Monday, April 16, 2012

An unlucky outcome but still a good move

What do you think of this line?

Limped pot, I'm on the BTN and limp along with Q5s (live 1/2, $1050 stack size; have everyone at the table [easily] covered).

Flop comes Q Q 3 rainbow.  Checks around to me, and I lead for $5 into a 6x$2=$12 pot.  I get a call from the most readable guy there; definition of calling station, who will call HUGE bets down to the river with any and all pairs, and totally passive.

Turn is a 5, and I'm convinced that he has a Q and will call any bet.  He checks to me and I'm not yet thinking out of the box; I bet $25 into the now $24 pot.  He calls.

River is a 7 and he leads for $30.  He has $300 behind.

I shove the $300 effective into the $100 pot - he INSTANTLY calls and shows Q7 for the rivered better boat.

I just think there's so many hands that he's calling a shove here, without the nuts.  I think this is profitable, though unlucky that he hit his [second time on the night against me] 6%.

What do you think of the overbet for value?  No matter, in this case it would have been the same outcome (i.e. if I go through the more standard raise / re-raise / shove process), but he's clearly check / calling his weak Q as a bluff catcher, and will call off tons of $$$ with the non-nuts bluff catch.  Same could be said if the river double paired the board with a 3.  I think that in these situations, you need to extract max. pain against the loose / passives who are happily calling you down "just to see."

The hand earlier in the night, I flopped TPTK where I raised to $15 PF and he called his T6s (WTF?).  Flop is J T x and I got 3 streets of value on him when he hit his 6 on the river for 2 pair (he check / called my $45 river bet, which I debated checking through).

Sigh...  That hand above was the difference of a $1200 winner (which would have been single session tops in my short live poker career), vs. $500 winner on the night...  Oh well.


  1. From what you said the river did not change anything about that hand.. and yet he all of a sudden perks up and places a decent sized bet... I think you possibly could have gotten away from the hand but it's a very difficult fold. ABC, readable players are not putting money in on the river there with the 7...

    I think that is just one of those trouble hands that kind of get you mostly when you limp the BB because nobody raised. :P.

  2. My line of thought is that the player calls a limped flop bet, and then calls a large-ish turn bet. I am sure he has a Q in his hand, and when he leads the river, he has a very good Q - or perhaps 3's full, etc.

    I still think that there's a TON of non-nut hands that the calling station snap calls the overbet shove on the river, which is why I pushed such a large bet out there. I think I got unlucky in that he 3 outted me, but I still think he's calling all ranges of Q hands in this spot. I guess, long run, is this a profitable move against this player? I know that online, this is a profitable move, and that's kinda where I got the idea from.

  3. I think you had a good read on the villain and (considering that) played it perfectly.

  4. This is one of those times where you just have to pay the man. You can't just wait to have it stone-cold; you have to move in with a monster, even if it can be beat.

    Like you said, the right move, the wrong outcome.

  5. Great hand imo. I would probably actually bet more on the flop though as I've always found live players are less inclined to give you such a credit for a strong hand when you bet bigger. The overbet on the turn is good and the river shove is perfect. He's never folding Qx given your read and he can also have 33/55/77/Q3 (ok 77 unlikely but still possible given your read). He could also be the hero and call with worse.

  6. My thoughts exactly - there are so many more hands than the [1] hand that beats me who are absolutely calling my overbet for value shove on the river. I think these spots create maximum value because he's never c/r ing anything; he's a passive fish who loves to call call call. I think a river shove is no different than a river $100 bet in this situation; he either doesn't believe me or he does.

  7. If he's got a weakish hand he might actually believe a $100 bet more than a shove.

  8. You could have mitigated some of your losses IMO, high bet but wait for him to make the move on your 3/4-potsized bet and get a read on him. Paired boards can make or break people, don't be so greedy if you're already cruising with such a big stack.


  9. full house + Live poker fish = easy shove for value Doubt villain is folding any Q there


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