Fold or no fold? What to do???

The proverbial smoking gun...

Okay - here's a real stone cold whodunnit...  We're deep stacked at a $.25/.50 table today - $80.20 is the effective stack size (I'm sitting on $145.05).  I don't have any real data on my opponent.

I look down at AsQd from the CO and open for a standard $1.50.  I get called by the SB.

$3.50 in the middle, flop is 5s7h3s.  He's got a wide range, but this kind of flop mostly misses any strength save for the obvious sets.  However, I want to charge for any draws he may have.  I cbet for $2.50 and he calls.  No timing tells or anything; he pauses and check raises me for essentially a min raise: $6.75.  With a backdoor flush draw and 2 overs, I call.

$17 in a growing pot, we see our bingo Ad.  Our opponent continues his aggression, though betting a bit on the small side after his flop c/r: $8.50.  I think I call here - I don't see what raising accomplishes; I keep in all his bluffs and open myself up to be jammed on (which I probably have to fold).

River is a 2rd A: Ah.  $34 in the middle.  Final board 5s7h3sAdAh.  I hold trips.  He open jams $63.45 into the $34 pot.  WTF?  Let's play this back: 64 is possible, XsXs - (As6s, As4s are not possible since I hold the As), set of 5's, 7's or 3's.  Does a naked straight draw play it this way (i.e. 6sX)?  This is so far out of the realm of the player base - I have yet to see this kind of action and pressure from this pool.

What do you do here?

I folded - given the action, there's simply too many hands that beat me that act like this the whole way through.  His hands are so slanted towards value with the rivered boat...

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File under: Cooler with needless bloodshed

We're full stacked at $.25/.50 today.  It's a bomb pot, meaning each player sitting puts in a BB and we all see a flop.  There are 3 players at the table, including me.  Nothing notable about stack sizes, other than one opponent has $25 - 50BB.  I have no notes on either player.

Since it's a bomb pot, we're looking at a flop of 3c9dQd with $1.50 in the middle.  We have AsTh.  I've found that more often than not, I can stab at these bomb pots and take 'em down without a fight.  As it stands, we have a backdoor straight draw paired with our overcard.  In other words: we don't have much.

Does that stop me?  In chorus: "NO!"  I take a pot sized stab: $1.50.  It does nothing - I get called in both spots :-(.  Womp Womp.

$6 in the middle and I see signs of life with the Jh rolling off the turn: I now have a gutter and an over, which may not be good.  I check with the full intention of check / folding.  However, it checks through.

$6 in the middle, and I river the nuts with the Kc, making the final runout: 3c9dQdJhKc; I have broadway locked up!  My thinking is go large - VERY large - because any Ten completes the straight and I have a very hidden nuts, having backdoored it.  I make a very bluffy $25 bet into the $6 pot, going for what I think is broke.  My cheeky opponent decides to ship the rest of his $48.35 stack in, and my mid-stacked friend calls his $23.40 stack... WTF????

Nothing too exciting: I'm up against KTo and T8o - for two turned straights who have simple 4 straights.  Not sure why my full stacked opponent felt the need to ship it, but thanks for the nice scoop of $123!!!

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File this under: Don't do that! (second edition)

Just stop.  Seriously... just stop!

Deep stacked at a $0.05/0.10.  We're sitting on $60.59 effective (our opponent has a greater amount of chips as compared to us.  This one comes complete with notes; my notes on villain are "overreps 22; bet turn / riv."  I've added notes since, but he's a fish, to be sure!

He opens to $0.35 and I flat in the HJ with Ah7h along with the BTN.  Perfect hand very deep stacked - it's a nut flush hand, along with the top pair that is going to be good some of the time.  Given my opponent's overplay ability, I'm content seeing a flop with 600BB behind.

$1.20 in the middle; flop is AsAc2h.  Opponent leads for $0.90.  I flat.  I don't think I'm ever getting away from the hand, but I don't think I can call an open shove for 6 buy-ins.

