It checks around to me and I opt to take the free card after considering for a fleeting moment betting out. I have a gutter and a backdoor with $56 in the pot. Nothing I'm betting is going to get folds when they have a piece here - why not see a card on the turn for free with my 16% equity?
The turn is the LOVELY and BEAUTIFUL 6, completing my straight and completing a rainbow board. Bingo! Or not? MP leads out for $15 and it gets instantly raised to $75 from a fairly reasonable, affable ABC player (at least my belief at the time). This was an insta-raise, FWIW. I consider my options, know that he's VERY strong here, but contemplate a raise or call. I think about 79 as a remote possibility, which trumps my 2nd nut straight. I opt to call (this is another topic for a WWYD), and the original bettor pushes all-in for his remaining $60 even (which closes out the betting round).
The river is a 7, putting a 4 straight on the board. The aggro raiser instantly chucks out a $100 black chip.
What would you do?
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He had AK for the TPTK. I made a crying call on the river - not seeing him raising K9 in this spot like that on the turn. 97 is still in his range. Perhaps I'm making more out the hand than it's worth; he either had 97 on the turn for the better straight, or is overplaying his hand non-straight. I think I can safely make this 4 straight call and be good a very high percentage of the time. I was kicking myself later, because I should have pushed out my last $~75, but snapped it off pretty quickly. I didn't see what the MP guy had, though he was pissed that I made the call; he claimed to have made two pair by the river.
Wow. Two pair and sets are certainly in the ABC player (later described as Agro) range. At the turn, 79 smells like Poker Grump's proverbial "monster under the bed." I think you could jam there in good.
ReplyDeleteBut, when the 7 pops on the river and he still leads for $100, suddenly, the monster looks a whole lot more real. Is an ABC player value betting a floppe set n this board? Probably not. Did he raise the turn with 89 (top pair, gutshot?
If my math is right, you are in for about $82, and there is $366 in the pot . . . You have just under $200 behind? Is that 3.6 to 1 on a call? I think you have to call given the odds, although I think you are behind (or chop) most of the time....
Caveat - i suck at poker.
Just read results. Didn;t even think about the K . . . it's early, and I'm trying to work. And, also, I sort of suck at poker.
ReplyDeleteAm I missing something or did you simply make a typo? You stated
ReplyDeleteopt to call my 74ss We see an 8(!!!!) way flop of K 5 6 rainbow.
Then you said:
I opt to take the free card after considering for a fleeting moment betting out. I have a gutter and a backdoor with $56 in the pot.
4567 you have an open ended straight draw, but you said a gutter. I assume there was a spade on the flop for the backdoor flush draw. Did you mean to say open ender but typed gutter? Assuming you meant open ender would not a small bet on the flop perhaps build the pot with a decent draw and also sniff out anyone perhaps holding something big???
If I have added it up correctly there was $221 in the pot when that river card came and you said the original raiser bet $100. Hmmm less than a half pot size bet. Value bet?? or Oh shit a 4 card straight but I have to make it look half way good river bet. You did have position on him.
You said he was an ABC player so he could have top pair and looking over the final board I am thinking even K8s is a possibility. A set is also possible. In the final analysis $221 in the pot, he bets $100 making the pot $321 of course with the all-in and then you 2 there is a main pot and a side, but I think you have to call. Poker being what it is the goofy all-in probably wins.
Checking Results.......
Don't beat yourself up for not shoving. I think just calling was the correct move on your part. Along with the possible hands I said K9s was a possible so was 79s. I understand you saying you don't see him raising K9 there but then again why not? Top pair and now a gutter if he did have K9 depending on how aggro he might raise in that spot. Overall well played, playa
Unfortunately, I think I got the hand re-telling wrong. I think the hand should have been K 5 8 with the 6 on the turn. I am going back into the post and changing the layout. I was positive I had a gutter and nothing else, though I work off memory for these hand re-tellings. I find it hard to take notes on the hands while involved in the action, and writing this stuff down is a terrible give away that I'm an interested player who cares a lot. I don't want to give that away.
DeleteThe hand history has been updated. Sorry for the confusion.
DeleteI figured it was a typo of some sort. One thing is for sure. You know the difference between a gutshot and an open ender long by now lol.
ReplyDeleteThe quick flip at the end can be a tell sometimes. I figured you had him beat. I think the river call is good for information on what people are willing to bet with on a scary board and to be safe. I doubt you get a call if you re-raise all in.. I mean maybe but he has to know he is beat by then even if calling for 75 is the right mathematical move..
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment, Waffles! I didn't even realize that you still read the blogs. Thanks!
DeleteWhat I believe you're missing here is the fact that it was checked through on the flop... this increases the strength of your hand against the ranges of what people will play aggressively (think is a strong hand) on the turn. Two pairs and sets are overplaying their hands now because their checkraise attempts on the flop failed and the 6 brings more draws... I see no reason for an ABC player with 79 to instaraise here and kill action with a very secure hand in an 8 handed pot... I'm giving him credit for 2 Pair, and really liking the strength of my hand in your spot.
ReplyDeleteAnother indicator is the flop raiser is raising the pot to $75 which commits the original bettor (short stack) and aims to isolate. This (potentially) further weakens his range and gives him info from the hands behind him (which he desperately needs at this point after missing the info on the flop)...
I like flat turn and flat river... (if it's any other river I would raise)