Fold or no fold? What to do???

The proverbial smoking gun...

Okay - here's a real stone cold whodunnit...  We're deep stacked at a $.25/.50 table today - $80.20 is the effective stack size (I'm sitting on $145.05).  I don't have any real data on my opponent.

I look down at AsQd from the CO and open for a standard $1.50.  I get called by the SB.

$3.50 in the middle, flop is 5s7h3s.  He's got a wide range, but this kind of flop mostly misses any strength save for the obvious sets.  However, I want to charge for any draws he may have.  I cbet for $2.50 and he calls.  No timing tells or anything; he pauses and check raises me for essentially a min raise: $6.75.  With a backdoor flush draw and 2 overs, I call.

$17 in a growing pot, we see our bingo Ad.  Our opponent continues his aggression, though betting a bit on the small side after his flop c/r: $8.50.  I think I call here - I don't see what raising accomplishes; I keep in all his bluffs and open myself up to be jammed on (which I probably have to fold).

River is a 2rd A: Ah.  $34 in the middle.  Final board 5s7h3sAdAh.  I hold trips.  He open jams $63.45 into the $34 pot.  WTF?  Let's play this back: 64 is possible, XsXs - (As6s, As4s are not possible since I hold the As), set of 5's, 7's or 3's.  Does a naked straight draw play it this way (i.e. 6sX)?  This is so far out of the realm of the player base - I have yet to see this kind of action and pressure from this pool.

What do you do here?

I folded - given the action, there's simply too many hands that beat me that act like this the whole way through.  His hands are so slanted towards value with the rivered boat...

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File under: Cooler with needless bloodshed

We're full stacked at $.25/.50 today.  It's a bomb pot, meaning each player sitting puts in a BB and we all see a flop.  There are 3 players at the table, including me.  Nothing notable about stack sizes, other than one opponent has $25 - 50BB.  I have no notes on either player.

Since it's a bomb pot, we're looking at a flop of 3c9dQd with $1.50 in the middle.  We have AsTh.  I've found that more often than not, I can stab at these bomb pots and take 'em down without a fight.  As it stands, we have a backdoor straight draw paired with our overcard.  In other words: we don't have much.

Does that stop me?  In chorus: "NO!"  I take a pot sized stab: $1.50.  It does nothing - I get called in both spots :-(.  Womp Womp.

$6 in the middle and I see signs of life with the Jh rolling off the turn: I now have a gutter and an over, which may not be good.  I check with the full intention of check / folding.  However, it checks through.

$6 in the middle, and I river the nuts with the Kc, making the final runout: 3c9dQdJhKc; I have broadway locked up!  My thinking is go large - VERY large - because any Ten completes the straight and I have a very hidden nuts, having backdoored it.  I make a very bluffy $25 bet into the $6 pot, going for what I think is broke.  My cheeky opponent decides to ship the rest of his $48.35 stack in, and my mid-stacked friend calls his $23.40 stack... WTF????

Nothing too exciting: I'm up against KTo and T8o - for two turned straights who have simple 4 straights.  Not sure why my full stacked opponent felt the need to ship it, but thanks for the nice scoop of $123!!!

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File this under: Don't do that! (second edition)

Just stop.  Seriously... just stop!

Deep stacked at a $0.05/0.10.  We're sitting on $60.59 effective (our opponent has a greater amount of chips as compared to us.  This one comes complete with notes; my notes on villain are "overreps 22; bet turn / riv."  I've added notes since, but he's a fish, to be sure!

He opens to $0.35 and I flat in the HJ with Ah7h along with the BTN.  Perfect hand very deep stacked - it's a nut flush hand, along with the top pair that is going to be good some of the time.  Given my opponent's overplay ability, I'm content seeing a flop with 600BB behind.

$1.20 in the middle; flop is AsAc2h.  Opponent leads for $0.90.  I flat.  I don't think I'm ever getting away from the hand, but I don't think I can call an open shove for 6 buy-ins.

$3.00 in the middle, turn is 5c.  He leads pot, and I happily call again.  I'm kind of kind check down mode but it's costing me each street.

$9.00 in the middle; river is 7d, completing my top boat, and as a matter of fact, the nuts.  No real non-nut hands possible besides a cooler'd better Ace, A2, A5 and sets.  To my delight, he leads again for $6.75.  This train is going to value town!  I ship $56.00 even, which he of course snaps off - proudly showing none other than 3d4d?????  He turned a straight but couldn't fold for a 600BB ship?  My targets were squarely worse boats & cooler'd Aces... a straight was not even on my radar!

