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What would you do? #207 - Deep stacked holding overpair

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $50.00
BB: $49.00
UTG: $72.40 - 15/8/1.7%3bet / 50% steal / 5.5AF / 100% cbet flop
UTG+1: $52.25
Hero (MP1): $122.40 - Note that we're 150BB deep!
MP2: $93.60
CO: $78.65
BTN: $16.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with Kc Kd
UTG raises to $1.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.50, 5 folds, UTG calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.75) 2h 2s 8h (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG calls $6.50

Turn: ($24.75) Jc (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($24.75) 3s (2 players)
UTG bets $60.40 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero folds
I can't imagine him slow playing this way without holding / flopping a set and / or quads. Can I ever call this without the boat?

BTW, my check on the turn is for pot control. I'm not looking to get in stacks here.

The following is copied from the comments below, because I wanted to commit it to the post permanently:

Glad you responded, Hoy. Given your latest detail, I understand your argument; it's hard to tell that from the original 3 lines.

However, here's my thoughts as far as the fold is concerned: We each have ~25BB vested in the pot here when he shoves. From the top: He's a 15/8 who has called an MP1 3bet, OOP... mind you he opened from UTG. Given his 50% steal, let's consider his UTG range as tighter than his CO+ range; i.e. he's positionally aware. I can ascertain that a 15/8's UTG... let alone a 15/8's non-steal range in general... is fairly tight; limited to AK, 88+. Let's expand his 3bet calling range to the same range as his opening range because we're deep and he feels he can stack me with the right flop. So assume his range to be AK, 88+ on the call.

Moving on, we see a fairly innocuous flop; minimal draws (2 hearts), on a paired board (best flop anyone can hope for given any pocket pair). He "floats" my half pot bet; any of us would be justified in doing so with any & all pocket pairs 33+. He has 88+ where the flop hits the bottom of his range, and he's sitting pretty against my supposed AK. He's OOP, but the flop does not hit my 3bet range, and it marginally hit his 3bet calling range (i.e. 88 & AA are the hands that have me beat here).

The turn is checked through, which absolutely hits the middle of his 3bet calling range (JJ). To him, a Jack likely does not change anything for all of his pairs 33+; again, unless I'm 3betting AJ (not likely), he views himself as still ahead of my Ax 3betting range. However, if lead the turn, I'm fairly certain I get either flatted once again, or check / raised by hands that beat me and are trying to get stacks in.

However, given that line, I have to check the river. I simply don't believe he can call a large river bet with hands that don't beat me, with the exception of squarely QQ. Perhaps I bet a small 1/3 pot on the river to get value from the middling PPs that have come along, but we'll go with the path I have taken...

The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."

Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.

Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.

Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.

The river comes in as bricky as you can get. No draws completed. My plan at this point was to bet a $12-15 bet on the river to value town the small pocket pair hands that are in his 3bet calling range and will likely make a hero call... However, he chooses to auto ship. Again, I refer to the above, though; he's a somewhat thinking player at worst; he's positionally aware. Do you really think he puts me squarely on KK or AA or [less so] QQ and says "I'm going to get this MF'er off his hand by putting out a bet that only JJ can call!" or do you think he puts me on QQ KK AA and says "I'm going to make this guy pay full value for a hand he can't lay down... He's not calling a $25 bet just as soon as he's not calling a $60 bet with AK, so if I shove here, I'll get a call from those hands and a fold from hands I would have folded with any bet anyway." Perhaps there is a last thought, "I have QQ, or [less so] 99, TT and I'm going to value town this guy. I have no idea what he has, but I know I got him beat. Maybe there's a chance that he'll call my shove."

Argument A: Very very good players can do this. If he knows exactly what I'm capable of; i.e. trusts that I can lay down mid- monster hands to river shoves, then I certainly got owned and I need to adjust to this particular player because clearly, he is way out of the 50NL league. He's thinking on a different level whereby he's got my style completely pegged and can read me perfectly. However, I think even the best of players may be a little confused here because of my check on the turn, so I doubt argument A.