$3.00 in the middle, turn is 5c.  He leads pot, and I happily call again.  I'm kind of kind check down mode but it's costing me each street.

$9.00 in the middle; river is 7d, completing my top boat, and as a matter of fact, the nuts.  No real non-nut hands possible besides a cooler'd better Ace, A2, A5 and sets.  To my delight, he leads again for $6.75.  This train is going to value town!  I ship $56.00 even, which he of course snaps off - proudly showing none other than 3d4d?????  He turned a straight but couldn't fold for a 600BB ship?  My targets were squarely worse boats & cooler'd Aces... a straight was not even on my radar!

Don't do that!

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The 'ole Zeebo back at it!

Apparently Zeebo is a clown

Nearly without fail, people still REFUSE to lay down a boat.  I get a full stack in on the riv when I open overbet shove:

Table is $0.25/0.50.  Sitting on $50 effective and I'm relatively new to the table.  I look down at 5c4c & open to $1.50 - 3x is pretty standard for open.  Folds around to HJ who raises to $4.4, slightly under standard sizing, and certainly smaller than my 3bet sizing to an open.  The HUD on the site is poor, but at least it gives me an inkling of tendencies; it shows he's 3bet before in around 10 hands or so.  I debate 4betting vs. seeing a flop, and go the more passive route.

$9.55 in the pot and flop is a magic 3h5s5d.  I check and he bets $3.35.  I call.  I can make the argument for raising, but I think this flop misses much of his non pocket pair range.  If he has a PP, that's a weak-ass cbet.  I want to keep his bluffs and "made" hands in.

$16.25 in the middle; turn is 8c, completing the rainbow board.  Pretty blank card.  Checks through.  He's either playing tricky or has nothing.

Still $16.25 in the center and river is a 5s, completing my 4 of a kind - otherwise known as the nuts.  At this point, he either has it or he doesn't.  If he has it, the "it" is a boat.  Zeebo's Theorem essentially says, "they never fold boats."  Unfortunate if he has it, and if he doesn't he was likely checking through the river.  I open ship the $42.25 behind.

Not going to lie; I knew he had a hand - and he definitely timebanked all the way down... before finally calling the $42 into $16.  Shows 8s9s; scoop, baby!

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It's not often I'm speechless when playing...

Credit to Jim Manser's album art

Today's hand is from the $0.10/$0.20 tables.  We're heads up sitting on $21.83 effective.

I'm on the BTN and open to a standard 3x with Ah3c and villain calls.  Ax hands are fairly strong heads up.  In fact, when playing HU, I've read that you should be opening ~50% of your hands.  If you apply that metric, Ax is really strong.

Conjecture aside, flop is 3h3dJc - nice flop ($1.20 in the middle)!  Problem is I don't feel like it connects with any of my opponent.  He checks to me and I check.  Can't turn blood from a rock, after all!  If I bet my trips here, there's a huge chance he'll fold and I want him to connect something with his hand.

Turn is a 7s, same $1.20 in the middle.  The 7 completes a little more of my opponent's range: T9, T8, 78, 76, etc.  TBH, if he has a Jack, he's leading here too.  He checks to me again, though.  I consider the above, but again check, not wanting to lose him.  Perhaps he'll get "lucky" on the river and call a strange bet by me.

2s on the river.  Womp Womp.  This doesn't hit anything.  He checks a third time.  Same $1.20 in the middle and I throw a Hail Mary $5.25 bet out there, seeing if he'll fish.  He does.  And shows me As8s for Ace high with 8 kicker?   I mean...  What?  Thanks for the $5.25 gift!

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Straight flushes? Oh my!

This is known as a "Nutting Stone."

I'm mystified at how I made only one bet on this hand.  A little background on me: I get a little spicy when I see a bargain to enter a pot.  Hopefully that explains my speculative call.

$0.10/$0.20 table, effective stacks are $25 (I have $48.73 FWIW).  Folds twice to villain who opens for $1.  BTN calls and I call with Kc9c.

