I'm dealt KQo UTG, and raise to $11. I can limp or raise in that spot but this time, I opt to raise. Tightish older black guy calls in UTG+1, as do 5 others.
We see a KK8o flop (BINGO). I decide to check since there's not much that can call my lead bet and the UTG+1 bets $15. As expected, it folds around to me and I call.
Turn is an 8, giving me the second nuts to quads. I check again, and he checks behind.
Here's where the action falls: River is an A and I lead for $45 - hoping to salvage some action out of the top boat. I do get action - perhaps more than I wanted (side note: careful what you wish for...) and he raises a step above min to $95.
As I see them, the options are: Raise all in (probably around $300 to start the hand), call the $50 raise, or fold.
Thoughts? Why?
Click to see results
Can I ever fold here with top boat? (Stupid question; I can fold as I choose; if I want to fold quads here, I can fold quads...) Realistically, can I fold top boat? For $50? What beats me? 2 hands: AK, 88. It may be wrong to discount a fold here, but I just can't seem to find the fold button.
The argument for re-raising: Is a tightish player raising 8's full? Probably not. Is a tightish player raising King's full? Perhaps. Is a tightish player flatting AK from early position and raising the river? Very strong possibility. Is a tightish player raising quad 8's? Absolutely. So what value am I getting by re-raising? I probably fold out 8's full. I'm almost never folding out the King's full. So I'm probably not accomplishing anything by re-raising here; only chops and better hands are calling / re-re-raising.
The argument for calling: Much of the arguments above should be recycled here; I'm concerned about AK, 88 and that's it. Is my opponent raising as a bluff or a hand he believes has value given the way the hand played out? Sometimes he shows up with AA, QQ, etc. But I think a tightish player is very rarely raising the river - the traditionally most expensive and costly street.
Therefore, given the above, I opt to call and am shown AKo. Oh well... I still scratch my head as to whether I can find the fold for $50...
One quick edit / addition: If you find yourself in this situation with the tables reversed; i.e. you're sitting on the AK, raise *MUCH* larger than a min raise. You may want to consider shoving in this spot since it is rare that people can fold a full house. I think overall, you get a ton of value from worse hands by raising much larger.
Interesting. Hard to know without a fuller picture of table play prior to the hand, but here's my .02:
ReplyDeleteOdd bet on the flop, 15 into a $77 dollar pot. He checks the turn and raises the river.
Hard to put him on AA if he just called the preflop bet so early in position, but still a small part of his range. He COULD be just calling pre-flop with AK, as that seems common with tight players, but still only a small part of his range. Discounting AA, you're only behind 88 and AK, and ahead of any smaller K.
You've got about $240 behind on the river (I assume he has you covered).
What could he be holding aside from 88 or AK? Would he raise a weaker K there? KJ? K10? Hard to tell without knowing his perception of your play (if you're viewed as loose, perhaps). You chop those hands, but can you convince him you have AA? Preflop raise UTG, tight post flop until A comes on the river....maybe.
A call seems overly tight, but a shove isn't going to get called from anything you beat...and very few players at 1/2 are folding the boat. I suppose you could min raise to $145 to get SOME value if you're good but then fold to a raise? I would say, unless he views you as a very loose player, you're chopping at best. I think it's just a call on the river.
s.i.
Prior play for villain in question is an ABC style - more on the tight side was my read. I've been raising semi-frequently, not enough to put a target on my back, but enough to be noticeable. Table play in general is pretty friendly.
DeleteBang it all in. If he's got it, he's got it 😃
ReplyDeleteNot folding, at least call, with the tight player betting $15 after the flop, you know he has something, my guess would be an 8.
ReplyDeletefold preflop
ReplyDeletei overbet rivers where i got the nuts @nd just KNOW the opponent h@s the next highest monster he will not fold.
ReplyDeleteHow does that apply here, Tony? V didn't overbet the river, he min raised. Are you saying our Hero should overbet the raise? What hand do you think V could have here (tight guy, UGT+1 - how can you put him on an 8?)?
DeleteI think it's either pocket 8s, AK, or AA. Hard to even see him with a worse K, which is still a chop.
s.i.
I think the best thing to do here is just call, based on all the information you gave us. No way you can ever just fold. When I checked the results, the villain had the hand I was guessing.
ReplyDeleteI'd also call, but I'm not a cash game player. So, what happened?
ReplyDeleteDo you guys not see the click for results button / link? If not, the results were:
DeleteCan I ever fold here with top boat? (Stupid question; I can fold as I choose; if I want to fold quads here, I can fold quads...) Realistically, can I fold top boat? For $50? What beats me? 2 hands: AK, 88. It may be wrong to discount a fold here, but I just can't seem to find the fold button.
