I call my option in the SB with QJo and the BB checks. We see a limped 5-way pot of Q J 6, rainbow.
I opt to check my top two to the BB who leads for $10 into the $10 pot. A 30ish Asian dude calls (been pretty by-the-book, though I sense he's frustrated with me because I've check / raised him a bit in the past few hands) and action folds back to me. I feel very much that he's drawing, so I c/r the pot to $45. BB folds and Asian dude thinks for a bit - before finally calling.
$110 in the pot and we see a offsuit K turn. T9, the obvious draw, just got there. Damn! I check. My opponent, again thinking for a bit, opts to check behind.
River is an Ace, completing the rainbow.
I consider a small bet for value - partial blocking, partial value. My thought here is this: villain called a largish flop check / raise but checked through the turn. There aren't many hands that he limps and calls a c/r on the flop that have an Ace in them. I think my river bet is more of a catch up from the turn check. The river card is "scary" to all non-Ten hands, so I want to make a small bet that can be called with a Qx. Therefore, I lead for $25.
Again, he thinks for a bit before finally raising to $75.
What would you do? What would you do differently?
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I feel like the turn is such a bad card for me (it completes KQ, T9, a few AT). The river makes it even worse, and much harder for him to raise without a T. Therefore, I fold. Believe me, the frustration I thought he was having with me factored in all the more for me wanting to call the $50 on top. In the end, this has to be a sick bluff for him to make - particularly with him calling the $35 c/r on the flop. By showdown, the two hands in my head that made sense here are AQ and T9, with a strong weighting towards T9.
In talking afterwards (I had shown my cards to two "respected" table mates which caused quite a discussion), we asked him. He said he had T9 and made his hand on the turn - I'm still not 100% sure that's the truth. He said that he hoped I would bet the river (like I did) when he checked the turn, feeling that I would fold the turn if he bet.
In talking afterwards (I had shown my cards to two "respected" table mates which caused quite a discussion), we asked him. He said he had T9 and made his hand on the turn - I'm still not 100% sure that's the truth. He said that he hoped I would bet the river (like I did) when he checked the turn, feeling that I would fold the turn if he bet.
I don't like any of the streets to be honest (other than pre obv). I lead this flop and turn (I might even c/r turn against right opponent some non zero % of the time). And c/f this river.
ReplyDeleteSeems really standard line.
So that was the exact debate - not so much whether to lead the flop (I'm comfortable with my c/r flop because I felt like BB would lead here). With 6 players in on the flop, I figured someone to take a stab.
DeleteThe turn was the debate - if I lead turn and get raised, do I fold? I felt like leading turn only gets called by better hands. I felt it not likely for villain, a fairly ABC player, not getting out of line, is not calling QT in this spot getting c/r'ed to $45. The flop hands I have him on are T9, KT, KQ, QJ (less so) and AQ (less so because he wasn't afraid to raise AQ PF in prior hands). He could have pure bluffs waiting for a "scare card," which is what he got, but I don't think he's that kind of player on a limped c/r'ed flop. FWIW, I think 66 tries to get it in on the flop after the c/r if possible. The K on the turn is so bad because it completes so many of his PF hands that he can call / call flop bets.
So why do you bet or c/r (as played, he checked through) the turn here? What does it accomplish? I'm assuming a bet of around $60 into the $110, which leaves me with $95 behind. Any other card in the deck (besides A, K) I can lead here. I probably lead an 8 turn for about $60 to see what happens. The King just hits everything.
Well I will concede that I am not a check/call kind of guy so that probably taints my analysis. I guess if your range is simply T9, KT, KQ then yeah c/c or even c/f makes a lot of sense (though i think we both agree that c/r flop and c/folding turn if any scare card comes is incredibly weak passive poker). I agree he doesn't have 66 in his range virtually ever.
DeleteI guess I tend to see much wider ranges on this flop than the 3 you mentioned. I think AQ, AJ, KT, JT, QT...hell Q6 or J6 sooooooted show up there a lot (and if I see wider ranges at 2/5 and 5/10 I would assume those ranges are equally wide at 1/2). So what does betting turn accomplish? It continues to get value out of that range. Do we value own ourself some? Probably. But I value own the shit out of myself anyway so I don't really care about that too much-long run I am still making more $$$ and am much harder to play against. I just think c/r the flop and then checking turn when 1 scare card comes is meh. Oh and yeah I am b/f here every time for sure.
