Tuesday, March 15, 2011

What would you do? #228 - Thin value?

Bodog $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $49.91
BB: $48.20
UTG: $20.95
UTG+1: $39.00
MP: $48.05
Hero (CO): $241.69
BTN: $74.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 3c 4c
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1
I figure the UTG will call, and likely at least one other fish will come along.  I have position and a fit or fold speculative hand.  Easy call in my book, especially given the price of 3x.

Flop: ($6.25) 8h Tc 5d (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero checks
If this were a bet into me, this is the "fold" of the fit or fold part of the hand.  LOLaments no one leading the flop.

Turn: ($6.25) 6c (4 players)
BB bets $2.50, UTG calls $2.50, MP folds, Hero calls $2.50
Best card ever?  I turn an idiot straight draw + flush draw.  With one card to come, I'm not going crazy here, though I have a ton of outs.

River: ($13.75) 7s (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $5.00, BB calls $5, UTG calls $5
Ok.  So I have the bottom end of a 4 straight, where it is very easy for at least one of my opponents to show up with a 9.  However, my thought here is that both BB & UTG have checked through the river - are they ever allowing this hand to go to showdown when they have the nuts or second nuts?  I have to think that all 9's or better hands are at least betting some nominal amount.  They, like me, have to figure that all non-9 hands are checking through and they'll go to showdown with no value.

This is not the board to check / raise because there seems to be only very few hands that can withstand a check raise.  Therefore, my idiot end of the 4 straight *HAS* to be good.  However, my opponents are well aware that the could be far behind with me holding a straight, so my value bet has to be on the smallish side, hence the ~1/3 pot.  I'm not looking for a TON of value, but I am looking for some value.

I think a rivered club would have worked out FAR better for me, as I would have backdoored them (even though no one bet the flop) and it would have been FAR less obvious than the 4 straight.

Final Pot: $28.75
Hero shows 3c 4c (FWIW, BB had a flopped set of 8's and UTG had a rivered set of 7's)
Hero wins $27.35
(Rake: $1.40)

In retrospect, as I'm writing the commentary, I think I missed out on another $2-$4 in value.  Although I'm happy with river value, I don't love my bet sizing.  I think I could have bet $6-$7 on the river with the same check / call results.

1 comment:

  1. hard to assume sets, though, when we're considering thin value, we're usually targeting pairs. I like your bet size, I think you called more often by a wider range.


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