The argument for re-raising: Is a tightish player raising 8's full? Probably not. Is a tightish player raising King's full? Perhaps. Is a tightish player flatting AK from early position and raising the river? Very strong possibility. Is a tightish player raising quad 8's? Absolutely. So what value am I getting by re-raising? I probably fold out 8's full. I'm almost never folding out the King's full. So I'm probably not accomplishing anything by re-raising here; only chops and better hands are calling / re-re-raising.
The argument for calling: Much of the arguments above should be recycled here; I'm concerned about AK, 88 and that's it. Is my opponent raising as a bluff or a hand he believes has value given the way the hand played out? Sometimes he shows up with AA, QQ, etc. But I think a tightish player is very rarely raising the river - the traditionally most expensive and costly street.
Therefore, given the above, I opt to call and am shown AKo. Oh well... I still scratch my head as to whether I can find the fold for $50...
One quick edit / addition: If you find yourself in this situation with the tables reversed; i.e. you're sitting on the AK, raise *MUCH* larger than a min raise. You may want to consider shoving in this spot since it is rare that people can fold a full house. I think overall, you get a ton of value from worse hands by raising much larger.
I see it now, sorry, senior moment.
Delete:-) No problem.
DeleteI thought for a moment that the link wasn't working - I hadn't used that show / hide javascript in a very long time...
DeleteTPM, Thanks for the poker puzzle! In this case, for me, it was an easy choice and say, "Just call." In 2015, I pretty much changed my approach when seated in a 1/2 and playing older tight players. If I'm not 85%+ sure I got the best hand, I slow down at the end. I might not be maximizing profits but I'm convinced that it is better to slow down than let a tight player take most of my stack because I never play his starting hand the way he played it. So the motto is - save money, don't risk extra money, and wait for a better spot. Now back to the problem at hand, it would be a lot tougher to decide what to do if the villain raised to $140! What do you do? It might be wrong, but I fold and lose $71.
ReplyDeleteThere was a reason I was saving the hand history above; I knew I had already ruled out raising when he raised me... but I was thinking about the very scenario where he raises me a lot larger - and what would I do in that spot... Moreover, what about other (non-Ace) cards that he's raising me? Say T,J? What about different player types who have KJ, KT in their range? I think playing against a tighter guy as described, this is an easier fold, but against a wider, more aggressive player, this becomes more of a cooler.
DeleteYou are much much much more experienced than I in cash games and it's a rarity that I ever agree with Tony on poker strategy, but KQo in early position is an instafold for me.
ReplyDeleteFlushhDraw & Tony - I think you're missing a ton of value if you open fold KQo. There are a ton of dominating hands that will call a raise or limp along -- and for the small cost [at minimum] of one BB to limp a dominating hand and get a ton of value with a Q or K flops should be far more profitable than the open fold.
DeleteHere's my general argument for a call or raise: You're generally getting 3bet (or raised) by AK, and sometimes getting 3bet (and most of the time raised) by AQ, but you can play cautiously post flop depending on your villain (i.e. tight players / players who limpers who limp non-premium hands) and can fold the KQ for the limp or raise. However, if you're not getting raised by KQ, you can reasonably safely play back against all other player types with the expectation that you flopped TPTK... in other words, the dominating hands to KQ are mostly raising, so when you flop Q or K high, it's going to be the best 1-pair hand. By open folding, you're giving up value and implied value against hands like QJ, KJ, KT, QT, K9 (a lot of the time particularly when suited), but only crushed by AK, AQ. Have confidence in your post-flop game to make the reads against those players who don't 3bet AK, AQ and [at minimum] limp KQ.
Sorry - I quickly responded without checking what I wrote. The first paragraph from my response should read:
DeleteFlushhDraw & Tony - I think you're missing a ton of value if you open fold KQo. There are a ton of dominated hands that will call a raise or limp along in kind -- and for the small cost [at minimum] of one BB to limp a dominating hand and get a ton of value with Q or K high flops should be far more profitable than the open fold.
The second paragraph is confusing - I realize that in retrospect. What I'm trying to say is this: there's only 2 hands that have you in real bad shape, AK & AQ. Players generally raise (and sometimes 3bet) those 2 hands. If you're going to open fold KQ, then if you're opting to limp or open raise, then this is an easy fold - folding to a raise always includes AK, AQ among other hands that have you in trouble (AA, KK, QQ). I figure it this way: you're at minimum calling for 1 BB to limp, and you're rarely behind on a K or Q high flop that's been limped. Therefore, the implied money is far greater than the cost of the limp or raise over the long run.
