Friday, February 4, 2011

What would you do? #219 - $35K Guarantee Tournament ITM

Line check: Is this ever a good move to call / stack off?

Full Tilt Poker $35,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1000/t2000 Blinds + t250 - 8 players
The Hand History Converter

MP1: t57927         M = 11.59
Hero (MP2): t39872         M = 7.97 - I haven't been out of line
CO: t71145         M = 14.23  - a 20/17 / ~3% 3bet over roughly 90 hands
BTN: t98802         M = 19.76
SB: t62954         M = 12.59
BB: t90990         M = 18.20
UTG: t20910         M = 4.18
UTG+1: t68493         M = 13.70

Pre Flop: (t5000) Hero is MP2 with Ad Kd
3 folds, Hero raises to t5000, CO raises to t15575, 3 folds, Hero raises to t39622 all in, CO calls t24047

Flop: (t84244) 9c 7h Tc (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t84244) 6c (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t84244) Jc (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t84244
Hero shows Ad Kd (Ace King high)
CO shows Kc Kh (a flush, King high)
CO wins t84244

I am going back & forth between flatting / taking a flop and looking for an Ace or a King, or shipping like I did.  In fact, it's conceivable that I find the fold button.  I'd imagine this hand will get mixed reviews and there is no correct answer.  FWIW, I'm not asking the question because he shows up with KK.  I'm asking the question if it's okay to stack off 20BB "late-ish" in a tournament (89 remain out of 1400+) with AKs.


  1. I like either a 4bet ship or a fold here. I think flatting for almost 40% of your stack and folding if you don't hit the flop would be atrocious. Based on the size of his raise and his low 3bet%, if think this is probably a fold, but not by much. I certainly can't fault you for sticking it in. You could use some chips at some point if you want to try to final table/win the thing.

    In your spot, I would flat JJ+, and jam over cbets when you flop an overpair. I would never flat a hand w/o a pair.

  2. With 20bb I get this in pretty much every time. Just don't flat the 3b

  3. I would also ship it. You have to win hands like this to win the tournament, and that's your goal. Notice he had a nightmare hand for you (K-K), yet you still were about 30% to win the pot.

  4. The part that has me questioning myself is not whether to ship it against most players. The issue I have is that these tourneys are UNBELIEVABLY soft - for example, last night, I was got myself an all in on the TURN vs. a flush drawing opponent at the 120 blind level, where he all-inned for 30BBs. On a flush draw. And he got there.

    Point is, against this type of player, obviously conservative, is there a need to take the risk of being at worst 50/50? I feel as though there are WAY higher equity spots vs. much easier targets.

    FWIW, I've been running terribly in these tourneys - I usually keep a log in the event that I do make it deep. The things you see just have you shaking your head in horror, and the variance you experience is like none other. For example, during the above example's tournament, on 2 hands prior to the above, I was all in with AKs vs. K8s and he spiked an 8 (like duh), and later AQs vs. AJo and he spiked a J (ldo). This type of variance has been continual for me. Mark my words, though - I'm going to take down one of these nightly guarantees. The play is simply too bad not to take one down.


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