Monday, February 7, 2011

What would you do? #220 - Tale of a donkey

FWIW, it seems that the games are FAR softer at the beginning of the month than the end of the month.  Therefore, I've started to pick up my 50NL game once again.

Are you giving respect or are you stacking off?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1156219
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $77.20 - 50/29 / 22.2%3bet @ 24 hands with inf aggression factors and completely off the chart aggro stats
MP2: $58.75
CO: $50.00
BTN: $59.05
Hero (SB): $66.90
BB: $48.00
UTG: $53.75
UTG+1: $50.00

CO posts a big blind ($0.50)

Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is SB with Jd Jc
2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1, BTN calls $1.50, Hero raises to $6.25, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $77.20 all in, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, 1 fold

Final Pot: $16.00
MP1 wins $16.00

I have no idea where I am in the hand.  I squeeze from the SB seeing all of the overlimpers come along, but get caught.  132BB effective stacks - I think this is such a narrow coin flip; he could have anything from QQ+ to 22+ to AK, AQ.  Stove tells me that against that range, I'm a 62.5% favorite.

However, is he really shoving 22+?  Perhaps TT+ is more likely, and I become a 46.9% dog.  Such a coin flip solely because of his donkish aggro stats.  Throw in 99+ to the mix and it becomes a coin flip.  What do you think?  What is his range?
Posted by The Poker Meister at 2/07/2011 08:00:00 AM
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4 comments:

  1. BrianFebruary 7, 2011 at 9:32 AM

    I don't 3 bet fold JJ to a 50/29. I'm either flatting here and taking a flop IP or 3b calling. His range as a 50/29 is pretty wide I have to think. Like to see his fold to 3b but this overshove looks like pairs up to TT and big Aces IMO. SHitty players like this don't overshove AA-KK IMO.

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  2. matt tagFebruary 7, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    Very close. These aggro tards usually give away their money quick, so you want to get it while you can.

    I say fold, mainly because of the small number of hands you have. If you had double the number of hands, I probably call here. The issue is that 22% three bet probably represents only one opportunity

    QQ I call for sure.

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  3. AnonymousFebruary 7, 2011 at 11:28 AM

    I think you are underestimating the amount of pure trash in his range. He may very well be 4bet shipping all A rag hands because he heard somebody talking about blockers, or he liked the nerve of Joseph Choeng in the ME. Yeah, he might be shipping QQ here, but I tend to doubt AA & KK. Against almost any range you can come up with where QQ is the only hand that dominates you, you should be snap calling. I think that was a terrible fold.

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  4. Poker JFebruary 7, 2011 at 2:50 PM

    I think this is always AK, AA or KK and sometimes QQ. Fish do not want to play post flop when they know they are good now.

    He is also thinking, I can't just call because these other guys will call. I do not know what to raise to so I just click this MAX button.

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