Also if you are sure others are leading I still don't really get the c/r on the flop...do you want them to fold? I think I lead this flop pretty much every time. Is different if this is a raised pot (perhaps) but in a limped pot this should be an insta-lead to me. Finally if we are adamant that c/r is the right flop line the c/r should be bigger-more like a pot bet which is 55 (though i think 45-50 is fine).
definite river fold. He could have a higher two pair, also (probably wouldn't raise river holding twopair with a 4straight out there, but there are still tons of hands that beat you on this board runout.
ReplyDeleteYou played this hand fine, you just got an awful turn and awful-er river.
If the situation is reversed and I'm in position with AQ (though I'm probably dumping AQ vs. a c/r limp pot), I think I can safely bet my Aces up. It's not such a thin bet, either; by the river, my QJ hand is pretty face up (which admittedly is a problem), and I'm rarely showing up with QT from the hard c/r flop.
DeleteIn villain's eyes, I'm mostly showing up with 2 pair (q6, j6, qj) and a set of 6's. The problem with the hand is exactly that: V can represent a lot of hands here (by the river, there are a lot of hands better than Queens up), but I don't know if he's thinking that in depth - this is 1/2 after all. V would have had to call with a hand with some equity and plan to take it away on a later street given scare cards - things I had not seen him do in prior hands nor later hands.
All of these reasons has me thinking he either has mostly T9 or a better two pair - KQ or mostly AQ.
FTR him not betting turn in a c/r flop pot is LOL bad if he has what he says he had. I assume you are calling one bet on turn and this is the spot he should be betting. Just terrible line by villain.
ReplyDeleteGuy almost surely had a Ten from what you describe, probably not with a 9, and made his straight on the river. Easy fold, only a toolbox calls with 3rd and 4th pair on an Ace-King high board with a 4-straight showing as well and this amount of action/calling. No thought needed at that point.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I dont like your play on the flop as a rule -- I like to check-call the flop most times with top two. Bottom two or top-bottom are much more easily counterfeited by the turn or river, but this is a great spot to just call on the flop and get some more money from these guys on the turn. As pointed out above, you have very little to fear on the turn and river, and you just happened to get mega unlucky and hit not one but two cards that can beat you on the last two streets. I know you said you put him on a draw, but top two with a raggy third card is a great spot to just call in most situations. Especially if you know your someone who can fold on the turn or river if a true scare card comes (in your case, you got two of them).
So you have him on what? JT calling backdoor straight draw or QT calling a backdoor straight draw? This is why having a random T in his hand makes no sense; he has to feel his hand is good on the flop to stand a c/r of $45 in a limp pot with $10 committed. The only other T he can have is AT for the gutter, but that doesn't make a heckuva lotta sense either; it's a lot of money to put in with nothing more than a gutter + over...
DeleteFurthermore, I c/r the flop because I'm 80-90% sure someone hit. His flat of the original bet and his language said to me that he was drawing. It just felt so much like a draw and nothing else; that's why I c/r the flop. I want to get money in.
DeleteCould it be that he just can't fold TT and is putting you on a draw? You have check/raised him before so he sees you as a bully. Sooner or later he will start to give you less and less credit for big hands. Maybe he wants to make a stand against you in this hand with a pocket pair. It just happens that he sucks out on you big time.
ReplyDeleteGood point; I almost completely discounted TT from his range. He wasn't shy to raise, so I would assume he would raise TT. However, it's entirely possible to limp TT. I just think that he faces a bet (which he flats) and a c/r (which he flats again) makes him so much more prone to drawing rather than made hands. $45 on a limped pot seems a lot to invest with a 3rd pair / backdoor. $45 on a limped pot seems a lot to invest on QT, JT (top pair, second pair with backdoor). $45 on KQ even seems a lot to invest. $45 on AQ - perhaps, but is he limping AQ?
Delete$45 on the draw? From my perspective, we're playing for stacks because calling the $45 gives 2:1 implied odds which is not exactly money-making poker. From his perspective, he's got an open ender! Duh! The draw is the nuts!
Seems like he either misplayed a strong starting hand or kept calling with a drawing one. I agree with your decision, I fold at the end. But, I do not agree with a bet on the river. Here is what I would be thinking if I were the Asian. 1) If you've been c/r me, I'll pay $25 to see your hand and get info. 2) With $135 in the pot, $25 bet seems weak perhaps I'll raise. 3) My drawing hand just turned into the nuts and I'm going to bet no matter what you do.
DeleteI was kicking myself after I bet the $25 on the river; I just felt like when he checks the turn, perhaps I can still get small value out of him on the river. I didn't want it to weakly check through when I have the 2 pair. I agree that the bet was a dumb bet.
DeleteKeep in mind he is only putting $35 into a $75 pot at that time. Your c/r should have been higher.
ReplyDelete