I flop magic: TdQdJd - straight flush.  I'm fairly certain this hits my opponent's range on the head so I check.  Of note, I have stone nuts; there is no drawing out on me with blockers up & down.  He leads for pot: $3.10.  I flat, considering raising will scare away villain.

Ah on the turn, $9.30 in the middle.  This kind of ruins my opponent's hand because unless he has AK, he's going to be less tenacious.  It unfortunately narrows down the hand for his value betting range.  I'm stuck: I can't bet here because I'll scare him, but I need him to have a precise combo.  I check. He checks :-(.

Hopefully, my check turn will make him comfortable because the 9c (an effective blank) falls on the river.  Still $9.30 in the middle.  In my head, I flip a coin: bet/check.  The coin flip lands on check - I'm hoping he finds he still may have value from his range - given that I've been 100% passive the whole hand.  Nope.  He checks through and I'm shown QhQs for a flopped set.

Okay - comments?  I don't need Monday morning quarterback comments; I'm looking for meaningful, "I flopped a straight flush and should have bet the turn or river because XYZ."  Lay 'em on me!

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File under: definitely bad beat / cooler

My nuts were slow roasted!

I have the nut flush!!!!  How can I lose?  This hand kinda pisses me off - but I think it's just a vanilla cooler.  The topper is he's not even fully stacked.

We're heads up sitting on $43.20 effective at a $0.25/0.50 table.  Villain is in the SB and I'm in the BB.  I've been beating him handily; I'm up $7 and change on him.  He opens to $1.50 and I flat Ac9c.

$3.00 in the middle and I flop magic - JcQcKc.  I shit you not when I say this but I did consider the following during the hand: I love that I have a blocker to the straight flush, meaning that only precisely Tc9c can beat me here.  And I have a re-draw to the straight flush with the Tc if my opponent happens to suck out on me.  Unexcitedly, the hand checks through.

3s (blank) on the turn.  I need to get money in if we're going to stack our opponent.  I lead full pot, $3.  He calls.

6s (another blank) on the riv with $9 in the middle.  I have no hope of stacking him, but he did call a full pot on the turn.  I lead pot again, $9 on the river hoping for a call.  To my chagrin, he ships it, $38.70.  I snap it off and am shown the bad news: Tc9c.

Ugh!  $85.40 lit on fire :-(

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No sooner than I post the last hand and this occurs!

I'm not really a donkey, am I?

I find this hand exemplar of NOT stacking off when deep stacked.  We find ourselves at a $0.25/0.50 table sitting on $90.27.  This is one of those bomb pots where the whole table sees the flop by posting a BB each and the hand begins with the flop.

Flop is Qs8s8h, $3.00 in the middle (6 players) and I have Js8c.  Trips.  Good hand.  By far not the nuts, but not far off.  2 flush on board, I lead for $2.25 in the BB after the SB checks to me.  Gets called by the next two players ($105.84 and $92.52 respectively) as well as the BTN ($20.25).

Turn is a Kd.  $12 in the middle.  Given the flop action, there are plenty of targets out there for my continued bet: naked Queens, spade draws, T9 and JT gutters, worse 8's.  I don't think I should check down the hand at this point given the sheer quantity of draws available.  I continue on the turn with a $7.50 bet which gets called by the next player ($96.09 behind), and min raised to $15.00 by the following guy ($75.27 behind.  BTN folds.  It's a min raise; I can fold here because I can already be beat - and if I'm beat, there is no suckout for me.  This could also be a probing bet to determine the strength of my hand, vs. his [at best drawing hand] perceived JsTs which still has a ton of equity.  I think about pumping more money in or pumping the brakes - and I settle on brakes; it's a bomb pot and he can have any two cards including (no blockers to some of the combos) QQ, KK, Q8, K8, A8 - all of which have me beat.  The other guy seems to settle on the same though: call.