Argument B: I've seen this move plenty of times; hell I'm usually on the giving end of this move. When you make the call, you're face palming because you made an instant retard reflex reaction. How can he have KK beat? Well, he sucked out on the turn. Duh! Or, how can he have KK beat? Well he slow played AA! Duh! Not saying I think he slow plays AA, because I have less confidence in that hand than any of the other hands I put him on.

Argument C: I think this is the argument you're making. And this may be the way NL is played at the 2, 5, and 10 levels, but definitely not at 25 and moreso 50. I'm not seeing it at 100... this is just a complete spaz from a 15/8. I'm not going to say it never happens, but it RARELY happens.

Two final closing remarks:

I stoved the ranges... if you're interested, click the link:

ev++ Poker Tools Odds Calculation

I used AhKh and 88+ as the ranges vs. my hand. It gave me a 61/39 equity calc... a lot closer than even I anticipated prior to calculating the ranges.

The pot was only $25; 25BB's each. Really? UTG is risking 120BBs to win 25BBs. He needs to make this move 5 times [successfully] in order to show a profit. You think it's a good bet that he'll get caught if he does it at least one of those next 4 times? It just seems like a HUGE risk for a small reward.

Smells much more like value than bluff to me...

Final Pot: $24.75
UTG wins $23.55
(Rake: $1.20)

What would you do? #206 - TPGK against a LAGgy 2/3 pot river bet

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $50.00
MP2: $51.50
CO: $40.75
BTN: $31.80
SB: $50.00
BB: $65.95 - 35 / 8 / 7.7% 3bet / 17% steal / 2.4AF / 42 hands
UTG: $54.25
Hero (UTG+1): $61.90

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with Ks Qc
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BTN calls $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 6h 5d Qs (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BTN folds, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.75) Js (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $5

River: ($29.75) 6d (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
A little background: In the 42 hands, he has yet to check / raise ever. It's just such an odd spot for a check / raise on the turn. Even so, are you making the call on the river?


Click to see results

Hero folds
I just can't see him wanting to stack off with anything less than QJ, which is what I suspect. There are a few draws on the turn, but I can't see him c/r'ing the turn with draws. This is such a marginal fold against a total LAGbot...

Final Pot: $29.75
BB wins $28.30
(Rake: $1.45)

What would you do? #205 - Bluffed off a monster or set over set?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $59.80
UTG: $57.25 - 12/8/ 2.2% 3bet / 21% steal / 2.6AF @ 807 hands
UTG+1: $68.50
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $89.40
Hero (MP2): $52.90
CO: $40.15
BTN: $70.15
SB: $21.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Qh Qc
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $2, 4 folds
I flat here, somewhat to set mine, somewhat knowing that I have position. My thought by flatting is that he's folding hands that I beat, and 4betting hands that beat me.  A 12/8 raising UTG is a fairly strong move.  He cbets 24% of his hands, FWIW.

Flop: ($4.75) 3h Qd Ts (2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $8, UTG calls $5
By his cbet lead, I'm assuming he has a good hand, so I want to raise for value. Also, in the off chance he's on a straight draw, I want to ensure that I charge him for his draw.  I'm not looking to blow him off of his gutshot / 2 overs hands.  I feel strongly that he'd come over the top if he flopped a set of Tens.

Turn: ($20.75) Ad (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12
Worst card in the deck (coupled with the Jack)! He calls the flop raise, indicating a pretty specific range of hands (i.e. AA, KK, TT, AK), and donks the turn. WTF? Should I be laying this hand down, or am I in for the stacks?  Perhaps the setup for the WWYD is right here.  Assuming the river is a non-Jack, the river card will not change anything in relation to the hand.

River: ($44.75) 2c (2 players)
UTG bets $35.25 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $30.90 all in
At this point, I believe my hand is a bluff catcher. I don't think he's doing this with AK. I just can't see him raising in EP with KJ, and I don't think he's pushing with AA and the possible straight out there. I think he's bet / calling, but not shipping.  I also think he's check / raising the turn with AA rather than donking.  Therefore, I make the call thinking I beat bluffs and flopped sets of Ten (less likely) vs. losing to the turned 2-outter AA set.

