Friday, January 7, 2011

What would you do? #216 - Fold bottom set?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Hand History Converter

UTG: $50.00 - 12/8 / 73 hands
UTG+1: $77.05
Hero (MP): $83.90
CO: $50.00
BTN: $52.35
SB: $50.25 - 13/11 / 3.2%3bet / 36% steal / 2.2 AF / 50% cbet flop / 478 hands
BB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with 5c 5d
UTG raises to $1.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds, SB requests TIME, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.75) Jc 5s 8s (3 players)
SB requests TIME, SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $3.75, SB requests TIME, SB raises to $9.50, UTG folds, Hero calls $5.75

Turn: ($24.75) 2c (2 players)
SB requests TIME, SB bets $15, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???
SB's detailed aggression factor

Click to see results

Hero folds

Here's the rub: I can't see him check / raising with anything less than a set. He's clearly trying to get stacks in, though it's curious that he only bets $15 on the turn, which is the one question that sticks out in my head.

The only obvious draw here is 6s7s, but I simply don't see him playing it in this way. I think he 3bets AsKs and AA, KK given the multi-way pot. I have to say, I think I'm proud of my first ever 3rd absolute nuts laydown. I've never folded a set on a non 3flush / 3straight board. It's liberating. I don't intend to make a habit of it.

I'm ready for the comments / flames to begin. Fire away.

Final Pot: $24.75
SB wins $23.55
(Rake: $1.20)


  1. Don't sleep on the timing tell here. He time banked before calling you preflop. That could just be that he was busy on another table, distracted by something else, or he legitimately had to think about what to do. He is going to auto-call w/ 88, so we can slightly discount that. JJ he might think about raising (not folding obv), but that is the only hand he will time-bank which is ahead of you. He might also time-bank with lots of other hands debating if he should fold or call.

    I think 10s9s is also a possibility, as well as the obvious JsXs with a heavy leaning toward the better suited jacks like AsJs & KsJs, but really Js9s+ is in his range. He may just like Js9s a little too much (maybe he reads your blog). Basically, this board is too draw heavy to ever be folding a set. Not to mention, if your plan is to fold it, fold it on the flop and save the $5.75. Once you make it to the turn, which is a brick - you are in perfect position to pull the BrueChips fade 'n go. Jam since all the draws missed, and pick up a ton of value.

  2. he's sure not repping much, is he? I think you were right to fold it based on all the numbers, not sure if I could do it in-game

  3. Just don't fold. Looking for reasons to fold sets at NL50 just isn't a great idea

  4. He's defo a nit. It's a small sample but he has never check raised. He's pot committed. He is never semi-bluffing/bluffing the turn. A turn check raise is nearly always the nuts. At worst he could have flatted AA/KK and thinks he's still ahead but OOP he is delighted to be able to squeeze with a premium hand. Because of draws he probably shoves the turn with AA/KK. I guess he's smart enough not to overvalue top pair. He's probably too nitty to check raise a nut flush draw. He probably flats JJ and 88 100% of the time. I think it's a tight fold by most peoples standards but more than likely the right decision. How did I do?

  5. What was the UTG player like? Any potential that if the UTG is a complete donk that SB flats w a premie?

    I think it's just a bit too nitty to be folding bottom set here.

  6. dunno why you are calling flop and folding a brick turn, he should be barreling turn close to 100% with his entire range (sets for value and draws cause he has a ton of equity and you rarely have better than 1 pair after you flat the flop raise)

  7. I expect him to be checking the turn with his draws, but he's going full bore ahead on the turn. I call to see the reaction from the turn, which is more of the same. Believe me, this is the first time I'm ever folding a non-3 flush/straight board with a set, ever.


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