Thursday, April 4, 2013

WHAT? Bitcoin is up to $~142?!?!??!

Just 1-2 weeks ago, I was selling bitcoins I earned at the virtual felt for $75!  Don't I feel like an idiot when I check out the latest going rate for BTC was $142 - nearly double what I sold it for 2 weeks ago!?!??!

I continue to keep grinding away at Seals With Clubs, but I'm beginning to wonder what will happen as the price of BTC continues to rise - or stays at its current levels.  The lowest current offering is a 1/1 NLHE game.  Each chip is worth 1/1000 of a BTC.  I'm no math genius, but my spidey skills say that each chip is worth $0.14 meaning that a full buy in at 1/1 is playing bigger stakes than 10NL - $14.00.  I'd imagine that for a lot of people, the buy in has become too big and they're becoming dissuaded from playing on the site.

I fear that the prior "easy money" games at the lower stakes will dry up with the rise in the price.  I'm worried that a lot of the players have "BTC inventory" if you will, having bought the BTC prior to its recent run-up.  I have to become used to getting paid off on most every hand - flopping sets on an A high board and stacking a mouthbreather thinking his A2o is good - not only stacking off, but calling off an all in shove raise. 

On the other hand, I'm seriously wondering whether I should be cashing in or holding my extra BTC.  As I continue to grind, I'm adding an increasing amount of coins, selling as I get them.  Should I be holding my "investment" for greater returns later?  I've heard reports talking about how bitcoin is expected to rise to $1,000 - wouldn't that be a huge coup?  Over the past month or so, the going rate for the coin has risen around 6% PER DAY!  WTF?!?!?!?

As with real life investing, I've always taken the approach of dollar cost averaging - to date, I've tried to take the same approach with bitcoin; as I get the BTC, I've sold them periodically at the different price points.  I'm thinking I'm going to stray from that prior course of action and see how many coins I can accumulate and hold.

Finally, I'm rarely posting hand histories, so I wanted to share a hand where I didn't get paid [a rarity].  I was hoping the villian hit a straight on the turn, or had any hand - he called my flop bet.  I wasn't able to extract much of anything for the royal flush, and the high hand promotion has gone away.  I checked the Cardschat odds for hitting a royal flush and it seems to be 649,739:1.  According to Wikipedia, those are pretty crazy odds.  It's highly unlikely.  The weirdest part is I've played around 1.2 million hands, yet hit 3-4 royals lifetime.  I guess I run good at my royal flush per hand played ratio...

Perhaps you have alternate opinions as to how I could have played this hand a bit better.  It obviously plays pretty easy once I hit the royal - my second or third [online] lifetime royal.  Certainly, this counts as my first royal since I won the $800 for hitting the live royal flush at Charles Town a few months back.  Check it out:

Game: NL Hold'em (40 - 200) - Blinds 1/2
Site: Seals With Clubs
Table: NLHE 9max 1/2 #6
Seat 1: WXXXXe (177)
Seat 2: mXXXXc (201)
Seat 3: lXXXXXe (94)
Seat 4: fXXXXXr (312)
Seat 6: mXXXXa (259)
Seat 7: DXXXXw (172)
Seat 8: kXXXXXe (182)
Seat 9: KXXpFloppin (772)
mXXXa has the dealer button
DXXXXw posts small blind 1
kXXXXe posts big blind 2
** Hole Cards **
Dealt to KXXpFloppin [Tc Kc]
KXXpFloppin calls 2
WXXXXXe folds
mXXXXc calls 2
lXXXXe folds
fXXXXr folds
mXXXXa folds
DXXXXw calls 1
kXXXXe checks
** Flop ** [Qc Th Ac]
DXXXXw checks
kXXXXe checks
KXXpFloppin bets 8
mXXXXc calls 8
DXXXXw folds
kXXXXe folds
** Turn ** [Jc]
KXXpFloppin checks
mXXXXc checks
** River ** [4d]
KXXpFloppin bets 100
mXXXXc folds
KXXpFloppin refunded 100
KXXpFloppin wins Pot (24)
Rake (0)
KXXpFloppin shows [Tc Kc]


  1. I am a pretty inexperienced poker player, but I don't understand the principle of betting 100 on the river with only 24 in the pot. What can he call the 100 with? Even if he has the straight he might be scared of the flush. If he has the flush, he might be scared of a bigger flush. Do you get paid 4x the pot very often in that spot? I would think betting 1/2 to 3/4 of the pot might get you a call if he has a naked Ace or something like that. What do you think? Should I be more aggressive on the river and try to entice a huge pot, or be happy trying to get villan to put anything in the pot? Thanks.

    1. Not a problem. The idea here is that there are a lot of players on SWC who play level 1 poker in that the J on the turn hits to many second best hands. There aren't many flushes out there, but I think any flush is snap calling there; it's a 3flush. Any of the 3 Kings makes a straight. Two pairs are possible; QJ, Ax, etc.

      I have gotten paid often by overbetting in this kind of spot by precisely those types of hands listed above; hands that will call any but check through the river. Betting half to 3/4 does not really amount to much of anything net result...

      I look at it this way: if I can get a 2 pair or better to call any to an overbet at least 33% of the time (and unscientifically, I'd imagine it north of 50% in reality), then I net 33 chips for every 100 into 24 overbet. If I bet 75% (18 chips) and get called 50% of the time, I net 9 chips for every 18 into 24. Even if I get called 75% of the time, I net 13.5 for every bet. I'd much rather take the risk of the fish being "able to fold a good hand" to win 33 over winning 13.5. Long run, I make more money with the overbet. I think I just got "unlucky" with him not showing up with a K, two pair nor a random flush.

      FWIW, at these levels, they're not folding a made flush - like... ever...

  2. I get the BTC, I've sold them periodically at the different price points.

    I would agree with this strategy. Don't be too greedy. They go down as well as up, and, in fact, could go WAY down. My two cents.

  3. Buy high and sell low. Do I have that right? : o )


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