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| Apparently Zeebo is a clown |
Nearly without fail, people still REFUSE to lay down a boat. I get a full stack in on the riv when I open overbet shove:
Table is $0.25/0.50. Sitting on $50 effective and I'm relatively new to the table. I look down at 5c4c & open to $1.50 - 3x is pretty standard for open. Folds around to HJ who raises to $4.4, slightly under standard sizing, and certainly smaller than my 3bet sizing to an open. The HUD on the site is poor, but at least it gives me an inkling of tendencies; it shows he's 3bet before in around 10 hands or so. I debate 4betting vs. seeing a flop, and go the more passive route.
$9.55 in the pot and flop is a magic 3h5s5d. I check and he bets $3.35. I call. I can make the argument for raising, but I think this flop misses much of his non pocket pair range. If he has a PP, that's a weak-ass cbet. I want to keep his bluffs and "made" hands in.
$16.25 in the middle; turn is 8c, completing the rainbow board. Pretty blank card. Checks through. He's either playing tricky or has nothing.
Still $16.25 in the center and river is a 5s, completing my 4 of a kind - otherwise known as the nuts. At this point, he either has it or he doesn't. If he has it, the "it" is a boat. Zeebo's Theorem essentially says, "they never fold boats." Unfortunate if he has it, and if he doesn't he was likely checking through the river. I open ship the $42.25 behind.
Not going to lie; I knew he had a hand - and he definitely timebanked all the way down... before finally calling the $42 into $16. Shows 8s9s; scoop, baby!
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The hand in question is linked here.
I have folded a full house before, but it was in a hand with a few other people, and I knew that at least one of them had me beat. Otherwise -- yeah, you have to have balls of steel to fold a boat.
ReplyDeleteKnowing that your opponent is not likely to fold a boat, look for maximum damage. Far too often, players will worry about their opponents folding lesser hands based on bet sizing - but following the formula: if a pot sized bet is very likely to get called, but a overbet shove has "almost" as good a shot of getting called, you make more money on the shove even if deducting for a few percentage points of his ability to fold.
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