What do you think of this line?
Limped pot, I'm on the BTN and limp along with Q5s (live 1/2, $1050 stack size; have everyone at the table [easily] covered).
Flop comes Q Q 3 rainbow. Checks around to me, and I lead for $5 into a 6x$2=$12 pot. I get a call from the most readable guy there; definition of calling station, who will call HUGE bets down to the river with any and all pairs, and totally passive.
Turn is a 5, and I'm convinced that he has a Q and will call any bet. He checks to me and I'm not yet thinking out of the box; I bet $25 into the now $24 pot. He calls.
River is a 7 and he leads for $30. He has $300 behind.
I shove the $300 effective into the $100 pot - he INSTANTLY calls and shows Q7 for the rivered better boat.
I just think there's so many hands that he's calling a shove here, without the nuts. I think this is profitable, though unlucky that he hit his [second time on the night against me] 6%.
What do you think of the overbet for value? No matter, in this case it would have been the same outcome (i.e. if I go through the more standard raise / re-raise / shove process), but he's clearly check / calling his weak Q as a bluff catcher, and will call off tons of $$$ with the non-nuts bluff catch. Same could be said if the river double paired the board with a 3. I think that in these situations, you need to extract max. pain against the loose / passives who are happily calling you down "just to see."
The hand earlier in the night, I flopped TPTK where I raised to $15 PF and he called his T6s (WTF?). Flop is J T x and I got 3 streets of value on him when he hit his 6 on the river for 2 pair (he check / called my $45 river bet, which I debated checking through).
Sigh... That hand above was the difference of a $1200 winner (which would have been single session tops in my short live poker career), vs. $500 winner on the night... Oh well.
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