River is a helpful Ks.  $57 in the middle.  Ks completes flushes, but gives me bottom boat which beats all flushes.  With bottom boat, however, I'm only beating flushes and random bluffs.  I will not stack off here - I'd prefer to fold a winner than dump 150BB on a random hand that was undefined from the get-go.  Checks to the turn raiser who downsizes to $13(?!?!?!?!?!).  To me, that feels very much like a teaser bet to get me to check/raise.  My mantra for this hand is, "do not stack off," and I follow through with a flat weak-ass call, as does the player to my left.  $93 in the middle and we get the reveal:

AhAs for the plyer to my left and Kc8d for the better boat and win.  He did not win max value!  As for the AA, he's beating nothing by the river save for bluffs.  He should have saved money by folding the turn and/or river.

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Hand of the Night

Holding hands for the Hand of the Day

This hand is not all that interesting, other than the fact that my opponent stacks off 200+BB.  A little preface for the hand: the site that I'm on offers a forced ante hand randomly.  I'm not sure of the odds of a forced ante, but in the event it's a "bomb pot," every ponies up a BB and we automatically see a flop... i.e. no pre flop action.

This hand comes to you from a $0.25/$0.50 table - where I'm pleased to announce that I'm playing nearly 100% of my time.

$4.00 in the pot (8 players * $0.50 per).  Flop is 4hQsQd.  I'm in the SB with 55, and first to act.  I check & it checks to the HJ who bets half pot, $2.  He's now sitting on $53.02.  BTN calls with $114.77 behind, and I flat leaving me with $123.16.  I've seen these players bet the 4 often enough to know I should see a turn card without much thought.

I'm sure you know where this is going: 5d on the turn, completing my totally hidden 5's full of queens.  Board reads 4hQsQd5d  Now, I'm not sure if either them have anything whatsoever, and I'm okay with letting a free card go if they both have air.  However, I'm going to find out pretty quickly if one of them have a Q, because I expect a continued bet - particularly because there's a 2 flush board out there, and there's also a straight draw with the 4 5.  To my delight, the HJ bets $6.50 - for sure repping the Q, and the fat stack BTN comes along for $6.50.  Now I'm faced with a dilemma; I want to stack the 200BB guy.  If I have any shot of doing that, I need to juice the pot now, or hope to get it in on the river.  If I juice the pot now, though, I can set up an easier river shove, rather than a jagged over bet on the riv or a check/raise.  With $23 in the middle prior to my call, I go roughly pot, raising to $24.  They both come along.

$82 in the pot and $90.77 effective (I have more than the BTN, so we're playing for his $90.77 stack).  River is 7s, completing a weird backdoor straight, but otherwise not providing much fear to any naked Q.  I didn't feel comfortable at the time (retrospectively, I probably should have opened shoved, so I missed out on another $15 in profit) so I led the river for $75.  Both players snap call and I scoop probably my largest pot yet on this site: $257.52.

HJ shows KdQh and BTN shows QcJs for the case Queen....  NH fellas!

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Don't do that!

It wouldn't be fair for me to only go one way regarding chastising my opponents, now would it?  In today's hand, we're 640BB deep at a $0.05/$0.10 table.  This time, I have notes on my opponent which say, "He will open full 500BB all in if he believes he's nutted which is not nutted (bottom straight, 2 pair, etc.)."  This is Poker Meister speak for, he can ship the semi-nuts or nuts when he's strong.

My opponent limps (what all good fishees do) and I look down at QcQs from one off the cut off.  I open for my standard $.75 - I if there are limpers, I go 7.5x for one limp, 10.5x for two, 12.5x for three.  On this site, I get calls for days with raising sizes that large which, to me, is incredible!  Folds around to the fishee who does what fishees do and flats.

$1.65 in the middle.  We see a Ac9s8d flop.  I've only begun to fight, cause that Ace may create consternation for many people, but not me!  I'm not going all in by any means, and I can certainly set myself up to be bluffed later, but for now, there are many hands my opponent can limp / call with that don't contain an Ace.  I'm targeting 8x, 9x, JT, 67, T8.  Also, I want to get a feel for his Ax hands - I'm "concerned" if he makes the call here, but not totally concerned because I think there's value here by betting.  He checks to me and I click $1.05 - little more than 2/3 pot.  He flats.

