Friday, March 18, 2011

What would you do? #229 - facing a PF limp / raise

Bodog $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Hand History Converter

BB: $41.15
UTG: $50.41 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 3, 3B: 1, AF: 2.4, Hands: 621
UTG+1: $47.20
UTG+2: $23.50
MP1: $49.20
MP2: $17.84
Hero (CO): $65.42
BTN: $36.47
SB: $36.98

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Ts Tc
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $3.50
Since I've been playing on this site, I've been seeing a lot of face-up AA limp/raise moves, which simply don't work online.  However, given that this guy has raised before, I'm a little suspicious of his AA.  Actually, the reality is that I'm putting him on a range of AA,KK,AK - whose range obviously has me dominated.

However, if I can guarantee that he's never folding his AA,KK to an all under flop, is there ever a way of justifying this call?  In other words, if I know I'm going to stack him every time I hit my set, is this call justifiable?

I've generally been folding to the limp / raise, but I'm starting to rethink my strategy with these pocket pairs and suited connectors.

FWIW, this is an auto-fold for AK, etc.

Flop: ($12.75) Td 2h 5s (2 players)
UTG bets $11.50, Hero calls $11.50
Obviously, I'm 100% ahead here.  I flopped the nuts.  I'm so positive he has AA, KK that I call the flop bet in order to ensure that the turn is not an A or K.

The dry nature of this flop is such that there are virtually no turn cards (barring a very slight chance of a turned Ten / quads) that will push him off of his hand on the turn / river.  If he checks the turn to me, I can bet around $15-20 and push the safe river.

If I am 100% sure of his hand, and he's drawing to "4" outs (2 in reality), why not reduce my variance and take half of his odds away from him?  I am 100% confident that I can fold to a turned Ace or King (more than likely Ace, a King would be a lot harder fold for me).

Turn: ($35.75) 5c (2 players)
UTG bets $32.91, Hero calls $32.91
Easy game; I have called 3 streets and gotten stacks in.

River: ($101.57) 4s (2 players)

Final Pot: $101.57
UTG shows As Ad
Hero shows Ts Tc
Hero wins $98.57
(Rake: $3.00)

1 comment:

  1. I think the tiny size of his 3bet and his face-up range makes this preflop call ok. If he 3bets to a real amount like $8.50 I don't think you can call though.


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