That's why I don't open fold KQ from early position.
call/raise all day (tight guy lets say AA-88,AKs-AJs,KQs,QJs,JTs,AKo-AJo,KQo UTG-2 )
ReplyDeleteso i made some math and u re ahead 86% of the time vs his 8% ....
no idea about vs who u where playing but i guess u had him beaten and my 8 % is prolly still to high ....
better if u ll cut out AA/kk/qq ( his 3 bet range ) if he s capable u re at 88% :P
ReplyDeleteI think I'm almost always at minimum chopping here. His raise, raise sizing and image all put together a profile that says I'm beat / chopping. Is there a purpose of raising a chop when there's a chance I'm crushed? Should I 3bet / call? 3bet fold?
DeleteA player like this is capable of flatting AK, as "it's not a pair, so why go crazy with it..." when in reality he misses a ton of value frequently with that hand - i.e. it's the PF action that AK is so strong.
I think KQo from early position is a trouble hand and should be folded from here.
ReplyDeleteThe question wasn't about the preflop raise though so I won't argue it here.
As far as what you should do on the facing the raise here is how I see it:
Raise all in - I don't see any value in a reraise at all here. What worse hands are going to call you from a tightish player in early position that has shown strength by raising you? I can't come up with any. Even if he lost his head and is raising the 8s full, I don't see him ever paying off a raise here. The only reason to raise here is to get a worse hand to actually pay you off or to get a better hand to fold. I seriously doubt either of these things are going to happen.
Call - The best your hoping for here is a chop, unless there is some wild chance that he misread his hand he, mistakenly, checked the turn trying to slowplay his FH.
Fold - I don't see ever getting away from this hand by the river heads up.
In his situation, I definitely would have bet the turn and then shoved the river. Yeah he might have lost a customer on the turn by betting out but there's a decent chance that the preflop raiser (you) has the case K or a pocket pair that he's married to. On the river there's only two possible combos that beat the AK. A shove here gets called by another AK for the chop or any other K for the payoff.
Keeping in mind this is a live game - why fold KQ? I think a full ring online game, yes fold... But live??? Otherwise, you've summed up my sentiments...
DeleteI only play in live games ... mainly cash. I think it is a hand that manages to get in a lot of trouble especially in a looser game. You're behind to AK-A2,AA-22,KQs,and you're going to be out of position for the rest of the hand. In a loose game where you raise 5.5 x BB and get six callers I think it's safe to say that you are already behind to one of these hands. You may not be far behind on most of them but now you have to decide what to do when the flop bricks. Unfortunately, the flop drilled you here.
DeleteI save unsuited hands like this for the cutoff and button (maybe the hijack or lojack, if I think think my raise will buy the button). In late position with this hand I can punish the limpers with a raise and have way more information even if the flop bricks.
I think it's a matter of style, and you have very logical reasons lined up for not playing those hands. However, I submit that although you should rarely be committed to stacks with a hand like KQ, you're really only dominated by 2 non-paired hands: AK, AQ. There's a ton of hands, and a ton of value, that you miss by not playing KQ - KJ-Kx, QJ-Qx. I find it illogical to fold a hand that is dominated 1/12 of the time, but dominates 11/12 of the time, especially given the realization that I can sometimes lay down the best hand on a K- or Q- high flop because I can fold KQ post-flop. Moreover, this is a top 20% hand... or to be more specific a top 10% hand. With only 5 hands dominating it (AK,AQ,AA,KK,QQ), and all others being a slight favorite (JJ-22) or dog to it (all other hands), why wouldn't you be playing it?
DeleteTo me, the point of being "behind" AK-A2, AA-22, KQs, etc. says that you shouldn't play any hands for fear that they'll be behind. Only play AA, maybe KK, right? That's not how we do it though... There are times when even if we were literally shown AA pre flop, we should call a raise with 56s because of the implied value given the correct player. Heck... we call 22 which is 1/7 of the time going to flop a set, but 6 out of 7 times going to be garbage on the flop (i.e. no matter what, there are ALWAYS overcards on the flop; we run the risk of set over set, better flopped pairs when we don't hit our set, etc.)! Why do we do that? Implied odds and implied money!
Here's what I'm saying in a nutshell: Other players are always calling their Qx hands and Kx hands; if we're not calling KQ which dominates those hands, we're giving up a ton of value.
It's not the cards that you're playing that I object to (yes KQo dominates a lot of the junk that small stakes players play) - it's the position you're playing them in that I'm against.