$3.75 in the middle.  5s turn - Ac9s8d5s putting a 2 flush out there, completing 67.  He checks once again.  I lead for ~2/3 again - $2.25, focusing more on his draws because I'm pretty sure he'd lead with 67 if he hit it, and I'm pretty sure he would've bet out if he had an Ax hand.  He flats again.

$8.25 in the middle.  The both hated and loved Qh on the river.  Ac9s8d5sQh puts an obvious JT straight out there, while also completing the 67 straight on the turn.  No flushes complete.  My opponent opens for $69.36 (I have $60.23 behind).  600BB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  WTF?????  I mean - the Qh riv makes me beat almost all pair hands (exception of a slow-played AA).  But this guy has no problem shipping it very deep with the semi-nuts and the nuts.  Given there's 2 nutty hands out there, I have to fold, right?  It sucks to lay down a set on the river, but I can't justify a 600BB blow-up.  I fold.

For whatever reason, he shows - I guess to let me know he bluffed me?  Maybe he thinks he's good?  He shows Jh8s for a pair and straight re-draw.  My head lowers :-( as I realize I've been bluffed.  Nice play, sir, nice play - or "VNH."

Is this really a "don't do that?"

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File under: Don't do that!

I remember this show from when I was a kid!

I think I'm going to start a series chastising my opponents for burning cash... yeah... that's what I'm going to do! It may be crass of me to do that, but I don't care - this is my blog & I do what I want to!

Obviously, I see players doing stupid stuff all the time - but I'm going to save the particularly egregious stuff for posting.  What you can expect to see is mostly deep stacked stuff, which brings us to today's post.

We're deep stacked, with $28.11 effective at a $0.05/0.10 game.

Folds around to my left (I'm in the cut off, one off the button) and he opens a standard-ish $0.35 with $35.38 behind.  I look down at a speculative 6h4h and opt to take a flop.  I can get spicy and raise here, but this guy has been fairly quiet, my hand is relatively easy to throw away post flop, and if the planets align, I can put in a minimal amount of money up front with a TON behind, without it costing me if I miss.  Therefore, rather than go for a quick takedown (i.e. 3bet and have to choose to fold to a 4bet potentially), I speculate and call.  The BB with $12.53 takes the call as well.

$1.1 in the middle: Flop is Ts3d5c.  I hit an open-ender.  Checks to original raiser who opens for $.55 - half pot.  Again, my options are still viable - raise or flat.  I have such a hidden hand if I hit that if my opponent has a hand himself, I'll get paid.  Right now, though, as with the pre-flop action, I don't want to get raised off my hand (if I raise and he re-raises, I'm losing part of the value of my hidden draw).  Therefore, I flat once again, opting to see another card fairly cheaply.  Also, for those playing at home, recognize that we have immediate odds here that we're getting less than even money (8 outs - 4 7's and 4 2's * 4 = ~32% odds to hit) on the next 2 cards, but obviously the implied odds are tremendous.

$2.75 in the middle.  Turn is a big bold beautiful 7h.  I hit my straight and it's the nut straight for the board.  Checks again to the original raiser who confirms my suspicion that he has a hand by leading another half pot $1.38.  Now that I'm in the driver's seat, it's decision time.  I want to get more money in the middle given that we're so deep (I'm sitting on $27.21 effective at this time).  I go for a $5.25 raise in order to spike up the pot, leaving $21.96 behind and around $10 in the middle.  It would be nice to at least get a buy-in / buy-in and a half in the middle.  BB snap calls(?????) the raise, and original raiser clicks all the way to all in for $34.83.  Obviously I snap call with the nuts as does BB - two pots are presented: $37.94 for the main and $30.96.

Weirdly, I'm shown JhTh from the original raiser (WTF dude???  Pair of Tens and a weak-ish kicker?  Seriously?!?!?!?) and 6d9d for the double gutter draw who was just clicking buttons on the flop (WTF, but not as WTF as my 300BB deep stacked JT friend).

