Tuesday, December 16, 2014

When they give away their hand...

As I was playing yesterday I had an interesting hand happen - well you not might find it interesting but I found interesting myself:

I had been playing for about four hours when I found myself looking down at JJ and facing a raise of $15 from a very tight player. I contemplated three betting but after thinking about it I decided to flat in position on the cut off. 2 factors are at play here: he rarely raises and therefore I'm likely to be behind his range, or I'm 50/50 with an AK / AQ. Otherwise, I'm ahead of him and don't want him folding. In other words I don't want to put a ton of money in where I don't know whether I'm at in the hand. One other player came along - a fairly loose bad player.

The flop came all under blanks; 2 5 8 rainbow. It checks to the original raiser who immediately lead for $30. This is a fairly safe board; he's leading 2/3 pot... somewhat reasonable, but if he has AA, he's probably wanting value on a board that connected with very few hands of the 2 remaining players. KK / QQ, I understand - but this feels like an automatic c-bet. Therefore, I think for a moment and decide to flat once again.

The bad player surprisingly decided to check raise all in for $76 total. This has the original player in the tank. After much contemplation tight player flat calls & here is the title of the story - he gave his hand away - no aa kk qq - he's got a marginal overpaid that he doesn't want to fold. A tight player who's confident in his hand is always shoving / snap calling / whatever but a tell like thinking for a while and just flatting - that's a good indicator of weakness. Add to his data points the fact that I just flatted his c-bet - it just wreaks of weakness.

He has $120 or so behind and I opt to shove which puts him into the tank once again. Eventually, he calls and shows TT. The check raiser mucks and I win a decent pot with JJ!
Posted by The Poker Meister at 12/16/2014 09:47:00 PM
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12 comments:

  1. angerisagiftDecember 17, 2014 at 1:13 PM

    sweeeeeeeeeet hand,bro. as far knowing/thinking that his hand is not KK/QQ/AA. if he is tight player or any player sometimes u get married to a hand even if the board is dry like rainbow/unders bcuz u cant believe this can b a losing hand with that board plus no1 reraised him preflop., for example u flatted with JJ ,so u could hit trips. it is reasonable to assume that some1 would flat with 22,55,88 to spike a set.

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    Replies
    1. The Poker MeisterDecember 17, 2014 at 2:02 PM

      Agreed - and I'd reraise JJ against a player like what you describe above who would raise 22-88 from that position and flat the check / raise. However, this is a tight player - and his total pause and tanking is such a strong signal of a weak hand.

      Also, I acknowledge the bad player can show up with a set here, but what is the point on c/r'ing all in on a dry board. If he does show up with a set, though, I'm 100% sure I'm ahead of the tight player, and by having him call off $120 on the re-shove by me, I'm guaranteed to come close to breaking even on the hand.

      Quite honestly I was surprised that he showed TT.

      Delete
    2. The Poker MeisterDecember 17, 2014 at 2:03 PM

      I also realized, I'm missing positions - I was in the CO, tight player was in early position and the bad player was in the blinds.

      Delete
    3. angerisagiftDecember 17, 2014 at 5:22 PM

      ooooooh i feel ya,brother. sorry i didnt xplain my self well. i was trying to say the reason .he was tanking was he thought u or other player flopped the set.

      Delete
    4. The Poker MeisterDecember 18, 2014 at 9:03 AM

      Yeah - that could have been a reason was he was afraid of the flopped set. However, I think all hands I've ever seen play out like that have the original raiser shove his super strong QQ+ hands - even JJ+ hands to close out action against the in position caller (i.e. me). If he re-ships here, I think I have to fold. Since he pauses for so long and finally just calls the additional $46 on top, he screams weakness.

      Delete
  2. Tony BigcharlesDecember 17, 2014 at 1:46 PM

    i too, usually just call preflop others raises when i have JJ

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  3. BrianDecember 18, 2014 at 4:26 PM

    Not sure of stack sizes but i would almost always flat AA/KK to the c/r if I was original raiser. I don't want you to fold.

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    1. The Poker MeisterDecember 18, 2014 at 5:54 PM

      I don't know whether I'd flat or shove there myself in this spot, but I do know that a strong tell in the hand was the huge pause and contemplation about what to do. This was the tell of "marginal hand, what to do what to do" not "how do I extract max value, while looking over at opponent's stack."

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    2. JordanDecember 22, 2014 at 4:55 PM

      I see some merit to Brian's comment. I was thinking that maybe he was taking his time to get your to overcall and get more money in the pot. Of course, if you had a read there, then go with your read. It could be based on things that you cannot articulate in a post or maybe didn't even realize at the time (i.e. subconscious cues).

      Delete
  4. lightning36December 18, 2014 at 10:48 PM

    Are you sure you smelled weakness? Perhaps it was just a poker player who doesn't bathe. Not that we know anyone like that ...

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    Replies
    1. LesterDecember 19, 2014 at 11:41 AM

      Glad you see your rapier wit has returned Lightning!

      Delete
  5. AnonymousDecember 23, 2014 at 8:40 AM

    The JJ hand is an unbelievable joke. As with mostly every single hand you post on here, you played it like a monkey. A "very tight" player raises pre, c-bets the all-undercard flop, and then slow-calls a shove on the flop? And your read of these facts is that he is behind JJ? Oh -- because he paused before he called the shove!

    You are a grade A moron, and this is why you just donate and donate and donate when you play. You think he is calling that big shove with just AK? You said he's very tight, and he's obviously not calling the shove without a good pair, so you basically have to know he has you beat 80, 85% of the time at least. I mean, TT is pretty much the single, only hand in the world that he could have there that you are ahead of, and even that does not really fit his "very tight" persona so well (and thus I'm sure wasn't what he actually had). How would that hand have played out any differently at all if he has AA, KK, or QQ? Do you think the guy with AA there just instacalls the shove? No, not a "very tight" guy -- he would consider the chances of the shover having flopped a set, or two pairs, or a draw first. Every time. So the pause means nothing, except to someone looking to justify making a bad call with a hopelessly beaten overpair.

    But you got it in for $120 anyways. And look, miraculously here on the Mythblog you were right again!

    Real world? QQ-AA, or a flopped set at worst, 95%+ of the time as described. And the shover has you beat with a set a lot of the time too. Go read Jordan's comment a few above this one -- he knows it too, he just doesn't want to say it to you.

    I keep coming back to the same thing, but the fact that these are the hands you think make your poker skills look good, is by far the most unintentionally comedic and ultimately awesomest thing about this blog. Every time I play I wonder how my opponents could be this bad. Then I read here and I understand them a little more.

    I'll make sure to keep pausing before calling big raises when I know I am ahead and there's a fish behind me. While I see the profits coming from doing that, it is so, so great to literally see the fishie mentality at work from the inside.

    Thank you for that, I guess.

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