DeleteI'm not sure but doesn't the flop miss you around 2/3 of the time with this hand? And a lot of times that it does hit you're also facing flush and straight draws to boot. The only flush draw you a can hope for is a monochrome board or runner/runner.
What is the plan when the flop misses with this hand?
Let me take this one-by-one prior to answering your question.
DeleteYes, playing out of position is a horrible ordeal post-flop. What you seem to suggest is folding all but AA,KK,QQ,AK,AQ from EP, no? Those are the hands that dominate KQ, so by extrapolation, eliminate all hands that the range above dominates. So by that measure, one should fold JJ, TT, and [obviously] all non-pair hands. From mid-position, you open up your range to include pairs and broadway and/or suited connectors? Late position gets suited Aces and gappers? It used to be that in an online full ring game, this range works (reason I used past tense is because I'm not certain that's still the optimal range). In a live game, the play is [generally] far more loose - KQ plays as a premium hand which dominates a lot of the would-be calling range. Not only that, but you can get away with limping the suited Aces, gappers, SCs, pairs, etc. and set mine profitably with the players being none-the-wiser. Why would you throw that value away? FWIW, although I've put in significant hours out east here in the DC area, I know this is true for spots in Vegas (my data sample is far more limited, but I can still get away with the limps), and absolutely Denver and Florida areas. It's been awhile since I played in California, but I presume play hasn't changed that dramatically that I couldn't continue to get away with that stuff there either. Obviously, my data points are empirical, and not necessarily the types of games you get wherever you play your live poker, so adapt your game based on geography.
Missing around 2/3 of the time is the same argument you can make with any non-pair hand. I made the argument above that 22 misses 6/7 of the time; should we always fold that hand? 33-99 fare pretty poorly too; there will be overcards on the flop most of the time. Should we not put in any money for fear that we won't like the flop? Even worse, KQ stands behind all Ax hands in terms of equity. What to do? Same thing we do about all other hands in our range... Size up the texture of the board. Size up the texture of the players. Is the flop a paired undercard board (i.e. 774 / 339, etc?)? That's a good flop to cbet. Is the flop Axx? Bad flop to cbet. Are there 20 callers + the table next to us? Bad flop to cbet. Are we headsup with a weak / passive player? Good flop to cbet.
Next discussion topic: facing flush or straight draws. What's the object of the game? To get money in when we're ahead or get a better hand to fold. When our opponent is on a flush or straight draw, we should be charging maximum value for their hand - that's how we're profitable in this game. We do this making reads on our opponents' holdings - and sizing our bets accordingly.
I'm happy to have my customers pay excessively for draws, because in the long run, it contributes to my hourly wage. The last statement is especially true if, when my opponents hit their nut card, I can fold my hand making their big adventure in drawing an unprofitable one. My opponents don't generally realize that the reason they call with their draws is to win money on future streets (i.e. implied odds), not to win what's in the pot (i.e. immediate odds).
So, to answer the last question: What is the plan when the flop misses the hand? I think I answered that above; size up the players and texture, the same as any other hand that missed. If a cbet is profitable, then go for it. If not, check / fold. You shouldn't be going crazy with a hand like KQ - if you're raising, you're not raising more than 3-4x from EP. Just play smart and prudent.
I'm not saying throw away hands such as pocket pair, suited connectors, or broadway cards that are suited. I'm saying I don't play any unsuited hands other than AK-AQ. There might be some value in playing these unsuited broadway cards but it is marginal at best. Yes you dominate a lot of hands but that doesn't make them valuable. Your likely catching top pair if you catch anything. You might get value from 1, maybe 2 streets, it's very unlikely you are getting called by a worse hand on all three streets on most boards that hit this hand. All the while you are vulnerable and out of position. Comparing this to a small pocket pair. Take 33. We're set mining with a hand like this. We don't hit as often as we hit top pair but when we do we're not looking to get value from just a few streets, we're looking to get stacks. That is a "ton" of value. I would say hitting a set is likely the most profitable hand you can hit in hold'em. It's usually well disguised and vulnerable to very little especially when you are comparing it to a hand like KQo.
DeleteI won't argue with the value of charging draws other than the fact that playing the KQs gives you the draw to go with your top pair and the majority of reliable reads comes from bet sizing and patterns which you can't get because you are first to act.
I will argue the C-bet. You're saying to play the hand specifically because the players are loose (most 1/2 live action is) and I doubt that getting so many callers on the table you were at was a surprise to you. With that said barreling into 6 players with almost any flop texture is like burning money.