River is Ac, a blank, and I scoop $67.40!  Again, don't do that!

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File this under: image matters!

It's possible I'm a Diva and just don't know it!

If you know me in real life, you'd know that how I physically project myself (i.e. clothes, appearance, etc.) is really not a concern of mine.  I keep to a strict workout regiment, I eat [what I consider] well, and wear clothes that I consider comfortable and feel good.  I do it all for myself, not anyone else - because it all feels good to me.  As a happy side effect, I look good (as I imagine) for my wife - even though she and my kids make fun of my man "tiddies."  Whatevs... like I said, I do it for no one else but myself, and objectively, I think I look good for a close-to-50-year-old!

That said, image does matter at the poker table.  Everything said and every action completed leads your opponents to complete a story about you.  As evidenced, may I present to you today's hand analysis:

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A bit of background- I've been ramming & jamming at the table.  As I see it, I have a very aggro image, and I've taken down more than my fair share of pots by opening and cbetting, while not really showing down (I think I may have shown a nutty / close to nuts hand in probably about 30-40 hands).

This hand comes from the $0.50 / $0.25 tables.

Effective stacks are $70.39 (prior to my posting the BB).

Folds around to BTN who limps and I check the option with 5c7h.  You can probably already anticipate where this is going...

$1.25 pot.  Flops come magic for me: Qc7d7c - trips for me... and personally, I'd prefer to lead here.  Combined with my image, I think I'd get action - or at minimum suspicion - but there's not a whole ton my opponent hits here in their limping range.  I think my best approach is to check the flop to put it on my opponent and feel them out.  Therefore, I check the flop - they surprisingly lead full pot $1.25.

To me, these guys at this stake are fairly passive - so a full pot bet says my opponent has something almost guaranteed.  I'm near certain they're going to commit a ton of money - and I want to get lots of money into the middle.  Perfect time for a "small" check / raise, no?  I raise to $5.00 and they immediately snap call.

$11.25 pot.  Turn is a lovely 5h, and despite the completed boat, I *DO NOT* want to slow down when I have a fish on the hook.  Mindful not to blow my opponent out of the water (I think pot or more than pot would really have them questioning, but 2/3 pot seems to be about appropriate), I lead for $7.50 and again, my opponent snaps.  My target ranges are Qx and 2 clubs - perhaps an over to the board + 2 clubs (i.e. AcXc or KcXc) but more likely Qx given the lead.  Again, passive play at these stakes - I think the population of players checks through a flush draw.  So, $7.50 - and I get a snap.

$26.25 pot.  Now here's where I have to think.  I want to get value from all the Qx that has called thus far.  I'm pretty certain that since the flush didn't get there, this is an opponent who will check through all missed draws, and likely get to a free showdown (i.e. not bet riv) with a Qx.  I want neither scenario to occur - therefore I want to bet rather than try for the check / raise river.  My risk analysis is as follows: I can get stacks in the middle ($57.39 behind at this point) at a 5-10% chance my opponent leads riv and calls the stack off (not a bluff), giving me $57 * 10% = $5.7 + 5% chance of lead / fold (bluff) $~20 * 5% = $0.40 --> $5.7 + $.4 = $6.1 cumulative factored earnings, vs. [call it] 70% chance of calling a % pot bet + 0% chance of calling a flush draw and shutting down the possibility of the bluff riv: the maths are $~20 bet * 70% = $14 but I need to subtract for the bluff ($20 * 5% above) $.4 --> $13.6 in earnings.  Therefore, to me, betting / leading is my most profitable solution.  Looking back, I think I should have clicked $20 instead of what I actually bet - but I have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight in the above calculations.

In real life, I lead for a near full pot - wow - and I guess that's the point of this title: "image matters."  I lead for $25 and get snapped immediately - which makes me think in retrospect that I could've gotten away with an open shove of $57!  Perhaps I need to revisit my calculations?

I'm shown AdQs - wowowowowowowow How the heck do you limp that on the BTN?!?!?!??!?  I take down a pot of $73.25.  Again... image matters!