.50) 8d Kh Jd (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($34.50) 4s (2 players)
BB bets $17.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
I put him on AK, AA, JJ.  I think this is a straight-down-the-middle coin flip situation.  There are the same amount of combinations of AK as AA, JJ.  The concern I have is that I don't want this hand to have to call a stack off on the river.  I basically have a bluff catcher.  Thoughts?

Final Pot: $34.50
BB wins $32.80
(Rake: $1.70)

Driverless cars? Pshaw!

Check out the freakonomics entry on Street Smarts.  According the author, Eric A. Morris, cars are in the cards for our not-so-distance future.  I believe it; do you?  It's an interesting read if you're a techno-weenie like me!

Hand of the night - Straight flush

Nothing interesting.  I get a decent payday... nothing great, but still...

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter


Hero (UTG+2): $71.90
MP1: $90.10
MP2: $12.65
CO: $52.55
BTN: $26.45
SB: $17.30
BB: $25.00
UTG: $50.35
UTG+1: $74.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Qh Th
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, MP1 raises to $6, 5 folds, Hero calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 5h 8h Jh (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($26.75) 6d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

River: ($26.75) 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $21, Hero raises to $58.90 all in, MP1 folds
Did I get a little overzealous?  Perhaps raising to $42 gets me paid?  I figured there's not much difference between $42 & $59, so shove & make it easy...

Final Pot: $68.75
Hero wins $65.75
(Rake: $3.00)

Quick shout out to PushMonkey for the VeryJosie bounty

I played in Bam Bam & Amir's "PokerWit vs. Bam Bloggers" (linked for appreciation of the $200 overlay PokerWit added to the prize pool) tournament on Monday.  A few hands into the tournament, PushMonkey offered a bounty to knock out VeryJosie - 5 smackers!  I love a challenge (would have done it for a simple link from a blog, in fact) and was successful in getting Josie into a coin flip situation (my AJs vs. her pair of 10's) - for Josie's tournament life.  An Ace (I think) in the window sealed the deal and sent Josie to the rail.  It's the second time I've knocked out Josie, FWIW (first time was in her inaugural tournament, the Very Josie, which I will likely play again tonight - knocking her out twice in 3 days should be pretty cool).

Thank you, PushMonkey, for covering my buy in for the tournament.  Very cool!  Congratulations to the Danks for Joanne's takedown, BTW.  I was rooting for either she or Buddy (as I understand it, who took 3rd) as my second picks to Memphis Mojo to take down the thing.

What would you do? #172 - Facing flop shove holding overpair (JJ)

Bodog $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter


UTG: $53.27 - 23/7 / 22% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.1 AF / 145 hands
UTG+1: $14.75 - 19/4 / 6% steal / 0% 3bet / 1.6AF / 193 hands
MP: $29.41
CO: $24.90
BTN: $26.70
Hero (SB): $32.40
BB: $6.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with Jh Jc
UTG raises to $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.75) Tc 9c 7d (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $3.75, UTG+1 raises to $14 all in, CO folds, Hero folds, BB folds, UTG folds

Am I making more out of this than I should be?  Easy fold here, right?  I have him polarized to monster / air with the air being AK.  It's just such a weird shove; $14 into $6?   At minimum, he has 25% equity against me, but I'm weighing him far more heavily to AA,KK.  Auto fold?

Final Pot: $11.25
UTG+1 wins $10.70
(Rake: $0.55)