![]() |
It's possible I'm a Diva and just don't know it! |
That said, image does matter at the poker table. Everything said and every action completed leads your opponents to complete a story about you. As evidenced, may I present to you today's hand analysis:
First, if you sign up for ClubsPoker, you can view the hand rather than relying on my mediocre retelling. Use the referral link provided if you're able to do so.
The hand in question is linked here.
A bit of background- I've been ramming & jamming at the table. As I see it, I have a very aggro image, and I've taken down more than my fair share of pots by opening and cbetting, while not really showing down (I think I may have shown a nutty / close to nuts hand in probably about 30-40 hands).
This hand comes from the $0.50 / $0.25 tables.
Effective stacks are $70.39 (prior to my posting the BB).
Folds around to BTN who limps and I check the option with 5c7h. You can probably already anticipate where this is going...
$1.25 pot. Flops come magic for me: Qc7d7c - trips for me... and personally, I'd prefer to lead here. Combined with my image, I think I'd get action - or at minimum suspicion - but there's not a whole ton my opponent hits here in their limping range. I think my best approach is to check the flop to put it on my opponent and feel them out. Therefore, I check the flop - they surprisingly lead full pot $1.25.
To me, these guys at this stake are fairly passive - so a full pot bet says my opponent has something almost guaranteed. I'm near certain they're going to commit a ton of money - and I want to get lots of money into the middle. Perfect time for a "small" check / raise, no? I raise to $5.00 and they immediately snap call.
$11.25 pot. Turn is a lovely 5h, and despite the completed boat, I *DO NOT* want to slow down when I have a fish on the hook. Mindful not to blow my opponent out of the water (I think pot or more than pot would really have them questioning, but 2/3 pot seems to be about appropriate), I lead for $7.50 and again, my opponent snaps. My target ranges are Qx and 2 clubs - perhaps an over to the board + 2 clubs (i.e. AcXc or KcXc) but more likely Qx given the lead. Again, passive play at these stakes - I think the population of players checks through a flush draw. So, $7.50 - and I get a snap.
$26.25 pot. Now here's where I have to think. I want to get value from all the Qx that has called thus far. I'm pretty certain that since the flush didn't get there, this is an opponent who will check through all missed draws, and likely get to a free showdown (i.e. not bet riv) with a Qx. I want neither scenario to occur - therefore I want to bet rather than try for the check / raise river. My risk analysis is as follows: I can get stacks in the middle ($57.39 behind at this point) at a 5-10% chance my opponent leads riv and calls the stack off (not a bluff), giving me $57 * 10% = $5.7 + 5% chance of lead / fold (bluff) $~20 * 5% = $0.40 --> $5.7 + $.4 = $6.1 cumulative factored earnings, vs. [call it] 70% chance of calling a % pot bet + 0% chance of calling a flush draw and shutting down the possibility of the bluff riv: the maths are $~20 bet * 70% = $14 but I need to subtract for the bluff ($20 * 5% above) $.4 --> $13.6 in earnings. Therefore, to me, betting / leading is my most profitable solution. Looking back, I think I should have clicked $20 instead of what I actually bet - but I have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight in the above calculations.
In real life, I lead for a near full pot - wow - and I guess that's the point of this title: "image matters." I lead for $25 and get snapped immediately - which makes me think in retrospect that I could've gotten away with an open shove of $57! Perhaps I need to revisit my calculations?
I'm shown AdQs - wowowowowowowow How the heck do you limp that on the BTN?!?!?!??!? I take down a pot of $73.25. Again... image matters!
No comments:
Post a Comment