Don't do that!

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The 'ole Zeebo back at it!

Apparently Zeebo is a clown

Nearly without fail, people still REFUSE to lay down a boat.  I get a full stack in on the riv when I open overbet shove:

Table is $0.25/0.50.  Sitting on $50 effective and I'm relatively new to the table.  I look down at 5c4c & open to $1.50 - 3x is pretty standard for open.  Folds around to HJ who raises to $4.4, slightly under standard sizing, and certainly smaller than my 3bet sizing to an open.  The HUD on the site is poor, but at least it gives me an inkling of tendencies; it shows he's 3bet before in around 10 hands or so.  I debate 4betting vs. seeing a flop, and go the more passive route.

$9.55 in the pot and flop is a magic 3h5s5d.  I check and he bets $3.35.  I call.  I can make the argument for raising, but I think this flop misses much of his non pocket pair range.  If he has a PP, that's a weak-ass cbet.  I want to keep his bluffs and "made" hands in.

$16.25 in the middle; turn is 8c, completing the rainbow board.  Pretty blank card.  Checks through.  He's either playing tricky or has nothing.

Still $16.25 in the center and river is a 5s, completing my 4 of a kind - otherwise known as the nuts.  At this point, he either has it or he doesn't.  If he has it, the "it" is a boat.  Zeebo's Theorem essentially says, "they never fold boats."  Unfortunate if he has it, and if he doesn't he was likely checking through the river.  I open ship the $42.25 behind.

Not going to lie; I knew he had a hand - and he definitely timebanked all the way down... before finally calling the $42 into $16.  Shows 8s9s; scoop, baby!

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It's not often I'm speechless when playing...

Credit to Jim Manser's album art

Today's hand is from the $0.10/$0.20 tables.  We're heads up sitting on $21.83 effective.

I'm on the BTN and open to a standard 3x with Ah3c and villain calls.  Ax hands are fairly strong heads up.  In fact, when playing HU, I've read that you should be opening ~50% of your hands.  If you apply that metric, Ax is really strong.

Conjecture aside, flop is 3h3dJc - nice flop ($1.20 in the middle)!  Problem is I don't feel like it connects with any of my opponent.  He checks to me and I check.  Can't turn blood from a rock, after all!  If I bet my trips here, there's a huge chance he'll fold and I want him to connect something with his hand.

Turn is a 7s, same $1.20 in the middle.  The 7 completes a little more of my opponent's range: T9, T8, 78, 76, etc.  TBH, if he has a Jack, he's leading here too.  He checks to me again, though.  I consider the above, but again check, not wanting to lose him.  Perhaps he'll get "lucky" on the river and call a strange bet by me.

2s on the river.  Womp Womp.  This doesn't hit anything.  He checks a third time.  Same $1.20 in the middle and I throw a Hail Mary $5.25 bet out there, seeing if he'll fish.  He does.  And shows me As8s for Ace high with 8 kicker?   I mean...  What?  Thanks for the $5.25 gift!

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Straight flushes? Oh my!

This is known as a "Nutting Stone."

I'm mystified at how I made only one bet on this hand.  A little background on me: I get a little spicy when I see a bargain to enter a pot.  Hopefully that explains my speculative call.

$0.10/$0.20 table, effective stacks are $25 (I have $48.73 FWIW).  Folds twice to villain who opens for $1.  BTN calls and I call with Kc9c.

I flop magic: TdQdJd - straight flush.  I'm fairly certain this hits my opponent's range on the head so I check.  Of note, I have stone nuts; there is no drawing out on me with blockers up & down.  He leads for pot: $3.10.  I flat, considering raising will scare away villain.

Ah on the turn, $9.30 in the middle.  This kind of ruins my opponent's hand because unless he has AK, he's going to be less tenacious.  It unfortunately narrows down the hand for his value betting range.  I'm stuck: I can't bet here because I'll scare him, but I need him to have a precise combo.  I check. He checks :-(.

Hopefully, my check turn will make him comfortable because the 9c (an effective blank) falls on the river.  Still $9.30 in the middle.  In my head, I flip a coin: bet/check.  The coin flip lands on check - I'm hoping he finds he still may have value from his range - given that I've been 100% passive the whole hand.  Nope.  He checks through and I'm shown QhQs for a flopped set.

Okay - comments?  I don't need Monday morning quarterback comments; I'm looking for meaningful, "I flopped a straight flush and should have bet the turn or river because XYZ."  Lay 'em on me!

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