"I'm saying I don't play any unsuited hands other than AK-AQ." In a loose game, you're losing the potential for a ton of money. In a loose game, your range should open up, but always be tighter than the loose players. That way you can outkick those players and continually "cooler them," which we both know is never a cooler. Try getting in cheap (i.e. limping) unsuited broadway, and sometimes even unsuited connectors (from late position). See what happens. Remember, all you need to do is stack someone once every 100 hands for it to be profitable to limp the hand for the next 100 hands (assuming you always fold those hands post flop in the future). I'm pretty certain you'll get enough value from those hands that is worth far more than the collective costs of the limps.
DeleteOne other comment: I think you're overvaluing the equity of suited vs. unsuited cards. SCs get around 2-5% more equity vs. their unsuited brethren. Yes, it's nice to have a backup draw or a multi-way draw to get it in, but that type of situation doesn't happen all that frequently -- enough to warrant folding offsuit broadway out of hand because of it. On the converse, I'm not suggesting opening your range to include 56o vs. 56s, because 56 as a whole will rarely hit top pair or 2 pair or a hand that you would feel comfortable getting stacks in.
Finally, "With that said barreling into 6 players with almost any flop texture is like burning money." I hope you didn't take away anything I said as being positive confirmation that you should barrel into 6 players. "Are there 20 callers + the table next to us? Bad flop to cbet." I thought was pretty clear that barreling into a quantity of players as a bluff is generally a bad idea.
What you described above as giving your unsuited range as AK-AQ signifies a nit. Look, I realize that everyone has their own goals in poker. You can play for recreation, you can play to pass time for profit, etc. My goal is to maximize your hourly rate. I can't maximize my hourly rate by not playing in hands against the bad (or loose) players.
I'm not a nit; I'd describe myself as LAG but I'm [rarely] playing any connectors and any suited cards. When I'm raising, I'm putting my opponents to the test for large bets whether I'm bluffing or valuing. However, every once in awhile, I'm finding situations where I can see a flop with suited cards or suited gappers.
DeleteFor instance, sitting at a 1/3 game with full stacks, I'm in the BB with J2hh. UTG raises to $8 (a stupidly small raise) which gets half the table to call. Action to me for $5. Almost 2BB extra for a hand that would be VERY concealed if it hits. I call. I spike Jacks up on the flop against a flush draw. We get it in for about half stacks. That hand paid for itself for every future instance of J2s that I ever play. It's normally an auto-fold hand but I was getting far more than correct odds and opted to see a flop for nominal cost.
Another hand: 96o - same EXACT situation; sitting in the SB, someone raised to $8 (stupidly, same player as above who was mystified that I could call J2s against a raise) and I'm one caller out of the cast of thousands. I spike top 2 this time. 96o is an auto-fold hand, but because I threw unexpected hands into the mix, I got a ton of action and value for the hand.
Obviously, these are anecdotal evidence and hands, but the point of retelling them is that regardless the hand, value can be found anywhere - especially at low stakes. I submit that you should consider why you're folding a hand in addition to [what should be always] considering why you're playing a hand or doing an action. As your range opens up, are you folding a hand for fear of being outkicked? It's less likely that you'll be outkicked holding KQ with TP vs. A2 with TP, obviously. To me, though, I haven't been able to get my reads precise enough to get good value from A2-A8 for example, but I'm confident enough in my reads to get lots of value from KQ. So what do I do? I fold A2-A8, but play [sometimes A9] and always AT. Try putting yourself in what seems to be uncomfortable situations and see how it goes.
Now I'm more confused. I play on WSOP ant these cash tables are tight usually running an average 25% tothe flop at best. Live fames much looser. Are you saying raising from EP with KQo is vetter in a loose game than in a tight one. From thepreviouscomment I was pkanning on opening up my range ever si slightly to include KQ from EP, but because I play online are you saying this is unadasvisable??
ReplyDeleteNot at all. I am saying that a looser tables allows opening KQ from EP, but online is a different game from live. I am not suggesting anything about your online game - I'm simply saying that KQ in a live game can be limped or raised - and likely should not be folded from EP - particularly at low limit NLHE.
DeleteSo far as online play is concerned, I'm in the worst downswing I've ever seen - so I wouldn't take any advice about online games from me even if I were offering... My online game is so bad right now - and I can't even begin to figure out whether I'm running bad or playing worse - it's been a long time since I've played online, so I acknowledge the games have changed. However, have the games changed that much that these players are playing nuts only poker - and even the fish hit every hand. I've been called down by Ace high countless times to a bluff shove; have the low limit players all of a sudden gotten super smart and know to catch bluffs like that? When I do hit my hands, I'm rarely getting paid, and when I do get paid, they'll suckout on the next card. It's astounding...
DeleteRaise all in and may god be with us.
ReplyDeleteLOL