Tuesday, February 15, 2011

What would you do? #222 - Aces up facing river AI raise

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $104.60
CO: $50.00 - 14/10 / 3.1%3bet / 25% steal (21% in the CO) / 1.9AF / 54% W$SD @ 2.4k hands
BTN: $86.95
SB: $22.35
Hero (BB): $147.90
UTG: $14.00
UTG+1: $57.35
UTG+2: $17.50
MP1: $24.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 2s As
5 folds, CO raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, Hero calls $1
I call with a reasonable speculative hand, given the steal attempt and the SB juice.

Flop: ($4.50) Ad 8h 7h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $3, SB folds, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($10.50) 2h (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

River: ($23.50) Tc (2 players)
Hero bets $8.75, CO requests TIME, CO raises to $39 all in, Hero ???

Click to see results

Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

I think this is a bet / fold rather than check / call for a few reasons:
1. If I check and he checks his AK, Ax behind, I've gotten $6.50 of value out of my turned Aces up. If he doesn't show up with a flush, I think he calls this smallish bet.
2. If I check / call, I've gotten no information going into the river; if he chooses to open ship on me, I'm in a terrible spot where I have absolutely no information about his holdings.

I know... #2 is kinda weak. Regardless, I'm pretty certain that this is a fold because I don't think he's raising a river lead without the flush. I think any Ax (or even sets) are going to call behind for fear of the turned flush. I'm almost certain that he has AhQh by the river. It's a shame it took me $17 to figure that out, but at least I save a buy in here...

Final Pot: $41.00
CO wins $38.95
(Rake: $2.05)


  1. as evidence that I may improving as a poker player, I initially thought "fold" after reading just the title of your post. I'll stick with "fold" after reading the hand history.

    I like the bet/fold on the river also. There is still value to be had with your two pair, and most players can't bluff raise without a flush here. I think his raise tells you all you need to know.

  2. I agree with your logic and decision to fold, but I'm not a fan of how you played it. Your river donk screams I like my hand but don't love it and will probably fold to a shove. You'd never bet so small with a flush, certainly not a nut flush.

    When you turn the two pair, I think you should lead. This will also allow you to lead with flushes & with bluffs/semi-bluffs w/o giving away the strength of your hand. It also makes your value range wider than just flushes, meaning they can't just bluff catch easily w/ any ace.

    This line would also allow you to bet/fold with a more reasonable sized bet on the river. You would get value from weaker hands, but also be confident they have a flush when they raise you on the river. Basically, this line lets you dictate the bets that go in.

    The only difficult part to this line is if he raises your lead on the turn. Then, you'll need to evaluate his stats, bet sizing, speed, etc to figure out if you are ahead. In general, I'd probably fold to most raises from most players. I would expect small raises to be polarized, but still weighted much more heavily toward flushes. I'd expect big raises/shoves to be big Aces with a flush draw, J9, sets, or 2 pair

  3. bet turn 100%...as played b/f 14-15 OTR

  4. I disaggree that with Anonymous because like 1% of the 50nl regs would bluff raise this river just because of his bet size. Most players are going to freak out and just call. I like the play and agree with the fold.

    I also do not like leading this turn with such a good hand. I would lead it with AT type hands, to represent a flush but have a back up of the one pair if I get called by a worse A.

    Seems like a lot of advice for this hand is for balance and merging stuff. From my experience the player pool at 50nl is too large to worry with this stuff. Take lines that will either make you the most money or win you the pot or save you money. Whatever plan fits the situation.


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