Final Pot: $106.55
UTG shows Js Jd (a pair of Jacks)
Hero shows Qh Qc (three of a kind, Queens)
Hero wins $103.55
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #204 - Give ze man his moneyz?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $50.50
Hero (CO): $97.55
BTN: $17.50
SB: $48.50
BB: $39.20 - 40/1/0%3bet / 0%steal / 2.3AF / 68 hands
UTG: $20.00
UTG+1: $50.00
UTG+2: $15.00
MP1: $58.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Qs Ad
5 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) Tc 5h Qh (2 players)
BB bets $2.50, Hero raises to $6.50, BB calls $4

Turn: ($16.25) 5s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB calls $9

River: ($34.25) 5d (2 players)
BB bets $22.20 all in, Hero ???


Click to see results

Hero calls $22.20

Final Pot: $78.65
Hero mucks Qs Ad
BB shows Kd Kc (a full house, Fives full of Kings)
BB wins $75.65
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #203 - Deep stacked with an unknown facing a turn overbet shove

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $124.10
BB: $26.60
UTG: $31.30
UTG+1: $180.05
UTG+2: $40.85
MP1: $76.95 - 38/13/1.0AF @ 8 hands
MP2: $94.80
Hero (CO): $84.80
BTN: $151.70

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ad Kh
3 folds, MP1 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $4.50, 3 folds, MP1 calls $3.50

Flop: ($9.75) 7d As 6c (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $5, MP1 calls $5

Turn: ($19.75) 6s (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $12.50, MP1 raises to $67.45 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???



Click to see results

Hero calls $54.95
My thought is this: I have 8 hands on the guy , and this is a pretty dry flop. If he hit a set of 7's or 6's on the flop, so be it, but is he overbet shoving the turn for value? More than likely, he's min raising, or 2.5x with the intention of shoving the river instead.

I also started thinking about 6x hands, but I think it fairly unlikely for him to continue to my decent flop lead... Unlikely, though not unheard of. Therefore, I certainly considered the 6x hands as well, but ruled them out for the same reason of the set type hands.

Summed up, I make the call for the deep stacks.

River: ($154.65) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $154.65
MP1 shows Ac 4c (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero shows Ad Kh (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
Hero wins $151.65
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #202 - Overbet for value

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $119.10
UTG+1: $53.60
UTG+2: $45.20
MP1: $62.55
MP2: $58.60
CO: $40.00
BTN: $129.20
Hero (SB): $112.95
BB: $51.85 - 13 / 8 / 1.6%3bet / 25% steal / 2.7 AF / 725 hands

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Ts 9d
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($1.50) 8d Qc 6h (3 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25, MP2 folds

Turn: ($4.00) 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB raises to $5.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $4.75
I think he pretty clearly has a set at this point. Set or two pair; I don't think he's folding either way.

River: ($24.00) Kd (2 players)
Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $101.20 all in, BB calls $40.10 all in
And I hit him with the overbet.

Final Pot: $104.20
Hero shows Ts 9d (a straight, Ten high)
BB mucks 8h 8s
Hero wins $101.20
(Rake: $3.00)

What would you do? #201 - Bet / fold or check / fold?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $189.95
UTG: $54.15
UTG+1: $69.45
UTG+2: $50.00
MP1: $20.75
Hero (MP2): $90.90
CO: $48.40
BTN: $50.00 - 15 / 12 / 5.2% 3bet / 20% steal / 7% sqz / 2.9AF @ 235 hands
SB: $26.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Jd Kd
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BTN raises to $3.75, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($8.25) 6d Ah 6c (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($8.25) 9d (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

River: ($18.25) Ad (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $41.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds
The question is did I simply waste $10 or is this a insta-fold? I think the hand starts off screwed up where I call the 3bet, but this guy's 3bet on the button was around 10%.

Final Pot: $38.25
BTN wins $36.35
(Rake: $1.90)