My new table was FAR softer than the prior. I was able to work my way out of the 2 buy in hole and was actually up about 2 buy ins when the following happened (I was seated for around 4 hours a the new table):
I am dealt 9h3h in the SB and it limps around to me. I complete and the BB checks his option.
7-8 see a flop of Ah Kh 7c
It checks through to the turn Td.
I decide to get "frisky" on my flush draw. I seriously doubt anyone has ANYTHING here - they would certainly bet out the flop on a draw heavy board such as it is. I lead for $10 into the $~15 and immediately get min raised to $20 by the tight tight tight retiree to my left on the BB. We've been talking for the duration, so I know his type fairly well; he sits and waits to get paid off, and the fish, inevitably as fish do, pay him off continually. He's chipped up to $~500; as described above, I'm sitting on $800, so we're deep. I call on account of our being so deep. I have a crack at winning a lot because this guy seems to really love his hand.
River is 6h
I fire out $50
He raises to $150 and says "I'm gonna make it easy on you 'cause I like you. You should fold."
We've been talking quite a bit; he is a very nice guy - retired - "doesn't need the money..." yada yada yada.
What would you do?
Click to see results
The speech really confused me. Is this guy ever min raise semi-bluffing? Is he ever min raising without really good goods? Min raising can mean a set, or more likely (he'd raise AA,KK, probably not TT,77 though) TT,77 is a possibility. He'd min raise QJ. Those are the hands that I'm beating.
Is he min raising Qxhh? I can't see it. I started talking aloud and going through the hand possibilities. I'm doubtful he'd raise the limp pot turn with a naked Jh Xh or Qh Xh. He was in the BB, so his range is open. However, he clearly loves his hand. What does he have?
Not gonna say what he had because I'm curious about your speculation. What would you do and what did he have? First guy to get it wins 50 Seals with Clubs chips.
He's got aces. He's not putting you on a flush draw either. (since you got "frisky").
ReplyDeleteLet me add a few rules:
ReplyDelete1. One guess per person.
2. Contest will end 12:00PM tomorrow (2013-04-09).
I like contests...lol. The only hand I am worried about here is QJhh. Interesting spot. My inner nit says when a tight old guy raises me I should pitch it. But I think my hand and action is so disguised I am calling. It's a call.
ReplyDeleteDoes this casino have some sort of jackpot / high hand bonus payout? If so, then I could see a tight old guy doing this with QhJh and checking the flop. He turns the nuts, and (in his mind) value-min-raises, but not enough to scare you off with anything, so that if the Th hits the river, he gets the bonus. When the 6h falls, he still has the nuts.
ReplyDeleteHow long did he take to re-raise you? How long did you take to bet out?
You should fold, I'm putting him on QJ of hearts. He raised you on the turn because even if the heart came he had the nuts and I'm sure he min raised just to keep you in hoping a heart did come.
ReplyDeleteBy the way for what it's worth this is my favorite blog. Thanks for putting it up.
ReplyDeleteIt was a snap raise - and there is a casino bonus for a Royal Flush.
ReplyDeleteAdditional rule: I can't give out the chips if you're Anonymous. I have no way of knowing who you are. If you're going to make a guess, post via an email or identity of some sort.
ReplyDeleteAnd thank you for the comment about this being your favorite blog. I am truly flattered. That's the first time I've received a comment like that & I take it to heart. Thank you!
I hope this blog has helped your game as well - while you read the ramblings I put out there.
Since I can't pick QhJh (already been picked a few times), I'll go with ThTx. I would make a crying call (hoping he doesn't have the bigger flush) You are getting 2.5 to 1 ($100 call to win $256) and I think that there is better than a 50/50 chance he either has a set or smaller flush.
ReplyDeleteIn my experience, he almost always has it in this spot but sometimes these old guys are smart enough to know how you view them and get little tricky - maybe not often enough to make the call, but close.
The old guy has queen jack both hearts
ReplyDeleteOld man says he has the nuts, guess what? He's got the nuts.
ReplyDeleteI say he has a straight, only one heart.
ReplyDelete6c 4d. This is the hand he discovers that he's beginning to go senile.
ReplyDeleteThis is a tough one as he's got a lot of conflicting info going on. Old man = nit usually. Speech = strong usually. Talking you out of calling = weak usually. It sounds to me like he also has a flush, but not the nut flush. I'm putting him on something like 10/Jh or J/9h, both of which have you beat. Though I'd really HATE to fold here, I think this is a fold.
ReplyDeletePatrick
Alright, since it hasn't been taken yet --- I'll go ahead and guess 89hh. I would call in this spot ---
ReplyDeleteI have the 9h, which complicated the issue. I have the 3rd nuts in such an unlikely spot.
DeleteAnonymous wins the chips. He correctly guessed QhJh. Brian was on the right track, but opted for the call (disbelieving QJhh).
ReplyDeleteVillain in this case was actually a genuinely nice guy. I think he plays for the enjoyment of the comradery of the game. He's not worried about money and therefore I was inclined to believe his speech to top off the strong inclination to fold.
In fact, as I was talking aloud through the hand while deciding call / fold, I immediately focused on QJhh. I just couldn't believe it though - it would be so sick for him to show up with that [particularly but incorrectly] in the BB. He can show up with QJhh in any position on the table, so why not in the BB on a limped pot? It makes sense.
I rarely see a guy like this getting out of line - in fact, I can't seem him even raising QhTh in this spot given his position to the table. He's not a semi-bluffer; he's a nuts or fold / call kinda guy, which is fairly typical.
FWIW, he showed me the cards, so I had visual confirmation. I was contacted via email as to who Anonymous is, so I will be getting his SWC user id and shipping the 50 chips tonight when I get home.
Thanks for the participation - I hope to offer more contests like this in the future. It's great to get lots of comments!
There are two anonymouses (anonymi?) on this board...I'm the first one, who posted at 12:08pm, and the first one who guessed QhJh. The next anonymous at 12:16pm isn't me. I don't know if you can check ip addresses, but it doesn't matter at all since I don't play online! So the chips will be put to far better use by the other guy/gal.
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to get the credit for the first right answer though!
Well that settles that; I think you're the "fair" winner but I had incorrectly put the anonymous poster to the email. However, I'm glad that it's okay by you. I just shipped the chips to a guy that does play online.
DeleteThanks for the comment and congrats on the win. Congrats on the win to both of you.
Damn I guessed right but was a little too late, lol Oh well a day late and a dollar short, lol
ReplyDelete